Leaderboard end-of-quarter changes
Hi everyone, there's a big event in the Hubdub calendar coming up (quarter end) and I wanted to get your feedback on our suggested leaderboard changes that will come into effect then.
There are a number of problems with the current situation.
1. New users are discouraged from joining Hubdub by the dominance of the leading players. Fewer users motivated to compete is bad for everyone.
2. The large amounts of cash at the disposal of some Hubdubbers makes it easy for them to move markets significantly. This is bad for them and everyone else, and reduces the accuracy of the site's forecasts.
3. Excessively large amounts of wealth become increasingly difficult to manage.
4. The challenge of a level playing field for users at all levels to compete on skill alone is removed by vast differences in worth. We want to make Hubdub as fun and exciting as possible for everyone.
We're eager to take the opportunity of the end of Hubdub's first quarter to create a solution which solves these problems, but which also:
i) Recognizes the incredible achievements to date of our top predictors, the time they have spent nursing their portfolios and the skill they have demonstrated at predicting
ii) Creates a weekly incentive to, on some level, 'start over' if you had a bad week previously
Here's our proposed solution.
a) The leaderboards we will have are:
- All Time Earnings (the combined gains a user has ever made in any quarter determines their position here)
- Quarterly Gains (as now: the gain made by users in the current quarter) [also available historically, e.g. for Q1 2008 too]
- Weekly Relative Gain (all users ranked by the percentage increase of their net worth since the start of the week)
The most emphasis will be given to Weekly Relative Gain, to encourage weekly play and to allow users at all wealth-levels to compete head to head.
b) All leaderboards will have multiple pages allowing you to browse everyone's position, and jump to your own page so you can compete with those around you.
c) We cannot allow users' wealth to continue to grow indefinitely over months and years. The problems we have now (discouragement of new users, massive market movement, difficult portfolio management) will only increase over time if we do. Quarter end seems an appropriate time to recognize and reward our top performers, but scale back everyone's wealth in a fair and reasonable way. We didn't want to scale everyone to the same amount, because better predictors have earned their right to a head start next quarter. Instead, we're proposing to scale back cash and predictions (proportionately) in the following bands:
Users with quarterly gain 20k or more will begin Q2 with 20k (combined cash and predictions)
Users with quarterly gain 5k or more (and less than 20k) will begin Q2 with 5k (combined cash and predictions)
Users with quarterly gain 2k or more (and less than 5k) will begin Q2 with 2k (combined cash and predictions)
Users with quarterly gain of less than 2k will begin Q2 with 1k (combined cash and predictions)
Users' profiles will be awarded an icon show which band they started in that they'll keep for the rest of the quarter.
We know this rescaling could be contentious. We've worked hard to come up with a solution that's fair to everybody, and is in the interests of the Hubdub community as a whole.
For our top predictors, rescaling doesn't penalize the skill you've shown. It allows you to prove your prowess again, against Hubdubbers of similar caliber from the same start point. I imagine the excitement to see who emerges top early on from you 20k'ers will be immense! And remember, your progress to date will put you top of the All Time Leaderboard and the Q1 historic leaderboard right away, so Hubdub immortality is yours. You can continue to build on your All Time Leaderboard position in successive quarters. In future, you may also be able to 'pimp your profile' by buying stuff with the cash represented on the All Time Leaderboard.
For our new predictors, it will give you a chance to make your mark on Hubdub right away and not be at the severe disadvantage that currently exists.
And for those of us in between, we'll be able to have weekly face-offs no matter what our worth is on the relative leaderboards.
Please let us know if you have any feedback or suggestions on the above. We're open to ideas for the fun icon titles given to users in each band, no modesty necessary :)
Tom
There are a number of problems with the current situation.
1. New users are discouraged from joining Hubdub by the dominance of the leading players. Fewer users motivated to compete is bad for everyone.
2. The large amounts of cash at the disposal of some Hubdubbers makes it easy for them to move markets significantly. This is bad for them and everyone else, and reduces the accuracy of the site's forecasts.
3. Excessively large amounts of wealth become increasingly difficult to manage.
4. The challenge of a level playing field for users at all levels to compete on skill alone is removed by vast differences in worth. We want to make Hubdub as fun and exciting as possible for everyone.
We're eager to take the opportunity of the end of Hubdub's first quarter to create a solution which solves these problems, but which also:
i) Recognizes the incredible achievements to date of our top predictors, the time they have spent nursing their portfolios and the skill they have demonstrated at predicting
ii) Creates a weekly incentive to, on some level, 'start over' if you had a bad week previously
Here's our proposed solution.
a) The leaderboards we will have are:
- All Time Earnings (the combined gains a user has ever made in any quarter determines their position here)
- Quarterly Gains (as now: the gain made by users in the current quarter) [also available historically, e.g. for Q1 2008 too]
- Weekly Relative Gain (all users ranked by the percentage increase of their net worth since the start of the week)
The most emphasis will be given to Weekly Relative Gain, to encourage weekly play and to allow users at all wealth-levels to compete head to head.
