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EMPLOYEE
Incorrect settlement details on this question "Will Hillary Clinton be able to win both the Ohio and Texas Democratic primaries on March 4, 2008?"
I flagged this question, but I wanted to make sure it gets addressed so I'm posting it here as well. The polls in Ohio open at 6:30am EST (3:30am PST), and close at 7:30pm EST (4:30pm PST), so there will be a lot of additional information available to later investors if the suspend data is left at "Tomorrow [3/4] 2:59pm PST (23 hours) ". That's almost 6:00pm EST and the polls will have been open for almost 12 hours.
I’m anxious that someone will take advantage of this!
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Inappropriate?I imagine this was deliberate - I'd find it interesting to see in-play gaming on a political question, and would actually have set cutoff to closing time on the dot. If you've flagged it I'm sure ryan will get round to addressing whether it is deliberate or not tomorrow.
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Inappropriate?@anaverageamerican
Don't be anxious. Now that you've alerted us all to this, I'm sure we all will take advantage of it. Thanks for the tip.
I’m kidding
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Inappropriate?I'm more worried about if the results will be judged by percentage of vote or delegate count... they won't necessarily be the same! -
Inappropriate?The market closes before the polls close, some in game betting is fine. We won't know the numbers of voters exactly until awhile after the polls have closed.
Ryan -
Inappropriate?According to news sources it will take 3 or 4 days to figure out the delegate count in Texas.
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Inappropriate?I've been swamped at work, so paying less attention to the forums, (not to mention the site). Can you believe that my manager was completely unimpressed with my Hubdub success, and wanted me to actually complete the tasks he had assigned me? His priorities are all screwed up ... and as a a result so are mine 8^).
Infernal, I don't mind providing a tip for a friend ...
I’m underwater, but Hubdub has nothing to do with it!
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Inappropriate?I agree in principle, but thought that this suspend time was far too close to the time the polls close. I'm not opposed to some in game play, but imagine wagering on a football (you know, your kind of football) game, where the wagering began a week ahead of time and was permitted to extend 'til there were 15 minutes left in regulation. Would that be fair?
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Inappropriate?According to the otficial HD rules, delegate count rules:
Unless otherwise stated a state primary/caucus/convention is decided based on delegates (not super delegates). A question will only be settled by the popular vote if that is explicitly stated in the question. -
Inappropriate?Is America really ready for a woman president or an African-American man president? I just think we're not really ready for them to become a United States President. Hillary wants to become president because she thinks she can do better than her husband did.
I’m undecided
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Inappropriate?I'd be absolutely fine with in-game football running until that late. Indeed I'd be happy with it running until the final whistle. If you bet before the start of the game and are not in a position to participate during the game, you've lost nothing compared to if we had closed the market earlier. As for participants during the game, they are just benefitting to the extent that there's a market already open and ready to play.
Think about the logic of the game. If there is a strong team against a weak team, then pre-game betting will mean that even before the game the odds will be at 80-90%, so the movement during the game will be small. If it is more evenly matched then the odds would be nearer to 50%, so the overall movement up until the final whistle would be larger, but there is no single point at which things are decided. sure if a team scores their odds will likely increase, but even bad teams sometimes overcome a goal disadvantage to draw, so they won't go to 100% immediately. As time passes of course the chances of them making back that goal diminish, and the odds move accordingly, and if they concede again, they will once again move accordingly, but as long as there are enough in-game participants to keep the market liquid, there is little reason to believe that anybody can take an unfair advantage by placing a large bet at an ideal moment, purely and simply because there is no such ideal moment - whenever they do it until the final whistle they are still taking a gamble, and it's a gamble based on the odds available to them.
For an example of that look at your own football games. All the late post-season games went right down to the nail apart from the San Diego one, so reasonable odds were available until seconds before the whistle, whereas the ones which were decided earlier had odds of 95% or more for the whole last quarter (roughly) - I was there trying to make a sneaky buck, and there wasn't a sneaky buck to be made...
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