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Settling Primary questions based on predictions
I'm not sure I think it's a good idea to be settling popular vote primary questions today (Mar. 4) based on an incomplete report of precincts and an estimation by news organizations. If any of these is wrong, there's bad feeling here. Wouldn't it be best to wait until 100% of precincts are reporting?
I’m confused
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Inappropriate?Hi InfernalMachine,
Thanks for this. You're right, we certainly don't want to be hasty in settling questions when the risk of calling them wrongly is too high. At the same time, we don't want to keep people hanging around waiting for their cash if an outcome is near certain but not confirmed (as in the point about settling early in rules section 2.2.6).
I've passed your concerns on to Ryan, our Politics Editor, who will be settling these questions so he's extra careful to get the timing right.
Thanks again,
Tom -
Inappropriate?Hi infernalmachine,
I'm settling once the "precincts reporting reach 95%-99%," so that there is no way of a turnover, unless it looks really bad. In some cases even at 58% someone is being trounced by the numbers and they can't possibly get back to tie or overcome so I settle early.
Regards,
Ryan
I’m confident
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Inappropriate?Although infernal mentions popular vote questions, I think delegate count questions should be given even longer. I'm worried that the Texas question was settled prematurely (albeit in my favor!) given the complexity of the Texas delegate assignment process.
I’m unsure
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