b) All leaderboards will have multiple pages allowing you to browse everyone's position, and jump to your own page so you can compete with those around you.
c) We cannot allow users' wealth to continue to grow indefinitely over months and years. The problems we have now (discouragement of new users, massive market movement, difficult portfolio management) will only increase over time if we do. Quarter end seems an appropriate time to recognize and reward our top performers, but scale back everyone's wealth in a fair and reasonable way. We didn't want to scale everyone to the same amount, because better predictors have earned their right to a head start next quarter. Instead, we're proposing to scale back cash and predictions (proportionately) in the following bands:
Users with quarterly gain 20k or more will begin Q2 with 20k (combined cash and predictions)
Users with quarterly gain 5k or more (and less than 20k) will begin Q2 with 5k (combined cash and predictions)
Users with quarterly gain 2k or more (and less than 5k) will begin Q2 with 2k (combined cash and predictions)
Users with quarterly gain of less than 2k will begin Q2 with 1k (combined cash and predictions)
Users' profiles will be awarded an icon show which band they started in that they'll keep for the rest of the quarter.
We know this rescaling could be contentious. We've worked hard to come up with a solution that's fair to everybody, and is in the interests of the Hubdub community as a whole.
For our top predictors, rescaling doesn't penalize the skill you've shown. It allows you to prove your prowess again, against Hubdubbers of similar caliber from the same start point. I imagine the excitement to see who emerges top early on from you 20k'ers will be immense! And remember, your progress to date will put you top of the All Time Leaderboard and the Q1 historic leaderboard right away, so Hubdub immortality is yours. You can continue to build on your All Time Leaderboard position in successive quarters. In future, you may also be able to 'pimp your profile' by buying stuff with the cash represented on the All Time Leaderboard.
For our new predictors, it will give you a chance to make your mark on Hubdub right away and not be at the severe disadvantage that currently exists.
And for those of us in between, we'll be able to have weekly face-offs no matter what our worth is on the relative leaderboards.
Please let us know if you have any feedback or suggestions on the above. We're open to ideas for the fun icon titles given to users in each band, no modesty necessary :)
Tom
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Inappropriate?Tom - I can only believe I'm the first to comment here since no one else has noticed this thread yet. You should go shout at some of the higher ranked people.
I'm really torn on this one. I agree you need to do something to level the playing field a bit. However, I would be crushed to see the (small amount of) $ I've worked to accumulate gone.
On a more practical side, how do you plan on scaling the predictions? If we consider one of the leaders who might have 200,000 in predictions when you take him down to 20k will his 100$ predictions become 10$? I'd really like to hear more details about how you plan on implementing this.
PS when is the quarter cut? April 1?
I’m wondering if its possilbe to triple my money before April...
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Inappropriate?Will the funds adjusted away from the 'scaled-back' predictions be added to the accumulated funds in the 'All Time Leaderboard'?
Or is it better to be 'cash-rich' at end-of-quarter?
I’m looking forward to "pimping my profile"!
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Inappropriate?I had suggested to Tom by email that we be scaled back to 1% upto 5000 and minimum 1000. Like this better however(Its obvious why...)
I can't be happier.. I have nearly $250,000 in cash and have no clue whatsoever what to do with it..(maybe jenniandboys would like some, along with some more for her 'little leaderboard's' members?)
I wonder what it will be..going back to putting $100 predictions, from $5000...lol..
I'll get back to you on the band names..I gotta think..
I’m thankful to be rid of the cash
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Inappropriate?I don't like the idea where my predicitions get sold by force :(
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Inappropriate?No need to share with the rest of my leaderboard - I'm happy to take it off your hands! :)
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Inappropriate?hey krujis,
Your predictions aren't getting sold. What it means that is that they are all scaled down. for example, a 500 dollar prediction becomes a 50 $ prediction at the same odds. If your wealth is 50K, everything proportionally reduces by 20/50*100=40% so, a $100 bet goes to a $400 bet and $10,000 in cash goes to $4000
I’m still thankful
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Inappropriate?Ok; so what the swiss bank account number?
how about this- you give me 1 % of the H$ I give you in real cash :-)
I’m gonna get RICH
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Inappropriate?isn't that fairly the same?
I mean maybe it would be better to buy "stars of fortune" for the $H you left over - just as you sayd. -
Inappropriate?how about you consider it a charitable donation and take a tax writeoff?
I’m wishing on a star
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Inappropriate?but suppose I have a bet at 10000 which will earn me 13000 ...does that mean that my bet gets reduced 100 . If so then my earnings too will decrease right ?
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Inappropriate?Think of it this way: Your predictions get scaled down, but the more the wealth now, the higher you rise on the all time leaderboard
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Inappropriate?Tom - Scaling back all of the users at once seems like it will cause absolute havoc in the markets. That's kind of what I was getting at with my first question about implementation details... Have you given thought to freezing the markets for a little while or not letting people cash out for 5 hours or... something?? It seems like it will artificially change all of the markets.
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Inappropriate?im not fully getting this..does this mean i will only get 20k in the next quarter and if i lose it i'm out?..or am i getting another 20k every quarter until my dollars run out if i lose it on a quarter?
