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Leaderboard end-of-quarter changes

Hi everyone, there's a big event in the Hubdub calendar coming up (quarter end) and I wanted to get your feedback on our suggested leaderboard changes that will come into effect then.

There are a number of problems with the current situation.

1. New users are discouraged from joining Hubdub by the dominance of the leading players. Fewer users motivated to compete is bad for everyone.
2. The large amounts of cash at the disposal of some Hubdubbers makes it easy for them to move markets significantly. This is bad for them and everyone else, and reduces the accuracy of the site's forecasts.
3. Excessively large amounts of wealth become increasingly difficult to manage.
4. The challenge of a level playing field for users at all levels to compete on skill alone is removed by vast differences in worth. We want to make Hubdub as fun and exciting as possible for everyone.

We're eager to take the opportunity of the end of Hubdub's first quarter to create a solution which solves these problems, but which also:

i) Recognizes the incredible achievements to date of our top predictors, the time they have spent nursing their portfolios and the skill they have demonstrated at predicting
ii) Creates a weekly incentive to, on some level, 'start over' if you had a bad week previously

Here's our proposed solution.

a) The leaderboards we will have are:
- All Time Earnings (the combined gains a user has ever made in any quarter determines their position here)
- Quarterly Gains (as now: the gain made by users in the current quarter) [also available historically, e.g. for Q1 2008 too]
- Weekly Relative Gain (all users ranked by the percentage increase of their net worth since the start of the week)

The most emphasis will be given to Weekly Relative Gain, to encourage weekly play and to allow users at all wealth-levels to compete head to head.

b) All leaderboards will have multiple pages allowing you to browse everyone's position, and jump to your own page so you can compete with those around you.

c) We cannot allow users' wealth to continue to grow indefinitely over months and years. The problems we have now (discouragement of new users, massive market movement, difficult portfolio management) will only increase over time if we do. Quarter end seems an appropriate time to recognize and reward our top performers, but scale back everyone's wealth in a fair and reasonable way. We didn't want to scale everyone to the same amount, because better predictors have earned their right to a head start next quarter. Instead, we're proposing to scale back cash and predictions (proportionately) in the following bands:

Users with quarterly gain 20k or more will begin Q2 with 20k (combined cash and predictions)
Users with quarterly gain 5k or more (and less than 20k) will begin Q2 with 5k (combined cash and predictions)
Users with quarterly gain 2k or more (and less than 5k) will begin Q2 with 2k (combined cash and predictions)
Users with quarterly gain of less than 2k will begin Q2 with 1k (combined cash and predictions)

Users' profiles will be awarded an icon show which band they started in that they'll keep for the rest of the quarter.

We know this rescaling could be contentious. We've worked hard to come up with a solution that's fair to everybody, and is in the interests of the Hubdub community as a whole.

For our top predictors, rescaling doesn't penalize the skill you've shown. It allows you to prove your prowess again, against Hubdubbers of similar caliber from the same start point. I imagine the excitement to see who emerges top early on from you 20k'ers will be immense! And remember, your progress to date will put you top of the All Time Leaderboard and the Q1 historic leaderboard right away, so Hubdub immortality is yours. You can continue to build on your All Time Leaderboard position in successive quarters. In future, you may also be able to 'pimp your profile' by buying stuff with the cash represented on the All Time Leaderboard.

For our new predictors, it will give you a chance to make your mark on Hubdub right away and not be at the severe disadvantage that currently exists.

And for those of us in between, we'll be able to have weekly face-offs no matter what our worth is on the relative leaderboards.

Please let us know if you have any feedback or suggestions on the above. We're open to ideas for the fun icon titles given to users in each band, no modesty necessary :)

Tom
 
happy I’m excited

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Due to volume, only the 15 most recent replies are being displayed
  • 4d
    Inappropriate?
    anyone who wants a smaller thread, AAA started one at http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/top...

    what does everyone think about this: everyone gets scaled by a factor of 20....this will put crudsy at about 30k and everyone below 1,000 gets pushed up to 1,000....but i think we still have to save that money somewhere where it can be tapped if you go broke because i know if i was crudsy and went broke like a month into the quarter because i got down-scaled i proly wouldn't come back after a two month wait for the end of the quarter...or even 10, that would put him at 60,000
  • Inappropriate?
    First and foremost what hasn't ever been talked about here is what did Hubdub plan on doing at the end of the quarter. Did they not envision that some users would pull out to large lead? I feel like we are trying to come up with ways to put the toothpaste back in the tube. Part of me wants to believe that we are using this quarterly change over as a way to put everyone back on even ground. I am opposed to taking away the earnings of anyone. I am less than half of what crudsy has but I still get on here everyday thinking that with hard work, little bit of luck, I can catch up. I think the chase is part of the fun.
    I want to say that I am against all plans for scaling, resetting or otherwise. If Hubdub wants to do that and feels it is in the best interest of thier website, then they are more than welcome to. The admins at hubdub have to do whatever is best for the overall progression of thier website. I won't be a part of it, but losing one user and gaining thousands more is a worthwhile trade off.
    I have stated earlier that I just always assumed at the end of the quarter the quarterly leaderboard would just have my profits from the beginning of that period. I figured there would be an overall leaderboard. I like the friends leaderboard, and would hope that it can be viewed quarterly and overall. I will still only concern myself with the overall leaderboard. When looking at the reasons stated by tom in original post, I don't have a problem with having large amount of cash, I have gotten use to the market swings when I put down a bet.
    I admire that level of thought and effort that most on here are giving to come up with a plan. I wish you nothing but the best. I will be staying on the sidelines for next couple days just watching to see what happens. I will be happy to chime in where asked. I am sad to see that there was no plan for this event.
    I am shocked we haven't seen more admins weigh in on this.
  • 4d
    Inappropriate?
    i totally agree about the absence of admins....i was surprised to see such an important discussion brought up so late in the day for them...i dont think they planned on quite such an explosion of wealth either, we're all just too good at prediction :)
  • rohan
    Inappropriate?
    Scaling down: 10
    How to scale down(ie. method):1

