Delta and NWA merger settlement
Hi everybody, I am keen to avoid a potential Spitzer in this market and have therefore escalated it to Get Satisfaction. The market in question regards a proposed merger between Delta and Northwest airlines, and the question asks if it will happen "before June 1st".
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_D...
The "Spitzer clause" in the rules for the politics category (2.3.1) is of obvious relevance and I think a good outcome would be to end up with a rule for similar circumstances in the Business category.
My personal position would be to settle yes if they announced a merger tomorrow, but I know some will have differing viewpoints if they don't actually become one company before June 1st. Therefore I am very interested to hear your views so that a sensible conclusion can be made if they do announce a merger. As always please reveal any positions you have in the market.
Thanks,
Andrew
Hubdub Business Category Manager
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_D...
The "Spitzer clause" in the rules for the politics category (2.3.1) is of obvious relevance and I think a good outcome would be to end up with a rule for similar circumstances in the Business category.
My personal position would be to settle yes if they announced a merger tomorrow, but I know some will have differing viewpoints if they don't actually become one company before June 1st. Therefore I am very interested to hear your views so that a sensible conclusion can be made if they do announce a merger. As always please reveal any positions you have in the market.
Thanks,
Andrew
Hubdub Business Category Manager
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Hi everybody, after reading your replies here is the solution I propose;
If a market states "will company X merge with/acquire company Y", then it will be settled based on the event of completion as in too many cases the proposed deal may fall through. Obviously markets can be created stating "will company X officially announce", but unless stated otherwise the event will cause settlement. Therefore with timing issues the event will matter rather than the announcement. I feel this is the clearest solution and allows both types of market to exist.
I realise that there is no painless solution for the two markets currently suspended, but for reasons of consistency, I feel it is necessary to apply this approach. Therefore I will reopen them.
Regards,
Andrew
Hubdub Business Category Manager
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Inappropriate?I have no money on this market and I feel it should be settled when they announce it, in par with the Spitzer clause
I’m happy to help avoid another Spitzer Fiaso!
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Inappropriate?I have no money on this market and I feel it should be settled when announce that the merger has taken place, contrary to skipper's position.
Lot's of mergers, takeovers, etc., are announced, but some don't get done.
So, the question is "will (they) merge", not "when will they announce", with all good intentions, etc.
So, when the pictures are flashing, and another stock ticker bites the dust, that's when they are merged. jmho
I’m amused but glad to help prevent a spitzeroid.
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Inappropriate?I think we would have to apply whatever outcome is decided to this market as well ...
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_wi... -
Inappropriate?the problem with spitzer was he announced his resig but said it was official on the monday..if they announce it then it should go through but if they say it is going through pending the approval of the pilot situation then it should not until the pilots approve..if mergers announcements arent going to be enough to settle these then people wont bet on them because now we are saying mergers are announced but may never be actually done or they shouldnt bother putting suspend dates...this is just my opinion but i think these should be settled unless there is a stipulation attatched and then that stipulation would have to be met for settlement..if there is not a mention of the need for pilot approval then they are proceeding anyway..whatever the outcome i hope it is resolved quickly and doesn't linger and will be consistently applied across the board
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this solves the problem
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Inappropriate?I don't have a position in the markets.
I feel that when a question doesn't specify whether they are looking for the announcement of merger or the actual merger we should then weigh in with the 99.9% rule. If the announcement leads to a merger 99.9% of the time then the announcement would be enough to settle it. I know that in no case should we settle a market based on the announcement of an upcoming announcement. As was done in this market: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_wi... interesing point is that it was done at 8:16pm a full 30 minutes after this question was escalated. I have asked for the above mentioned question to be unsettled, suspended until a decision can be reached. The above question was settled using a source not in the settlment details.
Back to the point of this thread. It seems that airline mergers don't happen everytime an announcement is made. It seems there are alot of potential problems with an announced merger that must be smoothed out. I think we should either specify a question is about the "announcement" of a merger, or whether a merger will take place. If we were to specify in the question, then there wouldn't be any grey area, if question asked for announcement, it is easy to tell if announcement was made, if question asks for an actual merger to take place, then that is also well documented. -
Inappropriate?I can announce I'm going to the moon tomorrow - doesn't mean I'll do it.
Mergers in this environment are not guaranteed to be completed, especially with the way the airline industry is going. Unless it's announced as complete by June 1, this should settle NO. -
Inappropriate?if the boards and the companies are announcing the merger what more guarantees do we want?..what if there is a merger and then somebody sues like the shareholders or something?..the merger of a company could always have something come up...not only in this case but others..if they said we are merging in may then i would say no i guess if we are spitzering (is that what we established?)..these questions continue to cause problems because there is always a "what if" attacthed..we cant plan for every contingency and this is the type of thing taking away the fun and the purpose of this i think..it should be a fun game with common sense settlements and if something changes then settlements can change..whatever the ruling is as i said b4 whoever the rep is just decide what u think is best asap and lets move on with a way for these things to be settled without relying totally on the question creator because if they are new they may not undestand all these specifics we r asking for in the details..with 5,000 users there are bound to be different versions of common sense which is y the establishment of a protocal is important but we seem to be working on learning from past episodes and working on eliminating or at least cutting down on repeating them..i hope..)
