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"Will North Dakota Reach -50 degree tempuratures" Prediction
I made no prediction on this topic, I just happened across it, so I have no dog in this fight. That said, the settlement of this prediction as "Yes" was absolutely, beyond any doubt, wrong. The topic asked about temperature, not wind chill. It makes no difference what the poster of the topic meant to say. Temperature and wind chill are not at all the same. Consult any dictionary for verification. Based on the actual topic as phrased, the answer can only be "No".
I’m annoyed
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Tell me when someone solves it.
The more people who report this problem, the more it gets noticed.
The more people who report this problem, the more it gets noticed.
The best solutions from the company
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@electroaffinity: We're still deciding how to deal with gamers. It's more likely we'll fine them than ban them outright.
@4d: The question has been voided which means you should have had your original stake back.
@Volodya: Your points have been noted, thank you. If one were to assume Fahrenheit and take the correct definition of temperature then I agree the correct answer to the question is No. However, the issue is whether those assumptions were intended by the question creator and universally obvious from the question. In our judgement they were not. On Celsius vs. Fahrenheit, I agree the question creator probably meant Fahrenheit but to an international audience this may not have been clear. In addition, it is in fact questionable whether the question creator was referring to true "temperature", as creating a question about the -50 point makes more sense if wind chill is taken into account (actual temperatures are highly unlikely to reach below the -20s).
Hubdub cares very much about being transparent and responsive. We could have chosen to ignore the lengthy discussion surrounding this question but instead have spent several hours collectively trying to resolve it. Our decision to void the question reflects its indisputable lack of clarity, given there are no established case histories or standards to ensure all users would have made the same assumptions when predicting. As such we are (1) modifying the site to encourage question creators even more to be as specific as possible in their question creation; (2) launching a public 'case history' resource AND a list of standard interpretations in an effort to create the "level playing field and well-defined, evenly applied rules" we and our users want.
The company and 1 other person say
this solves the problem
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Thanks to everyone participating in this discussion. The three issues in play are:
1) Is the question clear enough to be valid at all?
2) If so, what is the correct answer?
3) Was this question used to game the system?
Our conclusions are as follows.
1) Is the question clear enough to be valid at all?
No. Given that two critical factors in determining the outcome are not specified in the question (a: Celsius or Fahrenheit; b: is wind-chill to be taken into account), the question is not valid.
2) If so, what is the correct answer?
Without a clear question, this cannot be answered.
3) Was this question used to game the system?
We are conducting a site-wide audit of questions and users suspected of gaming the system and will deal with that issue separately.
Action:
The question has now been voided.
This is the final action to be taken on this question, and to avoid similar ambiguity in future we urge all users to be as specific as possible when creating questions.
Here at Hubdub we're in the process of learning how best to deal with situations such as this, and all your comments have been very much appreciated. In these early days it's likely we'll err on the side of voiding questions, until we've built up a standard set of conventions for settling otherwise ambiguous questions.
Thanks again for your well-made points and background research.
The company and 2 other people say
this solves the problem
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Hey all,
I always knew the weather was popular but never this contentious!
I'm going to review this in the next couple of hours and then I'll share how I think we should resolve this. There are a number of options we can take:
(1) Let it stand
(2) Void it which results in losing predictions have their stakes returned (but winners retain their winnings)
(3) Resettle as 'No' which will result in 'No' predictions winning (but 'Yes' predictions will retain their stakes)
In parallel with this I think it is clear that we should build up 'Big Book' of common understandings that are the default unless specified otherwise e.g. temperature is in Fahrenheit, temperature does not/does include wind chill etc.
The company and 1 other person say
this solves the problem
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Inappropriate?Here's a direct link to the wrongly settled prediction:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_N... -
Inappropriate?i also think this is a wrong settlement...in your settlement details, you gave two links...the first is from the national weather service and doesn't have a single temperature below -50 degrees...the second link is from an AP story which says the overnight low was -54 windchill. the question doesn't mention windchill at all and considering that low temperatures are usually in the early morning hours it would have occurred AFTER the question closed. NOWHERE in either of these articles is there a time with a temperature reading of less than 50 below zero. in fact the lowest temp i can see is -28 on the 29th of january. it seems as tho since one of the people involved is one of the top users and bet alot of h$, you simply went with his answer since even your own links don't back him up.
