(Almost) duplicate markets

First off ...

Dupe markets are a problem, and shouldn't be allowed.

The question becomes, "how close do the markets questions/posslble outcomes have to be in order to be classified as duplicate?"

I think it depends on the subject matter.

In the samples Jenniandboys provided, I think that while the creators ask the 'question' somewhat differently, they are dupes. One is yes/no, the other spreads the options over 3 multiple choices.

I prefer the question where there are 3 choices in the case of the DOW, but for other markets the yes/no options are best.

It should be left up to the category admin to determine the best of breed question, and void the other(s).

Close duplicates have an adverse impact on the game, imho.

Thank you for the invite to express my opinion, Jenniandboys.
As an author for the last few days of the question "Will Dow open up", I'll try to defend why this question is not a duplicate of the alternative. Although there are simmilarities, the two represent different views of the same thing; one is detailed, the other is pure and simple. There is no contradictory between the two, nor the one exclude the other.
The 'simple' form of the question is the elder one from the two and it exist since the first day of Hubdub.
I think that there'll be good if we apply a broader understanding on 'what is a duplicate'. Not every time when it appears that two questions asked the same thing in a different ways, this should be considered as duplicate. Offen, one ask something slightly different, or more focused, or bring the attention on a particular detail of some event. I do not think that a restriction on this matter would be positive; in fact, such an approach would 'shrink' the interress and the possibilities of a different point of views on the same event.
I had a previous case when one of my questions felt victim of pretended duplication. I asked if L.Hamilton would win in Malaysian F1 GP, but this was voided because it would be a duplicate of the question 'Who will win" (one of many). I do not think there was a duplicate and that this one was voided correctly.
Here is the same - one ask one thing, the other ask something other.
The reason why I started to create the 'simple' question is that I like it more than the detailed version.
May be should be considered one other reason why the simple question is prefferable, About a week or 10 days ago an user created the same question (Will Dow close/open up) with the explanation that the detailed question can facilitate gaming or cheating. Jenniandboys asked why and how this can be made. I don't know if there was an answer, but in other discussion the answer is given - here, comment # 17, second part: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/When_w...

So, in my opinion, there is no duplicate and the simmilarity souldn't be a reason for voiding.

On the other hand, I do not insist on that and if the community agree and accept this as a duplicate, I will stop creating these questions, of course.
I didn't want In any way to oppose Bayoubear questions and I much appreciate his efforts to create them.
Please, pardon me for my bad english. I'm really sorry for not being able to express myself in the way I think and can do in my native language :).

I like the difference between the two. Some mornings one is more suited to the market outlook than the other (based upon the potential swing of the opening). I get the feeling that if someone doesn't like a particular question, they don't want anyone else who appreciates and understands these questions better from profiting from them. Allow both of these different questions to exist. Quit nitpicking and do more of what this site is about, predicting the news. If you don't like those questions, vote with your dollars on another question. This site has way too much discussion about the rules and not enough about the news.

I enjoy the difference. I tend not to go with the multi-tiered questions concerning where the DJIA opens because I just don't have the time to look into it in the morning. How the DJIA opens, up or down, I can handle that based on morning news reports on the radio. I think categorizing the questions as duplicate would be ridiculous.

The cited example questions in the beginning of this discussion had very different results (click on them to see what happened). One resolved as closing down. The other ended in a narrowly ranged middle. Similar wagers would have produced disparate results. A savvy market watcher would have stayed away from the narrow one today due to a lack of predicted volatility. Instead they would have done a simple up or down. On other days when strong open is expected, the other question would be more suitable. The difference in the results of these questions today should be a partial demonstration that they are materially different.

Let us not remove choices from the people who perceive a difference. This is different from a simple date shift.

Thanks, Jenni And Boys, for creating this topic!

Duplicate markets have bugged me too -- and I've commented in threads, sent flags ... and now, if I do flag a market, the flag, more-often-than-not, expresses the sentiment of "I think this is a duplicate -- unless, of course, it's not".

I don't know how this needle gets threaded -- and I don't think I have any particular clarity on how to thread it ... however, hopefully, because you created this discussion we can get a lot of input, and eventually sew something together!

First -- regarding the DJIA markets that you asked about ... personally, I like (read: sometimes predict on) the "simple up/down" market. I don't have time, talent, or the interest, really, to participate in the other.

