Would it be beneficial to be able to have the ability to set automatic "buy and sell" orders?
Lots of people are making money actively "trading" in real time against the DOW Jones. Is this a violation of the TOS. Does it violate the "spirit" of the game? Or is this another way to make Hubdub even more interesting, competitive and dynamic?
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I have lots of ideas for tools to help Hubdubbers manage their portfolios, and Nigel told me they are working on (or maybe, they are _going_ to be working on) opening up some APIs that will allow ISVs to write software that interacts with the site. That way the HD community, which I'm sure includes at least one other programmer, can create tools that are external to the site so Nigel and crew don't have to do _all_ the work.
I got lucky on some long shot sports predictions and made a bunch of H$. Now I'm having trouble keeping track of everything given the rudimentary portfolio management tools available on the site.
I’m waiting for the API
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Inappropriate?I have lots of ideas for tools to help Hubdubbers manage their portfolios, and Nigel told me they are working on (or maybe, they are _going_ to be working on) opening up some APIs that will allow ISVs to write software that interacts with the site. That way the HD community, which I'm sure includes at least one other programmer, can create tools that are external to the site so Nigel and crew don't have to do _all_ the work.
I got lucky on some long shot sports predictions and made a bunch of H$. Now I'm having trouble keeping track of everything given the rudimentary portfolio management tools available on the site.
I’m waiting for the API
3 people think
this is one of the best points
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Inappropriate?I like the idea of being able to set automatic notices in. I also would like to have the ability to flag a question I want to watch and possibly bid on later.
I’m Excited
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Inappropriate?This is an exciting idea. Time Zone calculator!
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Inappropriate?I'm a developer/programmer! I'd love for the API to open up! I have tons of ideas on how to better manage the "My Hubdub" page!
I’m looking forward to the new Hubdub!
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Inappropriate?i was just thinking it would be nice to be able to watch a question...especially when it is open-ended and hard to find again later in the list.
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Inappropriate?Awesome! You can watch this thread, why not do the same for a question?
I’m waiting for Godot.
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Inappropriate?I've been thinking of all sorts of tools: alerts, automated stop-loss and take-profit orders, volume, price and percentage graphs, even a dashboard to follow my predictions.
But I might have to keep them all to myself to try and catch-up with some of you high-rollers ... nah, that's not going to work, I'm already involved in a 60hr@week technology project, so even if I have the tools, I won't have the time 8^(
I’m liking Hubdub!
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Inappropriate?I surely support helpful tools to track down interesting questions and options, but while I'm already opposed to live / open trading on indexes, this would get even worse imho with automated tasks like those buy and sell orders.
I thought hubdub was about news. If more and more weight is placed on simple trading, I could finde many others and ( as directly centered on trading ) much better places for that kind of entertainment.
I'm sorry, but I really don't see what that kind of engagement has in common with a "news aggregator" and polls. So I give my ok for those tools, but more than ever I demand that pure open trading questions get banned.
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Inappropriate?I agree whole heartedly to a predictions market relating to news events only, and leave the stock market to other established sites.
Perhaps a couple vesions of HD so that we can compete with other like minded wagering folks.
I’m looking toward HD2
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Inappropriate?The DOW and other indices are news, so how and when do you "discriminate" against news stories? It is not local or of interest to a few people only. Also it is one of the few questions that you don't have to wait days or weeks to reach a conclusion.
I’m confident
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Inappropriate?DOW ain't news, indices are themselves just valuations of news, companies efforts, their success and political events / news.
So you just measure at hubdub how something else measures news ? ... boring !
And who says that we need a daily 50-50 gamble ? And it isn't even just one. It's Dow Jones, NASDAQ, S&P, DAX, MIBTEL, Hang-Seng.
And not to forget those additional "specials". Will it reach X or drop below Y ? And the very newest development: crude senseless formulas like 2*S&P + NASDAQ > DOW/2 or whatever it was.
I'm really really sorry, but that ain't any news at all. It just drifts the interest away from the stuff that hubdub should really care about.
If that stuff is really necessary reduce it. Take 2 Indices and ask how they might develop during the complete next week. Suspend it before the weeks begins and fine. That would be some prediction about the next weeks future.
But this crap right now ? You stare at a chart and buy and sell accordingly within minutes ... news ... bah, don't make me laugh :( -
Inappropriate?Please, no automated trading! That would completely ruin HD, as it would overemphasize the gambling part.