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this solves the problem
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Inappropriate?Announcing an event officially should settle all questions. Things can ALWAYS change in the future - but we can't wait 3 years for delta and northwest to complete a merger. Settle the question as a Yes and if someone wants to post a new question saying "will the delta and northwest merger fail" then do that. It's a different question,
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Inappropriate?http://www.kutv.com/content/news/loca...
Delta Air Lines Will Take Over Northwest, Become World's Largest Carrier
Last Update: 9:02 pm
Print Story | Email Story
A Delta Airlines jet departs Hartsfield Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Atlanta Monday, April 14, 2008. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
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A Delta Airlines jet departs Hartsfield Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Atlanta Monday, April 14, 2008. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
SALT LAKE CITY - Delta Air Lines has reached an agreement with Northwest Airlines to take over Northwest and create the world's biggest carrier.
The boards of both companies gave the deal the go-ahead Monday. Delta said the combined airline will be based in Atlanta and will retain its name. Delta CEO Richard Anderson will head the combined company.
The announcement comes a year after the two carriers emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Both carriers are losing money again but are in much better shape than the four much-smaller airlines that have filed for bankruptcy or gone out of business in recent weeks.
The joining of Delta and Northwest, if approved by regulators, will result in combined annual revenue of $31.7 billion, vaulting it ahead of American Airlines for the top spot in the U.S.
Delta would be the biggest carrier in the world in terms of traffic, before any further domestic capacity cuts and any divestitures that might be required by antitrust regulators.
Salt Lake City mayor Ralph Becker on Monday expressed great enthusiasm toward the merger, saying that Delta has been an important company in Utah for many years.
Congratulations to Delta and Northwest on this new chapter in their history. We have appreciated Delta's presence here in our capital city," Becker said in a statement Monday.
Northwest Airlines planes dominate the runways at the Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport in Minneapolis, Monday, April 14, 2008. (AP Photo/Andy King)
Northwest Airlines planes dominate the runways at the Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport in Minneapolis, Monday, April 14, 2008. (AP Photo/Andy King)
"I am hopeful Salt Lake City can continue to partner with Delta to enhance our historically strong relationship and address concerns of the airline employees and our airport that may arise during the merger process," he added. "I see this as a great opportunity for Salt Lake City to further share our great resources, from our beautiful natural setting to our increasingly cosmopolitan city, with the rest of the world."
The agreement comes after several months of merger discussions between Delta and Northwest and at one time between Delta and United Airlines. Analysts believe a Delta-Northwest combination will stand up better to regulatory scrutiny because the two carriers have less overlap, even though a Delta-United combination could create more scale and have greater synergies.
Years of mounting losses forced Delta and Northwest to file for bankruptcy protection in New York on Sept. 14, 2005. Both emerged from bankruptcy as leaner carriers last spring, after shedding billions in costs during their reorganizations.
While in bankruptcy, Delta fended off a hostile takeover bid by US Airways.
Delta said its plan to remain on its own would create more value than US Airways' $9.8 billion bid, which Delta argued would not pass regulatory hurdles.
Northwest and Delta overlap relatively little in the U.S. — which could actually help them gain antitrust approval. Delta's routes are strongest in the eastern U.S. and to Latin America and Europe. Northwest would complement that with its near-lock in the Midwest along with flights to its Tokyo hub and other points in Asia.
I’m happy
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Inappropriate?What was deleted from the above article was the references to how tricky the dealings will be with the pilot unions, and the anti-trust approval that is needed for this deal to be complete.
I believe if a question doesn't state specifically whether we are wagering on the announcement or the event, it should be assumed we are wagering on the event. And if there is a likelihood of greater than .1% then question should not be settled as it doesn't comply with the 99.9% certainity rules. This simply could have been solved if the question was clear, I when I first read the question and saw the date and gave it a common sense reasoning, assumed it was implied that the merger would have to have approvals from everyone by that date. Announcing you intention to merge without a 99.9% likilihood that the merger will go through doesn't settle this question as it is written.
This is still in agreement with the Spitzer rule, because 99.9% of the time when a person announces a resignation they resign, the examples of it not occurring are very rare.
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Inappropriate?99.9..what does that mean?..if there is one group out of all the groups involvd in this deal not agreeing to it does that mean 99.9 are?..are we saying that less than 99.9 of these mergers get done?..once again 99.9 means something different to everybody...to me settling the swayze question didnt make sense days b4 but it did to somebody who thought that was 99.9 despite a fast moving cancer type and a situation where any info released could have been misleading..i dont know but i would have thought we had a way of answering this by now i guess
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Inappropriate?This really does have eerie similarities to the Spitzer market -- unfortunately I actually bet on this one (a whole h$40!).
