anaverageamerican's dashboard

anaverageamerican replied on February 25, 2008 23:11 to the question "Escalation: Should we void these questions?" in Hubdub:

I'm not sure that either the Jesus or alien question can necessarily be settled unambiguously. Which is not to say that there are no circumstances in which they can be independently confirmed, just that there may be some circumstances where determining the truth will not be possible, someone claims they are Jesus or that Ahmadinejad is an alien for example.

I actually think this question:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_p...

should be voided because someone who believes the Apollo landings were staged isn't going to be convinced that it wasn't by some photos "allegedly" taken by a Japanese space probe.

anaverageamerican replied on February 24, 2008 20:50 to the problem "Bad language and similar concerns - naming the "evil"" in Hubdub:

Tom,

Did you mean to post a link that requires authentication?

anaverageamerican replied on February 24, 2008 20:36 to the question "Self-referential questions, why aren't they allowed?" in Hubdub:

It might have been settled, but I don't think it should have been. I've left comments on the question explaining my reasoning.

http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Which_...

anaverageamerican replied on February 24, 2008 20:31 to the question "Self-referential questions, why aren't they allowed?" in Hubdub:

Yeah, but he's not your kid 8^)

anaverageamerican replied on February 23, 2008 16:44 to the question "Self-referential questions, why aren't they allowed?" in Hubdub:

I thought the "Will this question settle as No?" was pretty clever actually, though I understand why it could not be allowed. It was much better than the "Which Hubdub admin will settle this question?", which obviously cannot be settled.

anaverageamerican replied on February 23, 2008 16:40 to the question "A question of morality" in Hubdub:

I don't think the issue of morality pertains to questions posed on Hubdub, but rather to the intent of the Hubdubber posing the question. Questions about the death, presumed death or possible death of public figures (including military deaths in war), posed as reasonable questions that can be settled impartially are perfectly within reason.

Immorality would occur if a user posed a question about the death of a public figure and then killed them, which I think is extremely unlikely.

anaverageamerican replied on February 23, 2008 16:34 to the question "Question About the Spy Satellite Crashing Question Suspension" in Hubdub:

Pretty good point Erik. On the other hand, if the news reports are accurate, none of the pieces are going to land anywhere. They're going to burn up in the atmosphere.

anaverageamerican replied on February 23, 2008 02:49 to the idea "Would it be beneficial to be able to have the ability to set automatic "buy and sell" orders?" in Hubdub:

Destry,

I agree with you. I'm sorry to see Golwar abandon HD (he had a lot of great input in these forums), and I have no problem with the fluidity of the in-game market questions.

I have a demanding job and don't really take part in the predictions on the indexes (except for the occasional loss of some H$), but I do believe they are "News". Actually, they are pretty solid news if you look at typical US mainstream media. Many days whether or not Brittany Spears was wearing panties whilst partying in LA is considered news (ack!)

anaverageamerican replied on February 23, 2008 02:36 to the problem "Suspend Date/Time Bug" in Hubdub:

Nigel,

Is there any expected fix date for this bug? Or some way of communicating with the appropriate HD admin to get the suspend date edited? I have two open questions that I thought might be controversial, and were pretty well thought out, that totally suck without a settlement.suspend date.

Since making H$ is so difficult, I take a lot of time browsing questions and looking at the settlement details. Most of them are terribly ambiguous, but wind up getting settled anyway. I try to keep my questions to a higher standard, and I'm depressed that my carefully calculated suspend date is missing.

anaverageamerican replied on February 23, 2008 02:27 to the question "Self-referential questions, why aren't they allowed?" in Hubdub:

Let's say I'm at, or near, the top of the leaderboard, and I have H$150k that I cant find any predictions worth investing in. I start slowly feeding H$ into this question, I don't have to rush since I have a whole week. I invest in small, but ever increasing predictions until I increase the percentage of No predictions as it looks like this will certainly be No. Then, at the last moment I put enough H$ into Yes to make the outcome certain.

It would take a fair amount of effort, and other HD users following my lead (on No) to make this profitable, but that is why self-referential questions are not allowed.

anaverageamerican replied on February 21, 2008 05:06 to the idea "Display Original "Likelihood Percentages" on Question Page" in Hubdub:

I can see where this is leading (or maybe where I am leading it :P) On top of 60+ hour work weeks I'll be a "trusted user", and spend another 60 hours reviewing questions for Hubdub.

Story of my life (I mean lives ... only I can hear the voices 8^)

anaverageamerican replied on February 21, 2008 04:18 to the idea "Display Original "Likelihood Percentages" on Question Page" in Hubdub:

TruthWrangler,

That question is top-notch. Many Hubdbbers put the fine print in the Settlement Details. Personally, I think that is okay, but I think many users never look at the Settlement Details 'til they want to settle. Putting the nuances into the background ensures nobody can say, "It was buried in the Settlement Details". Props to you!