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Inappropriate?Your actual earnings decrease, but % earnings reman the same
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Inappropriate?at the end of each quarter there is reevaluation like this:
Users with quarterly gain 20k or more will begin Q2 with 20k (combined cash and predictions)
Users with quarterly gain 5k or more (and less than 20k) will begin Q2 with 5k (combined cash and predictions)
Users with quarterly gain 2k or more (and less than 5k) will begin Q2 with 2k (combined cash and predictions)
Users with quarterly gain of less than 2k will begin Q2 with 1k (combined cash and predictions)
Lose all your cash in one quarter, get 1000 the next.. -
Inappropriate?i know i've been a proponent of a scale down since i won alot of money thru a bug and can easily see where it discourages new users, plus when i was #1 i found it's alot harder to make money percentage wise because you either make large bets which in turn skew the markets or hundreds, eventually turning into thousands, of smaller bets on Q's that u really don't want to bet on....something HAS to be done in order to prevent such huge amounts of money, the question is what?...something i just thought of is maybe just scaling back the top 20 or 30 leaders, or maybe everyone over a certain amount of money, while still retaining those winnings on some board somewhere...this would allow all the new users and the not so active members to keep their winnings and level the playing field a little...as i said, i just thought of it, so feel free to comment on or trash my idea
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Inappropriate?suppose I have all my money on predictions.so in that case my predictions worth 250000 will get scaled down to 20000.But that is gonna make a huge difference . Suppose I actually have a worth of 230000 but through 5 questions I put in 20 bets of 1000 each and raise my worth my 10000 so in that case when the predictions are scaled down then all the $1000 bets will be worth $80 . so my worth which had been artificially raised will go down by a few thousands . Now what am I supposed to do?
I don't like the idea I think that rather hubdub should have reduced all players above 40000 to 10% of their worth , below 40000 to 5%of worth and so on. What do you think ?
I’m confused
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Inappropriate?ok..i get it now..so we get money like when we first signed up every quarter if we lose our stake..is this for new people as well as people who have already been on site?..this is probably the only way for the site to continue and as long as i will have some cash to keep myself busy im ok with whatever..i told everybody id be off the leaderboard eventually...ha
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Inappropriate?supposed to be a maths genius, but acts like an idiot. gimme a call and I'll explain.
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Inappropriate?that is a known side effect of placing multiple bets on the same question...if placed on same option, your net worth increases because it raises the original bet, on differing options, your net worth decreases, but in the end it'll even out....the second part might work, but i would suggest the inverse...if the higher players get a greater percentage it'll make the lower players even more behind
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Inappropriate?i like 4d idea but i guess if the top people keep getting 20k it will be the same as now but on a smaller scale and if we could dip into our funds it still wouldnt be a level playing field..aahh..i will have to visit my past on the old boards i guess
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Inappropriate?Somehow I get the feeling that you'll remain on the leaderboard anyway.
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Inappropriate?another question..if im placing wagers now for after this quarter will i still get the full amount if i win the bet in the next quarter? and is there an official date when this process will begin
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Inappropriate?Rohan's got it - but to thrash out his example a bit more, if your QUARTERLY GAIN is 50k you're heading for the 20k band in Q2. This means your cash and predictions will be scaled to 40% of their current amount (20/50 = 40%). So, if wagered H$100 on a question and it's currently worth H$200, your stake will be reduced to H$40, and its worth will correspondingly be H$80. At the same time, if you have H$10k cash, that will be scaled back to H$4k as well.
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Inappropriate?Correct Rohan, thanks. sd - hope that makes sense.
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Inappropriate?Technically, we'll ensure the scale back mechanism doesn't affect market prices. However, it's unclear how people will behave re: buying/selling approaching the deadline which could cause a lot of volatility. I was hoping for some clues on what tactics people will employ at that point from you guys...
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Inappropriate?i was wondering that too...i thought the payouts would go down too because it would be based on the revised bet, but not sure
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Inappropriate?I've placed 99% of my $H into positions in the market.
Does that mean that I will get only 1% of the $20K ($H200) as cash at the start of the quarter?
I’m unsure what to do with all the cash!
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Inappropriate?Just wanted to stick my nose in and say the band boundaries and amounts may be subject to change in future quarters but yes, you're right, crudsy will get a starting amount based on the previous quarter only. And crudsy - you're too good to wipe out anyway!
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Inappropriate?when i first heard about it, i went thru and cashed out all my bets that were going to finish after the new quarter
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Inappropriate?so at this point im locked in to the 20k spot for the next quarter..after that my amount to wager is based only on my earnings for that quarter..so in essence there is no reason for me to continue to wager or cash out at this point because it wont do anything for me anyway except in the history files..is that accurate?
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Inappropriate?well, actually i meant for them to just reset those players above a certain amount and keep their score on an all time leaderboard...or maybe put it in a vault to where if they went broke in a later quarter would be the only time they'd be able to get some of it back and it would decrease they're all-time score....if they could just dip into it at any time it'd be kinda pointless
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Inappropriate?Correct.
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