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Where does it say that sporting events can have no wagers after start?
In the questions regarding which undefeated team would lose first (http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Which_...) all wagers after tip-off were voided. I don't see in any FAQ where it states sporting events are stopped at start time. To me, this is akin to wagering on the stock market close while the market is still open. The game is in doubt to the end. Especially in this case since both Memphis and Kansas were playing at the same time.
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Hi,
It is definitely something we will review soon. In-play markets are really really exciting and a great way to follow a game. When the site was still in private beta we didn't have much liquidity which meant users could make a ton of money by making predictions after goals where scored. Now we have sufficient liquidity in some sports events I think we can probably open it up during the game.
I'll see if we can get it in place for the Superbowl (which we are really excited to be catching in the US!)
Nigel
I’m excited
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Inappropriate?Hey tarheelv
At the moment suspending sporting event questions before they start or voiding wagers after they start, is an unwritten rule/policy we are following. I have left comments on some questions indicating this.
We'll be reviewing this policy and it may be subject to change in the future.
Regards
Donal
(Hubdub Sports Editor) -
Inappropriate?Donal..
Thanks for the prompt reply. Unwritten policy is tough to swallow, but it is what it is. I would recommend reviewing this policy pretty closely because, as I said, if there is no point spread involved, it is advantagous to those of us that watch markets closely to be allowed to wager during the contest. I think the analogy to wagering on stock market close is accurate. The market flucuates all day, just like scores in games.
Thanks again! -
Inappropriate?Hi,
It is definitely something we will review soon. In-play markets are really really exciting and a great way to follow a game. When the site was still in private beta we didn't have much liquidity which meant users could make a ton of money by making predictions after goals where scored. Now we have sufficient liquidity in some sports events I think we can probably open it up during the game.
I'll see if we can get it in place for the Superbowl (which we are really excited to be catching in the US!)
Nigel
I’m excited
The company and 1 other person say
this answers the question
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Inappropriate?Thank, Nigel! Enjoy the game!! It is like a holiday here in the States.
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Inappropriate?I just created the question "Who will be leading at half-time in Superbowl XLII?" yesterday. I have it ending at 6:40 EST which is 23 minutes after the 6:17 kickoff. This seemed to me to balance the need to end before the result is a fact with a little bit of in-play wagering. That said, it's still a bit of a kludge.
1 person says
this answers the question
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Inappropriate?The way things are now, it appears if there is a market for a sporting event with scores involved, they suspend wagers at the beginning of the game. While the wagering may still take, they will cancel wagers placed after the beginning. HD team, tell me if this is incorrect.
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Inappropriate?Apart from the markets we will trial on the Super Bowl all questions should be suspended before the game starts. If by mistake they where not suspended then predictions made after the start should be voided. This is obviously to reduce opportunities for risk-free profits.
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Inappropriate?I don't know I think it could be open, but think about if I am betting if someone will win or lose and there is 10 seconds left... there has to be a cut off point. I think we can do a percentage thing... like if you bet after the event has started you don't win as much as if you bet before it started. So a 100 wager is worth 95 as it starts... and so on. that's my take -
Inappropriate?But as the event unfolds the market does this anyway (provided there are enough people following the game and watching their bets and the changing odds). Because as an outcome becomes more and more likely, the percent likelihood p goes up as more and more people either cash out of their predictions of other outcomes or buy into the most likely outcome. So p approaches 100 as the event ends, and the payout P for a wager W is determined by
P = (100/p) * W
So if p is 90% you get around 11% profit on your wager, if p=99% you get just over 1% profit ( 10H$ on a bet of 1000H$), and at 99.9% you get a buck for every 1000 you wager. So if enough people follow the game and the betting, staying open right until the last second doesn't unfairly benefit those who come in late.
That said, the cashing out feature could be unfair if it allows people to cash out after the result is closed to betting and known.
There's two ways to look at a HubDub market, both valid. If the betting ends before the game starts, the market is effectively predicting the odds on the game, and by extension the result. If it continues the whole way through, it's (during game time) more like a stock market, in that it predicts the end result by closely following the actual momentum shifts of the game from minute to minute. If you could map what I'm calling the "momentum shifts" of the game, then the graph of the prediction market should duplicate it, only it would occur some seconds or minutes before the real event's graph (at least in theory).
It may seem, if you favour closing bets early, that you are getting ripped off the other way. But you win and lose exactly the same amount no matter what others do. Your win price is fixed at the time of the bet. So it's more a concern about how others are gaining more because they are using the information gathered during the game to make decisions they wouldn't have been able to if the bets closed pre-game. I can appreciate that point of view, even if I'm more of an in-game bettor myself. That's why I think in-game questions should be kept separate from regular questions (allowing an in-game duplicate of a question that closes before the game - the in-game question could be blocked until 5 minutes or so pre-game, and could borrow the odds from the question that is closing to bets - using its predictive ability.)
This reminds me of investopedia.com, a stock market simulator that allows you to practise investing on the NYSE with $100,000 play money. They also compete over leaderboards, but they have different "games" you can subscribe to. Some last 3 months, some go on indefinitely, some are stocks only, some are stocks and options. The point is that they are different ways of playing the same game, each testing different skills. Maybe down the road HubDub will be able to offer something like this, games and leaderboards for different styles of HubDubbing and HubDubbers?
Patrick
ps admins: Feel free to correct any faulty math or reasoning in the above. You can also use any part of it if you wish as the basis for a math/mechanics of predictions chapter in the FAQ.
I’m worded out.
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this answers the question
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Inappropriate?thanks infernalmachine for that incredible informative read.
you have given me alot to think about.
well done. -
Inappropriate?Hi Infernal Machine
Very nice analysis. Not really much to add.
In-running is great and a very exciting way to follow a game. The problem occurs when there isn't liquidity in the market which results in users being able to make large bets at unrealistic prices (e.g. say a question on a game with a team strongly in the lead and only 5 minutes to play but as no one has been following the question the price is still 50%). That is why we want to restrict most questions to close prior to the game. Selectively we would like to open up questions to be played in-running.
I like the idea of different leader boards and it is something we are currently thinking about.
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