TruthWrangler and InfernalMachine,
I'm opposed to the question creator getting to set initial odds. IMHO, it is antithetical to the concept of Hubdub as a news predictor to allow an user to set initial odds on a prediction, that could influence other users predictions/investments. This practice is ripe for gaming, and even in the most sincere of circumstances, can lead to some Hubdubbers gaining an unfair advantage.

IMO the only way to address this is by, either having HD admins preview, and approve, all questions prior to their being open for investment by the community, or the same thing via some mechanism of trusted users previewing questions

anaverageamerican replied on February 21, 2008 03:59 to the question "Incorrect questions: to flag or request settlement? that is the questions" in Hubdub:

This has been a very informative thread, nice question Skipper. I have been using "Request Settlement" to try to alert HD admins about questionable questions, because "Flag for Review" never seemed to get any response. If the HD admins are being alerted to flagged questions, I'm happy to use their preferred mechanism.

anaverageamerican replied on February 21, 2008 03:51 to the problem "Suspend Date/Time Bug" in Hubdub:

TruthWrangler,
This seems to be a definite bug, typical beta!

InfernalMachine,
You are correct, the question creator may select a suspend date, but not a settlement date (now I know how you got towards the top of the leaderboard 8^)

anaverageamerican replied on February 21, 2008 00:23 to the idea "Nationalities" in Hubdub:

Okay,what's his email address?

An Average American ;^)

anaverageamerican replied on February 21, 2008 00:14 to the idea "Display Original "Likelihood Percentages" on Question Page" in Hubdub:

I couldn't agree with you more TruthWrangler, this is a great suggestion. It might also be an indicator of the quality of the Hubdub community at predicting events.

anaverageamerican replied on February 18, 2008 02:54 to the idea "Nationalities" in Hubdub:

Nigel,

I appreciate your cosmopolitan nature, but I think it would be a good idea to maintain tight links between country-specific sites. I think country specific sites, eventually, are a great idea.

I hope they can be a source of inspiration to some of my more clueless countrymen that there is actually a world that does not revolve around the US, and that there are thoughtful individuals inhabiting that world.

anaverageamerican replied on February 18, 2008 02:44 to the problem "New leaderboards are wonky" in Hubdub:

Chris,

I'm not sure I agree with this logic. If it is Hubdub's policy to credit users for predictions that were originally settled incorrectly, and also credit users for predictions that were later resettled correctly, it seems inconsistent not to include _both_ sets of credit in the leaderboard calculations.

Just my two cents, and I enjoy Hubdub as much at 107th on the leaderboard as I did at 13th, or 53rd.

Regards,
An Average American

anaverageamerican replied on February 18, 2008 01:48 to the idea "Nationalities" in Hubdub:

Golwar,

I'm a citizen of the USA, but there are a bunch of items on your list about which I admit I am completely clueless (I know what some of these are, but have no knowledge that would allow me to make informed predictions):

* NBA All-Star
* American Gladiators
* WWE
* Will Kimbo Slice defeat Tank Adams on February 16th? (why are you so sure this is about the US? I have no idea what this about either)
* SmackDown
* California Cycling
* US Deal or no Deal

On the other hand, you have Daytona on your list 4 times, College Basketball twice, and NCAAB twice (those last two are the same thing, FYI).

You also think a question about Pakistan is a good thing, and I agree with you. I'm a news junkie so I'm pretty aware, at least by US standards, of Pakistani politics. Can you post a link to the question to which you were referring, I might be able to find a decent margin on a question 8^)

Lastly Golwar, I didn't mean to be negative in my original response, and I don't think it really _was_ that negative. On the other hand, if I can see how someone from outside the US might interpret it that way, so if I offended you, I apologize.

As I said in another thread, I think your idea has merit, but I think the community has to grow and mature more first.

_I_ don't want to be the vector that fragments _this_ community!

anaverageamerican replied on February 18, 2008 01:35 to the idea "Nationalities" in Hubdub:

Golwar,

I've been a 'net participant since I was a part of rec.autos.sport.f1 on the usenet back in 1989. I've watched at least 50 internet forums, in which I was a participant, dissolve into total flame wars I'm not trying to be harsh (actually I'm trying not to be harsh), but I sorely miss some of those forums in which the signal-to-noise ratio was excellent one day and completely frll apart within a couple of weeks.

So if "splintering" sounds hysterical to you, it sounds cautionary to me.

I'm not entirely to your idea of publishing the nationality of users, and even having national "clubs". I just think it is too early in the community's development.

I think it is great that there is community involvement in this forum (including your input Golwar, particularly since we seem to disagree so often ... I'd hate to think that _I_ represent the entire community, and I believe intelligent debate makes the community stonger), and I'm impressed that the Hubdub developers are soliciting input from this hyper-involved segment of the community, but we are not the entire community.

Let's allow the community to grow without introducing features that might slow the growth of the community.

Regards,
An Average American