anaverageamerican's dashboard

TW,

I appreciate your efforts on my, and sure lots of other users', behalf, but I was not intending to press this issue any further. I lost some H$, boo hoo, but it is just a game, we need to maintain some perspective.

In addition to rule changes, which apply to the community, perhaps we should also be collaborating on guidelines for the administrators. When to suspend a market, and what (not) to say in the comments of an open market spring immediately to mind (for some reason 8^). I'm sure the community and the admins would have lots of ideas that I have not thought of on this topic; perhaps the admins have already drafted guidelines of which we mere users are unaware.

I'm not concerned about my personal loss of H$, but I would like to see something constructive for Hubdub emerge from the "Elliot Spitzer sub-slime crisis"

Infernal, Lady Lara, HD Admins & Jerry's Just Trolling,

I ask the question, "What is Hubdub trying to be?". One minute it's a news prediction site, the next it's a casino.

I refuse to take a philosophical position on this issue. IMO Hubdub is a game. I like the combination of news prediction and casino. OTOH, I think this causes a great deal of conflict in the HD community. It would be good if the HD admins would clarify their mission and broadcast it to the community.

Through questions and comments on Hubdub, and more so through participation here on GetSatisfaction, I've been engaged with quite a few folks who have earned my respect and admiration. We sometimes (usually) have differing opinions, but the level of discourse has been pretty high. I'm not trying to dictate to Hubdub whether they _are_ a news prediction site, or a futures market. I do think it would benefit Hubdub if the folks running the site made a decision regarding this issue and enacted rules in support of their decision (whether I like or not, I volunteer to help with the rules).

I'm in the "announcing your resignation means resigning" camp despite the date it takes effect. Over the years I've had many co-workers and subordinates resign, only to be retained as consultants, how would Hubdub rule on that. I think it is important to keep the "predict the news" meme foremost on Hubdub ... and that means accepting questions at face value; which does not always mean parsing the question.

IMO, at the time this question was created the intent was quite obviously, "When will Spitzer announce that he is resigning?". All of the pro and con arguments citing dictionary.com, etc, are just users trying to protect _their_ positions.

I propose that trusted Hubdubbers, particularly those that have participated in _this_ forum in good faith, should approve questions prior to their submission to the main site.

Given the many contentious questions and questionable settlements
I may create this question on Hubdub, "Is Hubdub a News Prediction Site or a Futures Market?". Where should I set the initial odds?

I'm screwed in this market regardless, but www.ny.gov is does _not_ qualify as a "mainstream media source". It might be more accurate than the mainstream media, but that should not matter to Hubdub.

I agree with InfernalMachine. I have great respect for TruthWrangler but feel the application of a complex formula to approximate snow accumulation was probably _not_ the intention of the original question. I have no horse in this race, so I'm completely impartial. In fact both InfernalMachine and TruthWrangler are friends (and kicking my butt in the most serious way 8^), so I'm not taking sides, just expressing my opinion.

It's definitely sub-something, but I'm not certain of what. I've got it! It's the "sub-slime" crisis! Perhaps the federal government should be providing tax rebates to johns who paid a lot for high-priced hookers 8^)

Mr. Clean indeed!

Speaking of trolling, I think this guy's doing a much better job than you Jerry.

You mean Spitzer questions, right 8^)

TW - my decision to cash in wasn't based on seeing the news prior to Hubdub. I'm working waaay too hard these days for that. I stole a few minutes during lunch to check my positions, saw that this position was taking a beating and went immediately to the comments. When I saw Ryan's comment I decided to salvage what H$ I could. The upside for Hubdub was that I went to Hubdub for the news instead of CNN or FoxNews. The downside is that I based my decision on the comments of an official representative, and now it looks as though it _might_ settle in (what would have been) my favor.

Whatever, it's a game and it's in beta so glitches should be expectation not the anomaly.