@Golwar: disagree: DOW and the like certainly are news. But, yes, *agree*: it would be nice to limit the number of questions on each index. Because, although there are subtle differences in the questions, they are effectively duplicates. -
Inappropriate?Wow! What a diverse range of opinions about the "mission" of Hubdub. I think the community is somewhat polarizing (but not in a real negative way, at this point) into predictors and traders. Predictors invest based on what they think the outcome will be, and would prefer to settle. Traders invest based on how they think the community will react, and often hope to cash in on market fluctuations.
Then there are those of us (and I'm waaay at the bottom end of this!) that have some H$ saved and are looking for profitable predictions/investments who are pretty much forced to merge both strategies. As InfernalMachine lamented elsewhere on this forum, he was forced to take large, market-flooding, positions on sure outcomes because any other investment he made would either be peanuts or skew the market to the point that he would make peanuts.
I have some ideas that would definitely change the dynamics of the site, but I'm not rash enough to post them in this forum. Also, I'd like the Hubdub team to more clearly elucidate their strategy for the site (i.e. it's Mission) before I expound further.
I’m probably in over my head!
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Inappropriate?What's interesting is that HubDub is a "prediction market". So there's no surprise that there are going to be the two extremes (predictors and market traders). It's built into the concept. And presumably it requires both.
In defence of traders, they perform an important function in the market (idea courtesy of doloop). They spot where a market doesn't reflect the likely outcome (if they're good at what they do) and correct it, because there is guaranteed profit in doing this, while betting (just predicting) is taking a risk. That's why most of the top twenty are traders. They are taking much less of a risk with their money, because they are only predicting what the community will predict (to some degree of certainty), and may well cash-in before the outcome.
Admittedly, that is not the only way to play here, and it is not the most obvious approach ("It's all about the predicting."). And most people will be a bit of both.
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Inappropriate?There are questions about various American TV shows like Survivor that I consider neither news nor interesting, so I just don't vote on them. They don't upset me though. I assume they have value to others, and who am I to tell them what they want to predict on. There is a solid subcommunity at hubdub who participate in the market questions daily. The weird questions you mention, which I wrote, were obviously geared to this community, who might find them a little challenging and thought-provoking even. Admittedly there's a touch of Monty Python in them too. And they are of no interest to many others. But does that make them wrong?
I guess I just don't understand why the market questions make you so angry. I mean, it's not like you can't create much better questions about way better topics here. That's the great thing about HubDub. We can write the questions. Obviously with so many question makers, there will be many topics that bore you or even irritate you, but as long as the questions aren't designed to cheat, so what? Just ignore them. -
Inappropriate?Yeah, pretty much 2 extremes. But I get the uncertain impression that I'm all alone on my side ;)
Imho just another more or less trade-centered game isn't anyting the web needs ... again. I could play any stock exchange game ( besides the fact I am already am an economist by profession, which leads to the conclusion that I surely don't want more of that as an hobby, hehe ) for the same or even better result.
Damn, I could even pick any Browsergame like Galaxywars or whichever game has a market and trade part. It's always the same about buying cheap and selling expensive. That ain't a stroke of genius.
It is ok as long as trading is just a pillar on which the predictions are based. But if predictions and questions are just arbitrary exchangeable components to push the prices around for the highest profit, well it simply ruins the right to exist of hubdub.
It would be nice to see on which questions the most money is made currently. I'd be greatly astonished if it wasn't by those several daily indices games. The only utilizable kind of information we gain from that, is the fact that many many people out there are willed to stare on the charts for quick up & down reactions. Besides that there is absolutely no result gained ( nah, more virtual cash doesn't count ), what wise man usually call a complete waste of time. Right ? =)
I don't say that the other questions out there are all tremendously innovative, creative and informative. But if there ain't any intention to embank the flood of worthless but lucrative gambles, we'll never see any greater effort for the real stuff. Those few that raise up will simply perish.
Sorry if my english skills fail to communicate my intentions properly. Well, I'll leave it anyways to the hubdub staff to make their pick. I repeated myself often enough: indices and similar "questions" need a major reconsideration. I'm just surprised that I'm seemingly the only one with this desire.
I’m tired after this transcript at 1:30 AM
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Inappropriate?Golwar I have always tried to play devils advocate when proposing questions to this forums community.
I can agree with you on many of the points that you convey. Unfortunately most of us humans have incredibly short attention spans (we Americans are the worst of the lot) so most of the action centers on the quick and thrilling return.
All the H$ (a meger $6000.00) I have acheived has come from the indicies markets. I was tired of being at the bottom! I really cannot find an interest in long term strategies either. The creating of questions and seeing how the market moves one way or another that's what interests me.
There is room for lots of different "fetishes" on Hubdub. My only "beef" is that the game is not being played fairly and the fact that the Hubdub team seems disinclined to drop the hammer on cheaters.
