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How do we structure RCP Average Markets?
We've had a bit of a foul up regarding the RCP markets. In the current case although the market was settled on time, new polls came in which skewed the averages after the market had been settled thus making the original settlement false.
RCP was reporting a tie but new polls came in and changed the averages. As infernalmachine pointed out RCP is unstable as the averages are always changing as new polls come in. The problem were having with this market is the same that happened regarding earthquake markets, in that some polls are late to come in and therefore skew the results.
Because of this I think if we want to do anymore of these markets we need to come up with an exact time to settle the market. I'd propose noon on the next day (EST) so that sufficient time is given for the polls to come in. The problem which will develop though is that an admin won't always be around at that exact time to settle the market so I would have to rely on timestamped photos of the webpage, and the problem with this is that users might alter the timestamped photos.
So what do people think? How do we work with the RCP markets to make them fair and not volatile?
Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
RCP was reporting a tie but new polls came in and changed the averages. As infernalmachine pointed out RCP is unstable as the averages are always changing as new polls come in. The problem were having with this market is the same that happened regarding earthquake markets, in that some polls are late to come in and therefore skew the results.
Because of this I think if we want to do anymore of these markets we need to come up with an exact time to settle the market. I'd propose noon on the next day (EST) so that sufficient time is given for the polls to come in. The problem which will develop though is that an admin won't always be around at that exact time to settle the market so I would have to rely on timestamped photos of the webpage, and the problem with this is that users might alter the timestamped photos.
So what do people think? How do we work with the RCP markets to make them fair and not volatile?
Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
I’m undecided
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Inappropriate?Two imperfect suggestions:
1) Attend to future situations like this in the manner you suggest. Chances are you will get more truthful settlement evidence than doctored evidence.
2) In the case at hand: Since there was probably 1 user paid off the "tie", resettle the question in favor of BOTH the tie and the correct answer. This should leave nobody with a bad taste in their mouth since the only failed wagers will be legitimate and indisputable. Most people will regret losing H$ of their own under questionable circumstances. Nobody should feel bad about someone else making H$. -
Inappropriate?I think there is a significant difference between this and the earthquake markets in that there is an EXACT number of earthquakes on a given day, we are just having trouble determing what that # is.
Here we are asked what an average will be on a given day. So you go look on that day and see what the average is.
I did make a little h$ on this question (about 200 if I remember right), but I do not think that is coloring my opinion: I don't see why the original settlement is "false". The market asked for the average after 1800 on the 28th. So at 1800 on the 28th, the average is 0. Why is that not the answer? Just because the next day it says something else doesn't matter.
That said, I do see that changing #'s make this harder to settle. I think polls usually come in during working hours EST, so if they could be settled anytime between 1800 and 0600EST the #'s should stay consistent. I agree with markov that I think users will be honest in settlement requests. If you get snapshots that don't match, that should serve as a red flag for that user.
In the long run, I don't really care what is decided. I'll pass the results of the discussion back to tri if he decides to make another question. -
Inappropriate?Here is the conundrum on this particular question:
The settlement details indicate "This will settle AFTER 1800 EST on the 28th to allow time for weekend polling to come in."
The word "AFTER" is not the same as "AT" and the "allow time for weekend polling to come in" indicates the desire to include all time appropriate polling results. Thus, settling "AT" 1800 PST could be (was) in conflict with including all of the time appropriate polling results.
The RCP site currently depicts the polling results for the period "04/20 - 04/28" differently than they did "AT" 1800 PST. Yet, the polls at the center of the question, though slowly reported, were for the time frame in question.
That having been said:
It is TRUE that "AT" and at points "AFTER" 1800 PST the RCP site did show a tie.
AND
It is TRUE that "weekend polling", once posted for the period ending April 28th, did indicate a different outcome.
IMHO, given the wording AND the spirit of the question, BOTH the tie and the actual polling outcome are correct answers, despite what would superficially appear to be mutually exclusive events. There appears to be supportable and credible reasoning behind both perspectives. -
Inappropriate?I will resettle the market so that the other winners win as well. Besides that though we still need some more discussion regarding how future markets will be structured regarding RCP.
Chris told me to today that he might be able to design something that grabs the webpages at certain times, but we still need to decide on a time.
Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
I’m confident
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Inappropriate?Ryan,
Good call.
I don't remember if the RCP site showed the results at the time of the tie as:
"RCP Average 04/20 - 04/28"
as it does now, or if it simply showed the current date. Perhaps there is some indication on their site as to when they make it "official" for a given time period. If there is, that might help. Maybe an e-mail to RCP might clear up the question.
Also, for this type of question, and others, Chris' possible ability to grab web page snapshots might prove very useful.
Hope this helps. -
Inappropriate?I like the screen/page grab ability. That would be great. Can you fix the game clock though, so the page grabs aren't an hour off? This or something like it would be great for Hubdub-related questions too. I've got a bunch of these questions that I'm holding onto until there's a fair way to decide them.
For RCP questions, I'm fine with the question writer setting a time and then HD grabbing the page at that time. The only reason I brought up this problem was that in checking the page used for settlement, the results had changed.
I’m happy
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Inappropriate?InfernalMachine,
That was a good observation you made on the RCP situation. If you hadn't spoken up the problem would have gone unnoticed and probably repeated. Thanks! -
Inappropriate?if a time stamped-page captured is used will it be posted for betters to see? if by no fault of admin's he-she ain't around to get the time stamp-page captured who will the admin use..the person who made the question? -
Inappropriate?This problem can be solved by requiring the question be settled at a particular time, this should be a time in which the admin or category editor have agreed is possible for them to monitor this question. I have suggested in other threads that we assign admins to watch the website at particular times. If an admin was in charge of the site for a set period then they would be able to capture the question at the appropriate time. Having the question suspend at the time will stop any wagering after results are known, and then when a question suspends should be flagged to admin to determine if action is needed.
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Inappropriate?I'm thinking (hoping?) that the page grab can be automated (the question creator can request one when they create the question). That shouldn't be that difficult - there's a number of tools out there to do this. The question is where to store these, how to allow access to them, and presumably how long to hang on to them
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Inappropriate?i guess it has been settled and resettled. now settlement details says
This question was settled Yesterday 9:33am PST
Winning outcome:
Clinton leads by 0.1-5.0
using these rules given by the question creator:
if that is the case can ryan please fix that on my account? -
Inappropriate?It seems that we are resettling everything nowdays. I think I should start taking positions with no probability of winning, and then arguing or at least make a silly argument and then we will settle so everyone wins.
I am opposed to resettling questions so everyone wins. If a question needs resettled then those who gained from the original incorrect settlement should not be rewarded for having a losing position. I think we are trying to make everyone happy and in the end it is making everyone more apathetic to the process. The current default thinking is oh well wager what you want, you can always get your bet cancelled or having the question settled numerous times so you win. It is no wonder sports questions are dominating this site, they offer clear settlements.
It feels to me that this whole mess got started back with the spitzer question and since then we have been hesitant to do anything without a big long drawn out discussion, and then nothing happens unless every possibility is covered. Why have category editors or admins who are suppose to remain unbias, if we aren't going to let them do thier jobs. They make a decision and that should be it. Lets hold them accountable for thier mistakes, if a category editor is making numerous mistakes settling markets, maybe they shouldn't be settling markets. I would rather go by the theory of you can't please everyone all the time, rather than this lets all be winners philosophy that seems to be taking over on hubdub.
EMPLOYEE
EMPLOYEE
EMPLOYEE
