How should markets regarding the Florida (re-do) primaries be settled?
Well it seems Florida is at again. It seems to cause trouble whenever it gets its hands in something. The problem faced right now is with the following markets:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_F...
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_a...
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_F...
Now whats happened is that the Florida DNC is stating that they will not hold any new primaries or caucuses. But even though they have stated they won't hold new ones, the DNC might attempt something, but very doubtful. Here are news stories related to the news story:
http://apnews.excite.com/article/2008...
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/03/...
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/1...
What I plan to do is settle the markets stating that no new primaries/caucuses will be held due to the Florida Democratic statement. How do people feel about that?
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_F...
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_a...
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_F...
Now whats happened is that the Florida DNC is stating that they will not hold any new primaries or caucuses. But even though they have stated they won't hold new ones, the DNC might attempt something, but very doubtful. Here are news stories related to the news story:
http://apnews.excite.com/article/2008...
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/03/...
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/1...
What I plan to do is settle the markets stating that no new primaries/caucuses will be held due to the Florida Democratic statement. How do people feel about that?
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Inappropriate?I don't understand the rush to close this before something definitive is done. Disenfranchising the voters of Florida is not something to be done lightly and there is a chance that this statement from the state DNC is just a way to underscore the need for the various parties to work something out. Why close it now when there is a chance it isn't settled?
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Inappropriate?The National DNC can not force the Florida DNC to hold another primary or caucus. The National DNC has already told Florida what would happen if they moved up thier primaries and florida moved them up with full knowledge, now everyone is shocked. Please. The National DNC can only now decide what to do with the delegates from the original vote, maintain the current restrictions or allow them to be seated with penalty or no vote at all. Florida DNC stated clearly it will NOT hold another primary or caucus to decide.
Settle now and free up the money. If the National DNC does something it wouldn't make this question settle differently. -
Inappropriate?I also want to state I think we are entering a slipper slope on posting opinions about how to decide a question. The settlement details state as reported by a major news source and 3 major news sources all report on this question directly. There should not be a settlement that reads "a major newsource and the opinion of the people on getsatisfaction".
I know we are gunshy on pulling trigger on political questions but not all of them are worhty of debate, some are clear cut.
I am wondering what is going to happen on the debate question about what is first topic, if the candidates get an opening statement are we going to rule based on what topic they bring up first, or is it up to the questioners? -
Inappropriate?Destry - why do you keep picking on my questions? I'll be optimistic and take it as a compliment :)
I do think its a good thing for Ryan to seek consensus on somewhat gray areas like these questions. Its clear there has been a lot of bad blood in the last week with users not involved in the clarification of the questions. I can kind of go either way on these. I think its (almost) absolutely certain that there will not be another Florida contest at this point.
However, at least one question writer has chimed in and I think they should get a bigger say in the settlement of their question than the rest of the rif-raf. -
Inappropriate?Jenni I am not picking on you, I didn't even realize it was one of your questions. I do want to say that I don't think the question writer should have any decision making in the settlement of thier question. A question writer should make the settlement details clear and specific at time of writing the question. Providing a reliable news source and going from there. I do not want to wager on what the Hubdub community think a particular news story means, I want to wager on news stories. When there is clear agreement across all the news sources as thier is here, this question should be settled and this be a non issue.
By the way jenni I love your questions. -
Inappropriate?When I placed the question, "Will Florida hold another democratic contest to seat their delegates by June 2008?" I really thought it would take until June to get a real decision. If I had not put June on the question, I could see a better argument for settling. I have this same question on Michigan, that if you see the head lines today, I guess you could say it should be settled as well. These are the only two questions I have placed so far as I wanted to see how it all work out. I admit I am a little perplexed.
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Inappropriate?I am so confused. If a question asks will a plane fall out of the sky by August. And then all the major news sources report a plane fell out of the sky, shouldn't the question be settled. Well it seems the new procedure would be to post that the editor is thinking about settling the question, then someone else would say, did it fall or was it shot out of the sky, then the question would be suspended and a long drawn out conversation would take place, in which definitions of the word fall and shot down would be quoted, all because common sense doesn't seem to apply. Then someone would say well lets wait til August before settling.
Can we please get back to the basics. A question is asked, wagers are placed, a news agency reports on the specific question that was asked, a question is settlled and we move on.
I am waiting for someone to argue whether the boston celtics won or the houston rockets lost, that way the question could never be settled. When did common sense, basic rules get thrown out. I know mistakes have been made settling markets, but get back on the damn horse and start settling questions again. -
Inappropriate?I did not ask would the Florida DNC make a decision to have a contest before June 2008. If I had it should be settled. Things COULD still happen therefore it is not an absolute as there are still pressures that might make things change. That's all I am saying and of course it is not our decision.
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Inappropriate?Here is what you asked: Will Florida hold another democratic contest to seat their delegates by June 2008.
By Florida one could only ascertain that by Florida you meant the Florida DNC who is the only governing body that could hold a democratic contest to seat "thier" delegates.
The Florida DNC is the sole authority on holding a contest to seat "thier" delegates. All the National DNC can do is choose out to deal with delegates that were chosen with previous contest. There is no arguement for delaying settling this question. All the major news sources have reported that there will be NO other contest, primary or caucus in Florida. That is what the question asked, the settlement details were clear.
We are getting into the arguement of what is possible versus what is probable. There is nothing that is impossible. Will the world explode, the internet cease to exist, all is possible, any of it probable no. It is "possible" that the NFL will learn some new evidence that the Giants cheated and take away the super bowl victory, so should we not have settled the super bowl questions. How absurd do we want to get. Let common sense rule the day. Let us set a precedent that questions will be settled quickly, fairly, and according to the sources provided.
I’m amazed, admins haven't dealt with this already
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Inappropriate?ok, I acquiesce.
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Inappropriate?http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23697622/
Note the following quote from that link: Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s hopes of ending the primaries with game-changing victories from new contests in Florida and Michigan grew dim on Tuesday as Florida officially scuttled plans for a new vote and Michigan lawmakers appeared far from a deal. -
Inappropriate?Market is being settled with settlement sources stating Florida will not hold a new primary.
Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
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