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EMPLOYEE
Any objections to me making predictions?
Just after we launched we placed the limitation on category editors that they couldn't place predictions on questions in their category. That was to ensure that there was no hint of a conflict of interest when settling questions.
At the same time I placed the restriction on myself that I would predict on any categories as I thought questions would get escalated to me for resolution. In actual fact questions that get escalated go to Get Satisfaction so I don't play that role. Additionally, the tech category is now handled by Tom.
Not being able to make predictions has meant that my understanding of how the site actually works isn't as good as it should be. I've no idea how challenges work and I generally only find about about bugs from contact notes and emails. Our focus over the next month is to really improve the core game element of Hubdub and it is tough to do that without actually playing it.
So I am proposing that I release myself those self-imposed constraints. All my predictions will be public so you can have full insight into how terrible a predictor I think will probably turn out to be.
Any objections?
At the same time I placed the restriction on myself that I would predict on any categories as I thought questions would get escalated to me for resolution. In actual fact questions that get escalated go to Get Satisfaction so I don't play that role. Additionally, the tech category is now handled by Tom.
Not being able to make predictions has meant that my understanding of how the site actually works isn't as good as it should be. I've no idea how challenges work and I generally only find about about bugs from contact notes and emails. Our focus over the next month is to really improve the core game element of Hubdub and it is tough to do that without actually playing it.
So I am proposing that I release myself those self-imposed constraints. All my predictions will be public so you can have full insight into how terrible a predictor I think will probably turn out to be.
Any objections?
I’m excited
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Inappropriate?you are falling behind on the leaderboards, aren't you?
hehehe.
it's fine for me though when the conflicts of interest do not affect you.3 Comments
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This answers the question
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Admins should be allowed to play. But i propose they should be not allowed to play within their working hours. Just like us. And if they do so (just like anyone else of us here), they should risk punishment by their employer! It's just fair that they get a close feeling for the situation of the average player. -
The admins have a very progressive employer who sees that playing Hubdub is good for their cognitive and team playing skills. In fact it is encouraged :-)
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But I work *all* hours. My idea of an hour off is to create questions on Brazilian football :(
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Inappropriate?I think all admins should be allowed to wager on questions. I think they should have thier wagers on markets they might settle made public. I am sure if any of them were to settle a market based on thier own predictions there would be an uproar. Maybe if a admin wagers on a market they should place it in the comment field. That might help bring transparency to the site.
1 person says
this answers the question
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Inappropriate?I've always thought the admins should be permitted to wager outside the category for which they are responsible. I do think they should exercise caution to prevent any hint of conflicts of interest.
So Nigel, if you are no longer responsible for settling markets, I see no reason why you should not have free rein. -
Inappropriate?Nigel,
I also think that you should be allowed to make predictions as long as you have no admin role. Many of the users are of course using the site for the market/wagering side of things. But over the past few weeks I'm slowly appreciating how both the ups and downs of the market AND the very existence of a market is an indicator of a news development. Your instincts on creating markets has been terrific. I'd like to see your instincts on the predictions as well.
Also, while you take up this new role in your site, please consider that a player who with weak performance in the predictions may be a star creator of markets. The two roles are interlinked, but not dependent on one another. Consider how Hubdub can strengthen both of these roles as you begin to participate as a user.
I’m happy
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Inappropriate?I also think that you ought to make predictions! -- for all the excellent reasons you enumerated, and more.
With open predictions, I don't think that it's necessary, or even a good idea, to also have an admin state a prediction in the market's comment field.
I think it's "too bad" that category editors can't play in the areas they likely enjoy the most :-( but I agree that's the price of "perception" that must be paid.
"In actual fact questions that get escalated go to Get Satisfaction so I don't play that role."
As an aside, (as you know), since my most recent non-satisfaction escalation, I've been sending escalation requests via Contact Us email -- where they have been promptly resolved, rather than posting them here in the Get Satisfaction forum.
My understanding is that the purpose of Get Satisfaction will be sharpened in the days/weeks to come -- however until then I'll continue to use the "Contact Us" route.
I’m wondering if there will be another Leaderboard created just for admins ...
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Inappropriate?I agree that you should get to bet! Also agree (with most here) that category admins should _not_ bet on their own categories. Also feel no need for their other bets to be made public. As long as there is no conflict of interest, bet away.
As an aside to Newswranglers above aside: we currently have 5 ways to talk to you guys: Commenting, flagging, getsatisfaction, 'contact us', and email (I think I have nearly all of ya'lls emails now!). Some guidance on what you expect us to use each for and how much urgency you apply to each would be helpful.
I’m using ya'll in a sentence!
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Inappropriate?So did people see that the Patrick Swayze dying question was settled 4 days early. The question reads will he die before april 15, but question was settled today as a NO. I agree there was news story saying he was doing well, but that doesn't mean anything. So now if he does die, you will resettle the correct way, but everyone will get ot keep thier winnings, even those who were on wrong side of question.
I don't like this at all. Life and death is not 99.9 percent of anything. I think this question should be used as an example of what not to do. And it was settled by Nigel, didn't he just tell us he didn't settle questions anymore. -
Inappropriate?I am not responsible for any categories but time to time I do settle questions (mostly to speed up settlement).