    I've been reading the entire thread and I've realised that everybody is really concerned about this;these many viewpoints are helpful; infernalmachine, i thought, has good ideas. I doubt we are going to reach a consensus on this, and most users joined after Jan 28th; therefore I propose a four month quarter followed by a two month one as long as this remains undecided.
     
    indifferent I’m amazed: 110 new emails from getsatisfaction since I went to sleep?
  • Inappropriate?
    The crisis (if one exists) is as a result of bundling the quarterly shift with Das (H)Kapital. The quarterly shift is easy - zero the quarterly gain figures, maybe also add the weekly % gain leaderboards and certain other features. Done. No controversy.

    Perhaps there really is a need for redistribution of wealth, but as destry says, managing large amounts is an adaptive skill which you can figure out, so it's not really a good reason for changing things. In fact, it may be a good countervailing argument for leaving things as is, as the problems involved with large portfolio management may actually slow growth at the top, allowing people to catch up.

    Xbox Live (those vicious capitalists ;-) ) do not worry about such things as achievement point redistribution, and yet people somehow find the courage to play, even though they are far behind (perhaps hopelessly behind) on leaderboards. It's something to shoot for, an incentive rather than a discouragement.

    It's curious how amenable the majority of us are to having our wealth disappear. Surely this differentiates H$s from real $s! Only destry has directly objected - I can definitely see his point btw, and wonder if we aren't going to regret being so "nice".

    Anyway. Wealth-redistribution is a BIG idea, and difficult to implement. Quarterly change is simple. But if you do both at once, you make the deadline for deciding and implementing an enormous philosophical shift in the game really sudden. As rohan is suggesting, slow down. If you're sold on doing both at once, rohan's 4 month first quarter is not a bad idea. Otherwise, why not implement them separately, or even see how destry's idea works over quarter #2, continue this discussion here, and come up with plans for Q3?

    It's not as if starting a new quarter and having a weekly percent gain board, as well as the ability to see where you are (ie paging of leaderboards past the top 20) aren't going to have any positive effect on the game.
  • rohan
    Inappropriate?
    Hey,
    Since Hubdub started, a majority of the earl;y user's have made large amounts of money with illegal questions(ie. before the 12 hour and the cash-out when suspended restrictions). Those gains then are used to make even more. Consider pics: he made his money(a lot of it) from a bug. Now that the bugs are being ironed out, it is time for everyone to be put back to lower amounts so that real predicting can go on. The all-time leaderboards will maintain this gamed wealth, but no one is going to last long on them if they make their cash from gaming instead of predicting. there is no question of being "nice". You have to be reset. Accept it, and instead of objecting, constructively think of a way of how to reset.
     
    silly I’m amused
  • sd
    Inappropriate?
    Thats a completely different viewpoint......and I don't like it . If there were 5 bugs in the system in Q1 then there will surely be 5 more again in Q2. So people who took advantage of those early problems will now take advantage of new problems that pop up from time to time . That is an inevitable process ..you can't stop that . If we are to follow your logic then it would mean that everytime a new bug is removed people should be reset .
  • sd
    Inappropriate?
    I am not totally against rescaling but I know that due to problems arising from it a few smart people will get ahead . Even if we think our process is flawless ...the scale down would be like starting afresh and Hubdub would be facing new problems.
    If however the scaledown does take place I think that the procedure should be -
    1. Freeze everyone's account for 5 hours from 7:00pm PST a.
    2. Take out every prediction that a question has.... in order .
    3. Turn all predictions to cash.
    4. Then rescale the cash and then proportionally invest it back in the respective questions in order.
  • Inappropriate?
    Hi everyone, I wanted to let you know that even though we haven't been responding to every post, we've been watching this discussion closely and are finding it very useful for refining our plans. Thank you all.
     
    happy I’m grateful
  • Inappropriate?
    Hi everyone, thanks for all your efforts and comments. Please see the new, revised solution here: http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/top...
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