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Inappropriate?If it's true that
"2 Hubdub employees are here listening and participating"
please feel free to chime in any time, if only to say you're "investigating the problem" or something. -
Inappropriate?they have changed it from "settled" to "temporarily suspended"
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Inappropriate?Guys, you cannot argue with logic.
Question: What is the National Weather Service recording of -54 f degrees in Garrison, ND?
Answer: A temperature. Not an opinion, not a guess, not "it seems like," or "would've felt like," not a coefficient, it's a temperature.
Question: Did it reach -50 degrees?
Answer: Yes.
If it wasn't recorded on scientific instruments, journalistic integrity would require the Associated Press to cite that it "may have felt like -54f." But that's not what the article said. It said the National Weather Service said -54 f was achieved. -54f is a temperature. Why not 200 f below or 5 f below? Because -54 was recorded and measured by them, if only in Garrison, ND.
The first settlement link contained readings ONLY from Bismarck, ND. The lows occurred in Garrison, ND, many miles away.
http://www.wndu.com/weather/headlines...
-54 f was recorded, NOT calculated with a formula- recorded. If the station only took public readings once an hour, and they said -54 f happened, it's obvious that the lows occurred in between the website data points. That doesn't nullify that it occurred. They can't list 100,000 data points per hour on their website.
Even though -50 f was achieved, and I won, fair-and-square I'd be willing to return my wager profits (not capital) on this one and have the whole question voided just to restore harmony here. But in the future, no crybabies... ;-) -
Inappropriate?ok...lets continue this here then....1)i've posted many different links, all from weather services including the national weather service and weather.com and on none of them does it have a temperature reading of -54 2) the one and only link u can come up with is from an ap story not a weather service 3) windchill will not make a thermometer read a lower temperature, not a single thermometer in the state of north dakota read -54 degrees at any time in january 4) at weather.com, link here: http://www.weather.com/weather/pastwe... the only place where it says -54 is under a column stating "felt like" while the actual temperature reading says -19 5) the lowest for the state in weather recording history for that date that i can find is -42 6)NOWHERE in the question does it say anything about windchill, only TEMPERATURE 7)when they record temperature, they do not take into account windchill, only the reading on a thermometer....if you would like to post a link from ANY weather service, not simply a one line quote from a news story, that says the TEMPERATURE was less than -50 degrees, which your link doesn't even say, it wouldn't be a problem, but since you can't even find one and i can find multiple ones to back me up it seems as tho you were wrongfully awarded as having the correct answer and it smacks of favoritism because you bet such a large amount of money...why is it that no one else is backing you up but multiple people are saying it was settled incorrectly? because your wrong.
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Inappropriate?You can't draw any reasonable conclusion from that source, though. It says the WINDCHILL in Garrison dropped to -54. Windchill is not the same as temperature. Windchill is a calculated figure based on a combination of temperature and wind speed. -
Inappropriate?So, Blue Sea Miami, you're claiming that -54 f actually was visible on an actual thermometer in Garrison ND? You can't really believe that! The fact that some ND stringer for AP filed a badly worded report says nothing at all about journalistic integrity, although it may well speak to journalistic competence.
I’m Baffled & dismayed
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Inappropriate?he just gave me another number...8)windchill is a "factor" not a "temperature"..it is called windchill factor which according to dictionary.com: 2. Mathematics. one of two or more numbers, algebraic expressions, or the like, that when multiplied together produce a given product; a divisor: 6 and 3 are factors of 18....in other words, it's a combination of temperature and windspeed, not just temperature.
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Inappropriate?Merriam-Webster's Medical Dictionary - Cite This Source - Share This
Main Entry: wind·chill
Pronunciation: 'win(d)-"chil
Function: noun
: a still-air temperature that would have the same cooling effect on exposed human flesh as a given combination of temperature and wind speed called also chill factor, windchill factor, windchill index
windchill factor /?w?nd?t??l, ?w?n-/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[wind-chil, win-] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun Meteorology.
the apparent temperature felt on the exposed human body owing to the combination of temperature and wind speed. -
Inappropriate?While actually quite stimulating at first, we're debating in circles. It's Friday-- time to enjoy life away from the PC for awhile! For some reason, no one is refuting the points I've made. Because you cannot. A temperature of -54 f was registered by the National Weather Service in Garrison, ND at some point.