Transparency, Transparency, Transparency!
God Dammit, Transparency! LOL
I’m waiting for Godot!
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Inappropriate?Dude,
You are not alone. I became a Hubdubber because I had heard rumors about the predictive potential of futures markets, and Hubdub provided a risk-free (in terms of real $) way to experience this. But as I accumulated H$, and other users accumulated lots more H$, the markets changed.
I _am_ competitive, so I wanted to not only experience the market, but to excel in it, and as the number of participants rose, and the time the market took to correct decreased, I took more trading vs. predicting positions (not too successfully as it turns out).
I don't think this is an all or nothing proposition. As each user gains more H$ their strategy will change. As the market matures and more H$ are invested, those users with lots of H$ will find it easier to take positions without unduly influencing the market in which they invest.
I'm hoping Hubdub is in some weird Purgatory. Right now it is difficult to find good predictions in which you can invest thousands without affecting the odds, and there aren't sufficient tools to allow investors to easily manage hundreds of wagers on predictions. If the site grows enogh, there will be enough investment to allow the top players to at least take reasonable positions, and that will make the advanced portfolio management tools less necessary.
I’m competitive, and verbose!
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Inappropriate?"Let's go."
"We can't."
"Why not?"
"We're waitng for the Godot question to be settled."
"Ahhh!"
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Inappropriate?Didi?
Vladimir: Yes.
Estragon: I can't go on like this.
Vladimir: That's what you think.
Estragon: If we parted? It might be better for us.
Vladimir: We'll hang ourselves tomorrow. Unless Godot comes.
Estragon: And if he comes?
Vladimir: We'll be saved
I’m happy
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Inappropriate?just want to tell the post folks hear how much I have enjoyed reading this thread.
I’m multiple tangents endowed
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Inappropriate?This was such a ( sorry ) fucking perfect example today, about what is so totally wrong with open indices questions. We had 3 DJ questions, 2 with multiple outcomes which mostly hit 0% and thatfor were real cheap investments, with a huge benefit as the DJ decided to make a long huge jump at the finish. So everyone went along from slot to slot, like a brainless herd pushed around by some simple digits.
I also had some bucks in each of those 0% slots, I sold the others on their high peaks when I was lucky enough - it wasn't perfect but I made a nice win overall.
But I really wonder what all that has to do with predicitions and estimating news. DJ should have made so much more money today than anything else, so that the complete rest decays to side shows.
I don't know if the staff is just too concerned about the technical side atm and remains silent thatfor on this topic. Or if they keep those indices meanwhile as pure entertainment to keep the users at HD, till HD leaves beta to put some efforts into the substance in those later stages ... or if they really think it's perfect the way it is. Whatever, they didn't share their thoughts on this and it's getting worse. So I'll draw the conclusions and thatfor say bye.
That isn't meant to set anyone under pressure as in "oh no, he impends to leave if ...". Nah, I'm sadly not that special, hehe. I just felt that Nigel & Co deserved to know the reason why I left, as I guess that I'm not the only one with this aversion. So keep an eye on a balanced mix of substance and good luck with your further development, cya.
I’m thankful for some nice weeks here, but enough is enough.
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Inappropriate?First I would like to say goodbye to Golwar, sorry to see you go. I like the open questions on the markets, I like the fluidity, the ability to participate and see movements. I would think that a site in which you simply place a bet then waited for an outcome would quickly become unpopular. I think that is why you see such huge activity in markets that close sooner rather than later. Tying up money in long term questions while might be a certain way to get a particular return (ie. Will Bush serve out his term) might be safe and reliable, it won't move you up the leaderboard. I would like to see the site become more able to include breaking newstories. Today for example a plane was having issues with its landing gear, I would have enjoyed a question about whether the plane would land safely, however, I am not creating the question because I can't vote for 12 hours and event will be over by then. I have stated here and elsewhere I disagree with questions on television shows that have already been filmed. These shows often get thier results leaked, and therefore the wager is not a prediction, just putting money on a known outcome.
I love the HUBDUB site, think the administrators are doing an amazing job of keeping the site fresh and exciting, the new tools are incredible, and the response to thier users is impressive. -
Inappropriate?Destry,
I agree with you. I'm sorry to see Golwar abandon HD (he had a lot of great input in these forums), and I have no problem with the fluidity of the in-game market questions.
I have a demanding job and don't really take part in the predictions on the indexes (except for the occasional loss of some H$), but I do believe they are "News". Actually, they are pretty solid news if you look at typical US mainstream media. Many days whether or not Brittany Spears was wearing panties whilst partying in LA is considered news (ack!)
I’m not telling what _I'm_ not wearing 8^)
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