I settled that one earlier based on the 99.9% rule. Given the reports I thought it highly unlikely (i.e. <0.1%) that he would relapse and buy the farm within 3 days. Therefore I moved to settle it early. Did we not discuss this around the question of whether this was a news prediction site or an event prediction site? -
Inappropriate?I thought the idea was to use common sense. Call me silly but when a quesiton asks if something will happen by a certain date, shouldn't we wait for the date and then if the news reported or didn't report we settle. If a question asks about an event with no date, and we get news reports that seem to provide 99.9% clarity then we settle.
I don't like this 99.9% rule at all. Whether or not a news agency reports on news is either yes or no. Take the Boeing contract question in which Airbus was awarded contract, boeing filed appeal, but question was settled. I agreed with the settling, the question asked who will be awarded the contract, and Airbus was awarded it, taking into account the appeals process seemed silly then. And now fast forward to the OOXML standard question and it was declared the standard, but wasn't settled because of a potential appeal that could be filed (none was filed at the time). I simply am asking for clarity. Lets do it one way all the time.
In regards to news prediction versus event prediction, I have stated many times I like the news prediction side of the argument. What we have to determine is does the news settle the question accurately. If it does settle, if unclear, then suspend question and discuss it and make decision. If it is determined that question is not able to be settled due to an error with question, then we should void and move on. -
Inappropriate?Oh the communications question, the guide would be:
Commenting: Probably 50/50 on whether it gets picked up, depends on the category and question
Flagging: Cat eds get an email and a flag appears on admin view. They will resolve it when they get to it. They generally don't respond though.
Settlement request: Cat eds get an email. They wil either settle or put up a clarification
Get Satisfaction: All 10 of us geta an email. That can actually be a bad thing as sometimes we assume someone else is looking at it. We've changed the process so the person on contact form duty should respond
Contact us: Goes to the person on contact form duty. You will always get a response here although they may have to forward it to the category editor
Email: I always like getting email and I always respond. Probably isn't as fast as the contact form though
With question escalations best to either flag for review or send to the contact form. It is only when the category editor can't figure out the right answer (or their is disagreement) is the question then escalated to Get Satisfaction. -
Inappropriate?Nigel,
I recommend starting a separate thread on communication protocols. Once the users participating here and the admins reach a consensus, there will be a posse of Hubdubbers clarifying the policy to the HubPolloi. Also the FAQ should be amended to reflect the community (admin and user) consensus.
Regards, AAA
I’m maybe not such an average american ... I like to predict questions in the world category!
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Inappropriate?Nigel, I saw recently you put $H1000 on yes for "will Jesus return in 2009." I have no problem with you betting openly. Seriously ladies and germs, perhaps limiting the amount admin can bet eg $100 or $200 or something like that will ensure that (with most questions) dividends paid back are minimal. I understand that betting $100 on "Will George W Bush admit to IMing gay White House interns and using Barney the dog as bait for wild sex acts with them" YES at 0.5% may result in an unexpected windfall, but overall this kind of restriction would no doubt keep the admin down amongst the bottom feeders while allowing them to have the full and deep sensorial thrill of being a hubdub user.
I’m thinking that we're mixing up H$ with real $. Let staff screw up just like the rest of us!
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Inappropriate?I trust the administration to do what is best for the common good. I also think, since this is their "baby", they would not jeopardize it or our trust. So go for it, Nigel! And join in the fun.
I’m supportive
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Inappropriate?Nigel, I say bet, bet westward young lad!
and you forgot to say that we can contact you (and other admins I think) on Skype! (and possibly IRC & Ventrilo soon)
I’m happy Nigel can get the adrenaline(sp?) rush of being a hubdubber!
1 person says
this answers the question
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Inappropriate?Thanks everyone for their input. I'm 24th out of 32 on my weekly friend leaderboard now! (If anyone has a return of less than -1.2% I am accepting friends :-)
@ AAA Good point, I will feed that into the site refresh
1 person says
this answers the question
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Inappropriate?
Just after we launched we placed the limitation on category editors that they couldn't place predictions on questions in their category. That was to ensure that there was no hint of a conflict of interest when settling questions.
Nigel,
Have these limitations on category editors making predictions within their category been changed? -
Inappropriate?Yes, category editors can make predictions on their category provided all their predictions are public. In hiring category editors wanted to bring on the most enthusiastic users in that category. Having someone passionate about the category I believe is best for everyone.
Also, as all cat editor predictions are public all their actions can be scrutinised. We also have a clear escalation path should it be felt the rules have been broken.
Nigel -
Inappropriate?Sounds good- as usual. I think you do a mighty fine job at making things work.. BTW, is there a CAT editor opening? I am an expert on that topic- teeheeteehee.
I’m amused
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Inappropriate?I personally believe all category editors, Hubdub admins, and Hubdub super users should be able make predictions on all market questions, including ones they create. However, it should be required all predictions they make, whether on their own created questions or not, should be made public.
So far, I haven't seen any evidence of any editors, admins, nor super users using their position to their advantage, etc. regarding predictions, but do believe it will best serve Hubdub if all of their predictions are required to be public.
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Inappropriate?Ladylara - well the dog thing is covered by Jenniandboys. She has a two headed dog from Hades. Photograhic evidence and testimony from concerned neighbours point in that direction. Anyway, please go for the cat thing though. Hub needs some cat people, it's very dog-like at the moment.
I like Russian Blues, Ladylara, and that's a very pretty name, BTW. Where do you live? I'm 39, live in Japan and and am single, but so far it hasn't been anything to do with the drinking problem. I mean being single, not living in Japan, although people do like a beer now and then here, especially during the summer. Which it is now. Where was I?
Anyway, I think everybody should bet on everything. Go Hubdub!!
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