I also read the question "Would a merger actually take place" by the June date. There are a lot of steps between an announcement of intention and the merger actually happening. This is the key difference I see between this and Spitzer. There was no real reason to believe he wouldn't *actually* resign 4 days later. Here, there is good reason to think that this deal could fall through. I'm happy to keep the question in suspense until the deal is approved, although I'm guessing others here would complain about that idea.
In the future, announcement of mergers should likely be the default settlement of these question (as they are the ones which make the news) unless the creator makes it very clear they are asking about the probability of follow through.
I’m sad most people aren't using the little emoticons!
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Inappropriate?@scottay ...
"but we can't wait 3 years for delta and northwest to complete a merger. "
we don't have to. We only have to wait until June 1st, 2008. Then, if the merger has been completed, we have a 'yes'. if not, we have a 'no'.
Pretty simple, eh? -
Inappropriate?Hi everybody, after reading your replies here is the solution I propose;
If a market states "will company X merge with/acquire company Y", then it will be settled based on the event of completion as in too many cases the proposed deal may fall through. Obviously markets can be created stating "will company X officially announce", but unless stated otherwise the event will cause settlement. Therefore with timing issues the event will matter rather than the announcement. I feel this is the clearest solution and allows both types of market to exist.
I realise that there is no painless solution for the two markets currently suspended, but for reasons of consistency, I feel it is necessary to apply this approach. Therefore I will reopen them.
Regards,
Andrew
Hubdub Business Category Manager
The company and 1 other person say
this solves the problem
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Inappropriate?I cashed in and took my gains - which were much less than expected.
You have a serious problem here. Common sense is not being followed.
The question was will they merge by June. Clearly the person who made the question was referring to an announcement and not a completion.
That's how the question should have been decided.
Once again you have let the "spitzer" group convince you of something that is against the total grain of common sense.
I’m frustrated
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Inappropriate?FYI you should have settle this based on what I said above and THEN made a new rule.
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Inappropriate?I agree with Andrew. Unless question specifically asks or states in settlement that an announcement is what is looked for then we should settle when it is 99.9% clear it will occur.
To address Scottay concerns, I would simply say that is why we have the getsatisfaction site so we can discuss as a community what we would like to see. And then as a group make a decision. It was obvious that you were invested in the market and didn't disclose that as was asked by Andrew, and that I believe swayed your outlook on this. Having an opinion is great, and when you disclose your bias, that helps others understand the position a little clearer. I disagree wholeheartedly that the question creator had clear intentions that an announcement would settle this, if that is case adding the phrase, will these two announce a merger would have been all it would have taken. A common sense reading of the question asks will they merge, and merging and announcing a merger are distinctly different.
I’m Happy common sense ruled.
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Inappropriate?I disagree completely. The questioner wanted to know if there would be a merger by June. He meant announcement.
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Inappropriate?How do you know what he meant. You didn't create the question. So now we are to believe that you know. Are you a mind reader, do you have inside information the rest of us don't know. The reason this was escalated is because there was differing opinions about the meaning. And the majority of people decided that the way question was written was to mean would merge be complete or at a point in which it was 99.9% likely completion would be accomplished. I again state that if question creator was so explicit in the meaning why wasn't the word announcement used? Especially with all the controversy.
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Inappropriate?I am a mind reader. You've found me out.
Common sense. Why would you create a question with a timeline for a merger to be complete without SAYING that THE MERGER MUST BE COMPLETE. -
Inappropriate?Well the good news is that we no longer need to ask the community anything, all we have to do is ask scottay. This is great, no more worries, no more escalating questions, this is gonna be great. Do you have your own website or something to make it easier.
A person would create a question anticipating the word merge would mean that the act had to be done, otherwise they would use the word announce. -
Inappropriate?Actually I have a blog http://icantseeyou.typepad.com/. I started it with a post about HubDub a few months ago. If you want my advice you can send me an email to icantseeyou@comcast.net. I'll decide anything you wish :>
I’m happy
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Inappropriate?Hello HD...
I have no wagers on this market.
But I do have 20+ years experience in the airline industry and have been involved, personally and professhionally in multiple airline mergers, acquisitions, marketing linkages and dissolutions of ties between airlines, these are my points of reference.
Although I infer that the original author was speculating between a couple of potential merger partners for Delta; Northwest and United Airlines... the exact wording of the short question has lent itself to a variety of considerations. My personal opinion is that to settle for a yes there will need to be a suspension of stock trading by either Delta or Northwest Airlines stock prior to 12:01am on July 1st. United+Delta will not happen during the month of June.
Although many airline mergers are imagined, some are announced, less actually occur; various work groups and Congressional oversight have the ability, and history has proven, to disrupt this process.
Perhaps a better, more precise way to create these kinds of questions would be to say something like: "Announcement from boards of airlines X & Y w/ intent 2 merge within a 24 hours period by 7/1/08?" or "Will stocks of airline X or Y no longer be sold due to merger by 7/1/08?".
Those are my thoughts.
I’m confident
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