Intrade
is committed to open conversation about its products and services. Conversations should be conducted in the spirit of the Company-Customer Pact.
The peak value is the value that GDP will be compared against to calculate the percentage change in GDP each quarter. If GDP has declined by the amount specified in the contract (either -10.0%, -15.0% or -10.0%) from this peak value then the contract will expire at 100.
The current peak value is Q3 2008. The GDP figure for that quarter was $14,412.8 billion.
If any quarterly GDP figure is greater than the current peak value then a new peak value will be established. GDP will then need to decline by the specified amount from this new peak value for the contract to expire at 100.
For example...
The current peak value is Q3 of 2008. The GDP figure for that quarter was $14,412.8 billion. If GDP declines by more than 10.0% from this peak value then the -10% contract will expire at 100.
Lets say that for Q2 of 2009 the GDP figure is $15,025.7 billion. This is greater than the current peak value of $14,415.8 and therefore becomes the new peak value. GDP will now need to decline by 10.0% or more from this new peak value for the -10.0% contract to expire at 100.
I received an email from Thomas of the Customer Support Team saying that the interest paid for balances over $20,000 for the quarter ending June 30 2008 would be credited by the end of last week (week ending August 16) but the interest has not yet been credited.
One of the trades is: "Increase in US Government debt if non-Democrat is elected president in 2008." What happens to the trade if a Democrat wins? Is it a push, or do both bets lose?
idea: figure out an easier way for people to get money into their intrade accounts.... my guess is that this is what is limiting the amount of volume traded on intrade -- those interested in starting out are put off by not being able to use credit cards in the US, and those who can use a credit card from another country then later on run into the arbitrary credit card limits, which are fairly low. My bank contacted me initially on credit card approvals and I feel that is sufficient security. In any case, do you realize the negative impact this is having on your business -- intrade for the US presidential election has a much higher profile in the media than it does actual volume... for what other reason than difficulty in depositing, and perceived risk of giving money to a website in Ireland. You should do something as well to let people know that they have their own segregated accounts, and give this a higher profile. Using a bank in the US may help as well. You have a great site but need to do something to grow this faster.
suggestion: You should make it easier for prospective members to understand that a price of 50 is actually $5. It took me quite a bit of looking around originally to figure this out.
In addition, although all the accounting reports provide good detail, the summary stats on the position aren't easily understandable. In particular, I don't belive that the PL always is my mark to market. Ive taken to just adding together my frozen and my available to see how i'm doing (roughly). You should put more effort into diagnostics that could pop up and show people how they're doing. You should package all of the typical "confusions and objections" that an interested but cautious member has into a very visible "button" that they could press as a quick start to get the minimum amount of info and confidence you need to actually join...just sticking this is various help locations isn't enough to jumpt the credibility barrier. You should link this info to external web reputational sources to bolster it.
As the site is, the small volume of there is partly reflective of the fact that only 'early adopter' types (like me) can figure it out enough to use it.... your commitment to prediction markets is laudable, and the amount of money on there impressive, but you haven't really made the leap to a true market on a global scale...that would make the predictions really valuable.
In addition it needs to be easier to put money into an intrade account (see my other post).
Is there a single contract available for trading the "featured chart" of Obama V McCain? Also, is there a link that will load a refreshed image of the featured chart? With thanks. Intrade is fantastic! J. W. Smith
In an ongoing effort to improve our member-funding options we are now pre-clearing cashiers checks up to the value of $500.00. Any cashiers checks that are received up to this value will be immediately credited to your account. The standard ten-business day clearance period will not be enforced.
Any larger cashiers checks will have $500.00 cleared to your account immediately, with the remaining amount added after the check has been fully cleared by our bank.
If your cashiers check is for $500.00 or more than you may also use our FedEx account free of charge. Please email help@intrade.com for our FedEx account number.
Please note that all personal checks and money orders will still be subject to the standard ten-business day clearance period enforced by our bank.
If you have any questions regarding this please do not hesitate to contact us at help@intrade.com.
Intrade's FAQ declines to express any opinion on the fundamental question of whether placing an Intrade wager violates the law. IMHO, it is irresponsible of Intrade to offer a service without offering any suggestions or guidelines as to whether it might be illegal to partake of such a service or not, or whether it is an unsettled question of law. I have to assume that since Intrade is shy of endorsing the legality of internet trading that it is technically forbidden, at least in the USA, and therefore, I will have to abstain from trading for fear of breaking the law.
Too bad. I am an economist who sincerely believes in the wisdom of crowds and the vital importance of prediction markets. I believe that if the law is wrong, you have a moral obligation to work to change it. I wonder what Intrade is doing in this regard.
When you google intrade.com, the join mccain to win... comes out under intrade.com headline, what is up with that? To be fair, should you also have OBAMA to win 2008 ???
If you use this company's products or services, we'll add the company to your dashboard. If you work for this company, we'll add you as an employee. Got it, thanks!