If anyone feels the question wasn't specific enough, which perhaps it wasn't, then that's a very valid and separate issue that needs to be addressed. Lets not confuse the issues.
What is -54 f? It's a temperature. Come on people, a thermometer in an open field when blasted by continuous +30mph icy winds will read lower! Not at ambient!
Read carefully: For the last time-- I'm fine with voiding the question and returning my gains from this wager. I'd still be at $13,000 anyway. Under the parameters and structure of the question asked, I won, but this is getting absurd already and becoming an endless-loop debate over a seeming ambiguity.
Void it, set me back to $13,000 and I'll see ya at $25k next week...
A good weekend to all!
BlueSeaMiami -
Inappropriate?Your only point is that "a temperature of -54 f was registered", which there is no evidence of. We have a news report that the area experienced WIND CHILLS of -54 f.
A wind chill of -54 f does not mean that the temperature was -54 f. It means that the combination of wind and temperature had the same chilling effect as a -54 f temperature with no wind.
Let's say it's -30 with a windchill of -45 (which it was in my area, earlier this week, but in celcius). Does that mean a thermometer would read anything lower than -30? No! It _does_ mean, that if I left a glass of water outside, it would freeze as quickly as it would on a -45 day with no wind. That hunk of ice would still only get down to -30, though.
Windchills provided by weather services are there to give an idea of what it _feels_ like, outside. It's provided as a relative temperature figure because it's easier to relate to than kilocalories per hour per square meter. -
Inappropriate?Hey all,
I always knew the weather was popular but never this contentious!
I'm going to review this in the next couple of hours and then I'll share how I think we should resolve this. There are a number of options we can take:
(1) Let it stand
(2) Void it which results in losing predictions have their stakes returned (but winners retain their winnings)
(3) Resettle as 'No' which will result in 'No' predictions winning (but 'Yes' predictions will retain their stakes)
In parallel with this I think it is clear that we should build up 'Big Book' of common understandings that are the default unless specified otherwise e.g. temperature is in Fahrenheit, temperature does not/does include wind chill etc.
The company and 1 other person say
this solves the problem
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Inappropriate?Wait, there is no way to refund winners and losers after the fact without one group getting there winnings?
This then leaves a huge hole to continue to "Game" the system. Who created the temperature question in the first place. Might it be someone who added a second account and subsequently made a huge profit?
The question was absolutely wrong and should never have made it past the first flag let alone go to completion.
All stakes should be returned with no winnings given to either side.
I’m confident
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Inappropriate?I posted this as a comment; probably it should be here also:
Mr. or Ms. Miami (don't know you well enough to call you Sea), are you perhaps being just a bit disingenuous? I think you know perfectly well why people are "whining", as you put it. I'll spell it out anyway: I'll take your word that analysis is your life; it doesn't matter. It would be one thing if you rose to the top in a month, or maybe even two weeks. But, no matter how shrewd, clever, or lucky you are, I very much doubt that it's possible to amass nearly H$30,000 in less than four days without gaming the system. (I don't call it cheating, because the rules thus far are so vague and ill-defined that I'm not sure what "cheating" would mean. I don't even fault you, really.) Don't be surprised if others who didn't try to cut corners are annoyed to fall behind. I don't pretend to know exactly what methods you've used, although I do find it interesting that jaybob58102, the ostensible creator of this prediction, hasn't commented even once. Without casting any aspersions, "tempuratures" was a nice touch. -
Inappropriate?Nigel, electroaffinity is right. It may be too late in this instance, but you guys really need to be able to roll back a bad settlement or void to where it should have been, otherwise people so inclined will have every motivation to continue to misbehave. I suppose option 3 is your best choice right now.
pics4d-- if I read option 3 right, he would keep his stake (presumably substantial) but at least lose his winnings. -
Inappropriate?basically, since they already awarded him the money, he gets to keep it whether he "cheated" or not, the best we can hope for is that they give us our h$ back or reverse the decision and give us winnings too...in any case he still would have "gamed" the system and made a lot more out of it by posting a bogus argument in my opinion.
