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Three key issues to be addressed to help improve the system...
Hi, Guys!
I can't say enough about what an amazing idea HubDub is and how much fun it is to wager on real news! I hope someday we may be able to wager real money.
Tonight I ran across three issues which I wanted to bring to your attention to help optimize the system and reduce cheating.
1) As is often my style of investing/wagering, I'll make an initial wager, then later re-asses and decide to add to it, withdraw it or leave it. Tonight while adding to some of my Super Bowl bets, I noticed when you initiate additional bets on a question you've already bet on, if large amounts of additional money are put to work ($4,000+,) it can cause the odds meter to jump slightly, increasing the value of your original bet. Would it be unethical to 'Cash Out' your previous bet at that point, thus banking the immediate profit jump caused by the new self-added wager?
I say, in some ways yes, in some ways no. You can bank the profit, I imagine, but would still be locked into the wager at a less advantageous price to you. So maybe the profit banked offsets the larger gain if you're right.
I felt it was unethical, so I didn't do it. Which leads me to question two.
2) All my capital was fully wagered with almost nothing to spare. I came across new questions I wanted to bet on. In order to free up dollars, I was forced to cash out of some prior bets. For one of them I bet $5,000 early(!) at around 60% Yes. The question was now up to 84% Yes, so I should've had profit in the question built-in-- however my balances showed a drawdown on the current question showing it was at 34% Yes and reflecting a loss to me of around $2,000 on the question. I was only looking to free up dollars for other bets, but didn't want to take the erroneous $2,000 hit to my $5,000 wager before the outcome. But I saw the current odds were at 84% Yes, so why did it show -$2,000 @ 34% instead of up $1,700 at 84%? The same thing was showing on two other bets, as well. Just wanted to bring that to your attention in case it was a universal bug.
3) Though I've not taken advantage of this as it's cheating/gaming the system, I've seen many instances where betting is still open on questions after news outcomes have already been published. Shouldn't there be a universal standard to end all wagering one hour or more before the end-result is expected?
Just wanted to share my discoveries in the hopes of assisting you guys in making the site a smash success.
Thanks!
-Jeff
[BlueSeaMiami]
I can't say enough about what an amazing idea HubDub is and how much fun it is to wager on real news! I hope someday we may be able to wager real money.
Tonight I ran across three issues which I wanted to bring to your attention to help optimize the system and reduce cheating.
1) As is often my style of investing/wagering, I'll make an initial wager, then later re-asses and decide to add to it, withdraw it or leave it. Tonight while adding to some of my Super Bowl bets, I noticed when you initiate additional bets on a question you've already bet on, if large amounts of additional money are put to work ($4,000+,) it can cause the odds meter to jump slightly, increasing the value of your original bet. Would it be unethical to 'Cash Out' your previous bet at that point, thus banking the immediate profit jump caused by the new self-added wager?
I say, in some ways yes, in some ways no. You can bank the profit, I imagine, but would still be locked into the wager at a less advantageous price to you. So maybe the profit banked offsets the larger gain if you're right.
I felt it was unethical, so I didn't do it. Which leads me to question two.
2) All my capital was fully wagered with almost nothing to spare. I came across new questions I wanted to bet on. In order to free up dollars, I was forced to cash out of some prior bets. For one of them I bet $5,000 early(!) at around 60% Yes. The question was now up to 84% Yes, so I should've had profit in the question built-in-- however my balances showed a drawdown on the current question showing it was at 34% Yes and reflecting a loss to me of around $2,000 on the question. I was only looking to free up dollars for other bets, but didn't want to take the erroneous $2,000 hit to my $5,000 wager before the outcome. But I saw the current odds were at 84% Yes, so why did it show -$2,000 @ 34% instead of up $1,700 at 84%? The same thing was showing on two other bets, as well. Just wanted to bring that to your attention in case it was a universal bug.
3) Though I've not taken advantage of this as it's cheating/gaming the system, I've seen many instances where betting is still open on questions after news outcomes have already been published. Shouldn't there be a universal standard to end all wagering one hour or more before the end-result is expected?
Just wanted to share my discoveries in the hopes of assisting you guys in making the site a smash success.
Thanks!
-Jeff
[BlueSeaMiami]
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Inappropriate?Hi Jeff,
Thanks for the great post!
Here's some answers:
(1) The gain is only apparent, not real. Each time you make a prediction you push the price up slightly. If you make a series of predictions then the earlier ones will appear in profit. However if you sell them down what will happen is that your later predictions will then start to show a loss. In the end it all balances out. Try it out for yourself: Start with $300 and then make three $100 predictions. Then cash them in starting with the first one. You should end up with exactly $300.
(2) This sounds like a bug. Could you possibly send me a screen shot to nigel [at] hubdub [dot] com and we will get on to it?
(3) When we settle questions we enter the date/time that the outcome became public information. The system then automatically voids any predictions made after that date/time (no prizes for predicting the past!). However it isn't good to have these markets sitting open so if you see one please do click the 'Request settlement' button.
Nigel
PS We just drove up from San Diego to Palo Alto today. Palo Alto is cold (brrrrr....)
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this answers the question
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Inappropriate?Thank you so much, Nigel! Excellent answers, thanks again. I'll be happy to send you the exact questions with the bugs later today to your email address.
Hey, you're in one of the most stunningly beautiful and scenic parts of the country! Hope you drove a good part of the way on Pacific Coast Hwy. Try to rent a convertible if things warm up a little. Have a blast and congratulations on the progress of the site!
Best,
Jeff -
Inappropriate?i think the answer to #2 is because of people gaming the system...i'm not sure as i have no knowledge of the underlying code, but when i first joined you could make a bet, then go to "my hubdub" screen and it would show the new percentage that your bet made it become...this allowed people to place bets, then immediately cash out for a profit...a couple days after i joined, it started showing percentages differently and now shows what the percentage would be if your cash was not wagered on that bet. so now if you bet a large amount on a new question, it'll change the percentage on the question screen, but if you go to the "my hubdub" screen and try to cash out, it'll show the percentage the question would be at if your money wasn't on the bet....again, i'm not sure as i have no affiliation with this site, but that was my take on the subject when i noticed it.
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