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Should Hubdub players be allowed to "hide" their predictions by making them private? What is the rational for this feature?
Also I think in order to be transparent and allow better self policing of the site, everyones predictions past and present should appear on their profile.
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I feel that category editors should have thier predictions shown, so there is transparency there, but I agree with averageamerican that after the event has been settled or cashed in, it should be made public.
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Wow, a forum without a flame war! How refreshing is that 8^)
I’m refreshed!
4 people say
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I disagree. Hubdub is a competition, it isn't real money and it's for fun, but it is a competition nevertheless.
In a futures market like HD, the availability of public predictions can affect outcomes. For example, if I check blueseamiami's public predictions and invest based on how _he_ (or she) is investing, the odds on a certain result change. Instead of a purely objective prediction, I am playing follow-the-leader. Since I look at every question in which I make a prediction, not only in terms of what I think the outcome will be, but what I believe the HD community will think the outcome will be, I feel that no predictions should be public.
On the other hand, and in the interest of transparency, I have no objection to everyone's predictions being made public after they have settled.
I’m disagreeing, not arguing.
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Inappropriate?I disagree. Hubdub is a competition, it isn't real money and it's for fun, but it is a competition nevertheless.
In a futures market like HD, the availability of public predictions can affect outcomes. For example, if I check blueseamiami's public predictions and invest based on how _he_ (or she) is investing, the odds on a certain result change. Instead of a purely objective prediction, I am playing follow-the-leader. Since I look at every question in which I make a prediction, not only in terms of what I think the outcome will be, but what I believe the HD community will think the outcome will be, I feel that no predictions should be public.
On the other hand, and in the interest of transparency, I have no objection to everyone's predictions being made public after they have settled.
I’m disagreeing, not arguing.
5 people say
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Inappropriate?I appreciate your perspective. It makes a lot of sense.
I strongly agree that predictions must made public after the question has been settled.
I’m confident
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4 people say
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Inappropriate?Great suggestion, anaverageamerican -
Inappropriate?I feel that category editors should have thier predictions shown, so there is transparency there, but I agree with averageamerican that after the event has been settled or cashed in, it should be made public.
3 people say
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Inappropriate?Instead of looking at player profiles, I rely on common knowledge, common sense, stats, CNN and Google for the info I need to make predictions. I agree that publicizing predictions will lead to a "follow-the-leader" game.
Category editors, and question creators, shouldn't necessarily have their predictions shown, at risk of "driving the market" based on their prediction. If a question creator creates a question on a topic that most players know nothing about, and you can see how the creator placed his wage, players are more likely to place the same wage.
Players will no longer be predicting news outcomes, instead they will be predicting the accuracy of certain players wages.
Get it?
Let players continue to have a choice between what is shown and what is not shown in their profiles.
I’m for hiding predictions!
2 people say
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Inappropriate?I also want to add: Please do not show all of the past predictions for players. I make predictions all the time, just to change my mind and pull out, and then I make the prediction again, just to pull out again.....loop that tens of times and you have my past predictions.
I don't know how anyone could find that information useful.
I’m still in favor of hiding predictions!
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Inappropriate?As a rule we will never change functionality that makes public something that was previously private. We put in both private and public predictions as we expected that some predictions I would be happy to make in public and then some that I would prefer to keep private (e.g. if I was working for Yahoo and the questions was on Yahoo lay-offs I might not be so keen on a public prediction!). I think there is room for both.
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Inappropriate?Well the question now becomes why make them public at all. It might be nice to have a "global" button to keep all bets private.
My concern is for transparency, I could care less on using the functionality to "copycat" other peoples bets. My concern is to be able to monitor for fraud. And we know it is happening.
If you work for Yahoo and your "betting" against your employer it might be wise to refrain. In that regard I doubt the SEC or a stock brokers employer would be very happy to know that people regulated and licensed by the US government are trading against the DOW or NASDAQ, even if it is only for fun. Brokers and their ilk are usually not even allowed to have private email accounts or take a pee without permission while at work etcetera.
The game needs to be as open as possible to prevent Uncle Sam from sticking his nose in, when and if you come up with a reward based system. You risk a serious smack down from the Feds, or local Attorney's General if the game is not completely transparent.
Humphrey v. Viacom has so far helped to keep fantasy leagues afloat but caution ye who tread in dangerous waters. The debate is far from over no matter what the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 says, Hubdub does not to my knowledge fall under that act as a "Fantasy Sports League".
I am not a bottom feeding lawyer, I have however had occasion to put them on retainer, Preferably at arms length, as they bite really hard and have very tender ego's.
Just my two cents.
I’m confident
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