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Inappropriate?Thanks to everyone participating in this discussion. The three issues in play are:
1) Is the question clear enough to be valid at all?
2) If so, what is the correct answer?
3) Was this question used to game the system?
Our conclusions are as follows.
1) Is the question clear enough to be valid at all?
No. Given that two critical factors in determining the outcome are not specified in the question (a: Celsius or Fahrenheit; b: is wind-chill to be taken into account), the question is not valid.
2) If so, what is the correct answer?
Without a clear question, this cannot be answered.
3) Was this question used to game the system?
We are conducting a site-wide audit of questions and users suspected of gaming the system and will deal with that issue separately.
Action:
The question has now been voided.
This is the final action to be taken on this question, and to avoid similar ambiguity in future we urge all users to be as specific as possible when creating questions.
Here at Hubdub we're in the process of learning how best to deal with situations such as this, and all your comments have been very much appreciated. In these early days it's likely we'll err on the side of voiding questions, until we've built up a standard set of conventions for settling otherwise ambiguous questions.
Thanks again for your well-made points and background research.
The company and 2 other people say
this solves the problem
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Inappropriate?soo....do we get our money back...not that it matters much really...just something elsefor me to bitch about
1 person says
this solves the problem
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Inappropriate?Tom Griffiths wrote:
"1) Is the question clear enough to be valid at all?
No. Given that two critical factors in determining the outcome are not specified in the question (a: Celsius or Fahrenheit; b: is wind-chill to be taken into account), the question is not valid."
This decision by hubdub's "official rep" is sufficiently inept and simply wrong as to probably cause me to lose interest in participating in hubdub. This question has a correct answer: NO. "Celsius or Fahrenheit" really should have been specified, but it's entirely reasonable to assume Fahrenheit is intended in Garrison, North Dakota, USA. More important, there was no need at all to specify temperature with or without wind chill. THE TWO ARE EXACTLY THE SAME THING. As as been repeated many times on this thread, temperature is a measurement, wind chill is a calculation. There is no ambiguity in the question in that regard, none at all. I'll stick around hubdub long enough to give you guys a chance to respond to this; depending on that response, I'm probably out of here for keeps. Hubdub is a great idea, but it's fun only if it's transparent and responsive, with a level playing field and well-defined, evenly applied rules. Until this decision, I thought you were really trying; now I doubt it very much. -
Inappropriate?For the record:
1) I began one week ago ranked #2,000+ or something with $1,000 to bet with.
2) I only have ONE account [BlueSeaMiami].
3) I don't have any affiliation with HubDub or any of its partners.
4) I don't cheat. I have an exceptional analytical mind. It's my profession and how I make a living.
5) A large part of my gains have been derived from guessing whether the Dow Jones Industrial Average will close higher or lower and from the political primary outcomes.
6) Though I was #1 before the question, I'd offered to return my profits from the weather bet. That's called confidence in one's self. Many of you lack that.
6) Even without the weather profits, if you're smart and bet BIG, as I do, you can go from $1,000 to $13,000 in less than a week, too!
Some of you would never make it in the real world with real money trading stocks, futures and betting on sports with big money-- you win some, lose some. We're talking virtual dollars, people. Quit whining and move on.
I’m confident
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Inappropriate?@electroaffinity: We're still deciding how to deal with gamers. It's more likely we'll fine them than ban them outright.
@4d: The question has been voided which means you should have had your original stake back.
@Volodya: Your points have been noted, thank you. If one were to assume Fahrenheit and take the correct definition of temperature then I agree the correct answer to the question is No. However, the issue is whether those assumptions were intended by the question creator and universally obvious from the question. In our judgement they were not. On Celsius vs. Fahrenheit, I agree the question creator probably meant Fahrenheit but to an international audience this may not have been clear. In addition, it is in fact questionable whether the question creator was referring to true "temperature", as creating a question about the -50 point makes more sense if wind chill is taken into account (actual temperatures are highly unlikely to reach below the -20s).