Hey TruthWrangler,

I think once it's voided there aren't any next steps, at least that's my assumption based on other, similar, situations posted in these forums. I think the problem with unvoiding are keeping track of what everyone's position was prior to the voiding. You have to do that so you can take away the original wager you refunded and restore the market to it's unvoided state.

I think this should be settled based on printed material. I've looked at the linked photo on three different monitors and it's purple on two of them and blue on the other one.

Void works for me as well since Purple wasn't a choice and I invested in Red ... No Yellow ... Ahhhhhhhh ...

Blue + Red == Purple! Rohan wins 8^)

The thing I find most annoying about this situation is that Ryan posted in the comments of this question how he intended to settle it, and based on that comment I cashed in at a considerable loss (relative to my net worth).

Here's Ryan's 2nd to last comment on this topic (the last announced this GetSatisfaction forum):
"The Governor has not stated he will resign on March 12th. He has said that his resignation will be effective next Monday. This means that no resignation has occurred on the 12th. I know some may not like this decision (looking at the odds), but the market does not state a announcement of resignation but "resign."

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor".

If you are responsible for settling the question, and you are make comments such as this, the markets will definitely react, though I don't see much news prediction value in _how_ they will react. IMNSHO, if there was any question about how this question was to be settled it should have suspended immediately upon Spitzer's announcement being reported. Had that occurred, we could be having this conversation with all parties standing to gain or lose based on how they _predicted_ the news. Since it is still open, many will profit based on the near certainty of the outcome (the likely outcomes were initially reduced to one, and may now have expanded to two).

In light of Ryan's comment I feel the only fair outcome for this market is to return the initial investments to all Hubdubbers and void the question. I would not have cashed in if Ryan had not posted his comment, I would have expected the question to be suspended, in order for the escalation process to move to this forum as has occurred in the past (i,e, Where will the dead spy satellite hit earth?).

OTOH, if this does not happen I'm not going to quit Hubdub and publish my password in the comments 8^)

nubbins,

Thanks. I figured this just had to be a human error since the figures in the settlement details supported No, despite the fact that it settled as Yes.

Great idea InfernalMachine! I might yet climb atop my friends' leader board.

As far as end-of-quarter issues, that's interesting (but this _is_ starting to seem like I'm still at the office 8^). It might make sense to start a topic here to get some community feedback about how to handle these issues. The HD team has done a great job of soliciting community feedback, and from this forum it appears that the community is quite involved, intelligent and diverse (we even have a poet, right InfernalMachine? 8^), so I would expect the feedback to be pretty constructive and informative.

I don't think this is going to work for Hubdub questions. Where am I going to find a link to a mainstream media source about whether the Hubdub community will correctly predict the outcome of the Aussie F1GP? Or for InfernalMachine's question about whether the community will successfully predict a derivative of 12 financial markets?

It probably won't work for a lot of weather questions either.

Nor are financial market fluctuations aren't necessarily tied to specific news stories, but the will the Dow finish up or down?, is a very popular question.

I don't think there's a high probability of HD being turned into a "death casino". A more relevant question might be whether HD is a casino at all. At this point I believe HD is quite a bit more than a pure news prediction site, and for me that is part of its appeal.

@tisha,

I agree that you shouldn't discuss whether a specific situation is "suspicious gaming activity", and why, on a public forum. However, if some general guidelines can be distilled from the private conversation please share them.

It even says in the settlement details that the difference was 118.7°F. How is that settled as "Yes"? The question asks if the temperature difference will be _less_ than 110°F. This has to be changed to "No".

According to the otficial HD rules, delegate count rules:

Unless otherwise stated a state primary/caucus/convention is decided based on delegates (not super delegates). A question will only be settled by the popular vote if that is explicitly stated in the question.

I agree in principle, but thought that this suspend time was far too close to the time the polls close. I'm not opposed to some in game play, but imagine wagering on a football (you know, your kind of football) game, where the wagering began a week ahead of time and was permitted to extend 'til there were 15 minutes left in regulation. Would that be fair?