But can I argue against a position that those aren't "duplicate markets"? No.

Matter-o-fact, likely anything I say in these comments "for" or "against" a particular "duplicate" market, could be re-worded to support or not-support that same position.

In brief, the type of "duplicate" markets that bug me the most are:

"Will Hillary Clinton drop out of xxx by April 27, 2008?"
"Will Hillary Clinton drop out of xxx by April 28, 2008?"
"Will Hillary Clinton drop out of xxx by April 29, 2008?"
"Will Hillary Clinton drop out of xxx by April 30, 2008?"

The current slew of "Olympic Torch" questions is another example of "duplicate markets that bug me" ... I made predictions on two of the early ones ... but now just pass the rest of them by, without even reading them.

Sports questions: one can create, probably fifty (50) separate markets for each and every MLB (baseball), NFL (football), NHL (hockey), NBA (basketball), etc., etc. individual game.

Who will win?
How many innings/periods/overtime?
What will be the point spread between winning & losing team?
What will be the total points (runs/goals) of both team?
Will the final score be odd or even?
Will player x play?
Will player z steal a base?
How many foul balls will be hit?
What team will hit a foul ball first?
What team will hit the fourth (4th) foul ball?
... ad nauseam.

The Olympics questions are just starting -- and I don't look forward to it.

In my view, Hubdub is fast becoming overrun with sports questions, vs. "news" related markets, however that's a topic for a separate, thoughtful, forum topic.

As it is, the number of markets currently in play (suspended) about The Masters and Tiger Woods is, well, amazing. (And I'm a fan of professional golf -- and love Tiger Woods!)

And, like the DJIA question(s), while the multitude of "Masters/Tiger Woods" questions bug me, other users, no doubt, like them.

Then ... there are the "duplicate markets" that I have created!

There are a wealth of "Who will be the next Vice President" questions -- even within the same party. Well, one of those was mine:
<http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_J...>

I was interested to see if either of two, specific, candidates would be chosen by John McCain.

Is it a "duplicate"? I think, yes.
Does it likely "bug" some other users? I think it might.

So ... I get annoyed, and annoy others. ;-(

Moving on, to a different, related, point, Nigel posted, above:

• A question will be considered a duplicate if its true forecast probability is 95% or greater similar to an existing question (e.g. ‘Will candidate X drop out of the race by March 3rd?’ would generally be considered a duplicate of ‘Will candidate X drop out of the race by March 2nd?’)

95% about right? Too high? Too low?

What I don't know about this is how a "duplicate question matrix" is created and how ranking points are assigned to the variables, such that one can "decide" if a question is a duplicate. (95% sounds OK to me -- but I'll defer to others on that.)

While things of that nature are definitely not my strong suit, I can see how it may be easy to apply rankings to the "different date" question examples you give (and that I commented on earlier as "bugging me the most".

That said, as we try to gain some clarity on the more complex "duplicate/similar" market questions, it may be beneficial to try to determine how to rank these other questions, and arrive at a more comprehensive solution.

i think if a market isnt something like the clinton example it should be ok..if the people who understand the market feel its ok then i would go by their thoughts since i know nothing about the stock market..there is already so much overanalysis and thinking on questions and answers as it is i wouldnt want people to be discouraged from creating questions because they think it might get voided which may be a reason u c so many sports questions..and i havent even done any in a while..:)..but after the ebay auction question (my personal favorite) and spitzer i think many are gunshy to-a-create certain questions and b-tie up their money in markets where they may get something at a great price early..have it go up at a nice profit..then have the question suspended..then have it voided..not only do they not have a chance to cash out their profit but their money was tied up not only in the original market but the whole time a decision was being made..sports are ez to find definite answers to and dont tie up ur money long term..of course there are many ways to do sports questions as was stated above but u can even find out if the fourth pitch was a foul ball..the sports questions have really gotten plentiful which is fun for some but not others and i guess some of them can be seen as not news but they r predictions just the same..i like sports but i really enjoy the other types of questions on this site and im hoping as the kinks get worked out in terms of more common sense settlements and more understanding of what will and wont get a question voided people will feel more confident that if they create a question it will stand up if reasonable and a settlement will be reached close to after the settlement date...also hoping there is more consistency across category people because i get the sense each one suspends, settles, unsuspends in different ways..just my thoughts