Loading Profile...
Clinton Delegate Market - Escalation
This concerns the market "Will Hillary Clinton be awarded delegates from Florida and Michigan?"
The market thread can be viewed here:
<http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_H...>
In my view, this market has been mis-handled by the last comment in the market thread made by Ryan. For nearly three months, the clarifications on what this market meant have been consistent ... as well as confirmed.
Then, his last comment, in the opinion of virtually everyone who has commented in the thread since (who have predictions on both sides of the market) was a complete reversal, and Spitzed the market.
I am too tired to go into it here at this moment, but I did want to open the discussion.
I would ask you to read the market comments which include most of my thoughts on this issue.
I would ask that this market not be voided until a discussion can be held, and any alternative solutions to voiding be proposed.
The market was Suspended by a Super User, and remains suspended. Note that my first post to the thread after Ryan's, had a missing html tag, resulting in every comment thereafter being underscored. I have reposted a corrected version of that comment, and asked that the malformed comment be removed. Hopefully that will have been done by the time folks read the thread.
The market thread can be viewed here:
<http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_H...>
In my view, this market has been mis-handled by the last comment in the market thread made by Ryan. For nearly three months, the clarifications on what this market meant have been consistent ... as well as confirmed.
Then, his last comment, in the opinion of virtually everyone who has commented in the thread since (who have predictions on both sides of the market) was a complete reversal, and Spitzed the market.
I am too tired to go into it here at this moment, but I did want to open the discussion.
I would ask you to read the market comments which include most of my thoughts on this issue.
I would ask that this market not be voided until a discussion can be held, and any alternative solutions to voiding be proposed.
The market was Suspended by a Super User, and remains suspended. Note that my first post to the thread after Ryan's, had a missing html tag, resulting in every comment thereafter being underscored. I have reposted a corrected version of that comment, and asked that the malformed comment be removed. Hopefully that will have been done by the time folks read the thread.
1
person has this problem
I have this problem, too!
Tell me when someone solves it.
The more people who report this problem, the more it gets noticed.
The more people who report this problem, the more it gets noticed.
Create a customer community for your own organization
Plans starting at $19/month
-
Inappropriate?I was the one who suspended this market. I didn't want there to be anymore activity until this market could be clarified and discussed. I have posted my comments about what I feel should happen on the comment section of the thread.
The problem is that when an category editor says something will settle in one direction and then later gives different methodology for settling the question, what are users to do. In this case some cashed out as soon as they can and took a loss, others decided to hold out and try to get the question clarified over and over again. I feel that we should try to eliminate these problems, especially in a market with this much activity.
I feel with this market all that can be done to make people whole again is that those users who have current positions in the market should be voided out. Those that took an unfortunate loss, should be compensated the amount they loss, so they are no worse off for cashing out, than those who stayed in and got a void. There unfortunately are going to be some who profited from this and I doubt any of them will voluntarily give up those profits, which is fine. I just think in order to make everyone feel better about hubdub we try our best not to have many of these problems and when they are noticed we work extremely quickly to fix the problem.
I would like to hear from the admins on this issue as well. -
Inappropriate?Ryan said in his latest comment:
" So this will be settled as a yes if the votes from Michigan and Florida are counted and used towards delegates.
"if the votes from Michigan's January 15, 2008, primary (which did not include Obama on the ballot), AND the votes from Florida's January 29, 2008 primary are counted, and used to award delegates to the convention. Whether or not there is any form of a "do-over" has no effect on settling this market." "
This contradicts itself by saying "If the votes from Michigans ... AND the votes from Florida's January 29, 2008 primary are counted", but then saying "Whether or not there is any form of a "do-over" has no effect". How can this be? This says the votes from the original primaries must count; if there is a do-over the original votes would not count!
I’m sad
-
Inappropriate?Skipper -- I would not have selected that post of mine as the one that would provide the most clarity. I agree that this last message is (still) confusing.
That was Msg #3 in the comment thread, made almost 3 months ago. At that time there was still the possibility of "do-overs" in Florida and Michigan.
When the possibility of do-overs was deemed to no longer be viable, there were further, updated clarifications in this HD market.
I would have chosen a post of mine from two days ago (Msg #21):
In order for this to settle as "Yes", the votes from Michigan's January 15, 2008, primary (which did not include Obama on the ballot), AND the votes from Florida's January 29, 2008 primary have to be counted, and based on that count, delegates are awarded to the convention.
If the Rules Committee allocates (any number of) delegates from Florida and/or Michigan based on anything other than the counted votes from those two primaries, this settles as "No".
Ryan, have I (still) got that right?
Ryan confirmed my understanding of that, yesterday, in Msg #24:
Yep your right on the money newswrangler.
Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
I had the (whimsical?) thought that this market has, to some degree, mirrored what has happened in the "real world" with the Clinton and Obama campaigns.
The market was created ... way back when ... there was still the possibility of do-overs ... The possibilities for what could happen with Florida and Michigan seemed to grow exponentially as both campaigns, replete with attorneys, maneuvered to "define" the outcome of the states -- and the nominee.
This market has evolved in some ways, in a somewhat similar manner.
I dunno about the HubDub Rules Committee though -- maybe it won't be that long that these discussions are also televised live ;-) -
Inappropriate?I did not select your post Newswrangler, but Ryan's
-
Inappropriate?Yes, I know.
Ryan's "last post" was a copy/paste of my earlier comment (which was asking for clarification).
He introduced it as "Actually newswrangler clarified this best very early on so go by this descriptions which I think is very clear and seeing as my clarification are just making things worse this should do it. "
When he said "this", he was referring to my post/comment.
Unfortunately, as I said above, that was an earlier message (#3), and I would have used #21. -
Inappropriate?I did not see the _this_
EMPLOYEE
EMPLOYEE