Hubdub cares very much about being transparent and responsive. We could have chosen to ignore the lengthy discussion surrounding this question but instead have spent several hours collectively trying to resolve it. Our decision to void the question reflects its indisputable lack of clarity, given there are no established case histories or standards to ensure all users would have made the same assumptions when predicting. As such we are (1) modifying the site to encourage question creators even more to be as specific as possible in their question creation; (2) launching a public 'case history' resource AND a list of standard interpretations in an effort to create the "level playing field and well-defined, evenly applied rules" we and our users want.
The company and 1 other person say
this solves the problem
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Inappropriate?Thanks for responding Tom. I'm not satisfied though. I daresay, one can find ambiguity in any prediction, if one looks hard enough. For example, let's consider the Super Bowl question presently atop your "most activity" board:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Patrio...
Seems straightforward, but what is meant by "win"? The team that scores the most points? The team that covers the point spread? Perhaps the Giants can "win" a moral victory by sacking Tom Brady three times? I'm not suggesting that this question is truly ambiguous and should be voided; of course it isn't, and shouldn't be, although for Las Vegas, the point spread is precisely what's meant by "win". But equally, the ND weather question, as worded, has precisely ONE correct answer: NO. There is one, and only one, temperature measurement system in general use in North Dakota: Fahrenheit. There is one generally accepted definition of temperature that's germane to this prediction. I would actually have preferred it if you'd voided this on the grounds that there is no such thing as "tempuratures"!
I’m Verging on boredom
1 person says
this solves the problem
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Inappropriate?Nice to see all the discussion, but why not return the staked amount only after a question is voided. No one should profit from a voided question!!!
I’m confident
1 person says
this solves the problem
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Inappropriate?Apparently, they don't presently have the ability to roll back profits that were realized before a question was voided.
1 person says
this solves the problem
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Inappropriate?guess what i just found out...i can prove blueseamiami gamed the system...the link he put up says the windchill went down to -54 on the morning of the january 29th, but when he placed his bet, it was after that....so he saw the report, made the bet, waited till the question ended and sent his link in...kinda shady miami
1 person says
this solves the problem
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Inappropriate?excellent sleuthing 4d!
not suprising bluesea won't fess up.
these comments by him on tempurature v. windchill strengthens my prediction: " If I hold a thermometer in an open field and an icy wind blows on it,what happens to the temperature reading? Nothing??? Of course something happens, the temps go lower."
"Important: Measured temperatures/recorded temperatures are influenced by wind chill."
(huh?)
And when they shout: "What is -54 f? It's a temperature. Come on people, a thermometer in an open field when blasted by continuous +30mph icy winds will read lower! Not at ambient!" -
Inappropriate?Wrong again, 4d. I don't cheat. I saw the question was open and took a wager based on a very strong hunch. I was thrilled but not at all surprised to find out I was right.
Anyhow, I lost the $9,000 I'd won on the SuperBowl on a confirmed program bug issue. NOTICE, I didn't cry or whine-- I took the loss even though it set me back 33%. That's called being a man. And low and behold I made all back in less than a week. So I guess ALL the money I KEEP MAKING is from gaming the entire stock market also, huh? Lmao--
And Shadow, you're still whining and still in the bottom 1000 members... Nice job.
I’m confident
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Inappropriate?yeah...ok...anyone who can read can see for themselves what really happened and how you twist things around, i'll just let them make their own decisions and hope hubdub decides to reset everyone after beta...anyways just leave me alone, quit following me around on the comment boards and we'll be fine ok....we just have different views on the subject and i don't much like the outcome, but obviously the staff is fine with what happened or they can't do much about it, whatever....u drop it, i'll drop it and we'll all be one big dysfunctional hubdub family.
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Inappropriate?again, blueseamiami is so far from the truth, as I predicted.
don't know where he gets my standing as bottom 1000. I have always been in the top 200 from Jan.30th and currently top 60 for the last week.. keep 'em coming bluesea.
brings up a Q, is there a way to see other players position below the top 20?
any tips greatly appreciated.
I’m perplexed
EMPLOYEE
EMPLOYEE
