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BlueSeaMiami marked one of InfernalMachine's replies in Hubdub as useful. InfernalMachine replied to the problem "Settlement resolution: washington temp".
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BlueSeaMiami marked one of NewsWrangler's replies in Hubdub as useful. NewsWrangler replied to the problem "Settlement resolution: washington temp".
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BlueSeaMiami started following the problem "Settlement resolution: washington temp" in Hubdub.
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BlueSeaMiami replied on February 20, 2008 00:54 to the problem "Settlement resolution: washington temp" in Hubdub:
I would agree with Steph. 50.0000001 is a break of 50. 50 = 50. I wouldn't call it a break.
Chris, is that the official ruling from here forward?
Also I can see vicinity being debatable down the road. It appears most DC weather is gathered from the airports on the outskirts of the city, not in the city. I would say that vicinity still qualifies as DC, but wanted to be sure. -
BlueSeaMiami replied on February 19, 2008 17:39 to the problem "Incorrect Settlement" in Hubdub:
You'll never hear me whine and cry like you do 4d. If I'm wrong, I shake it off and move on. And that's exactly what I'm doing, even though I wasn't 'wrong.' For all your ramblings, you've failed to correctly address the issue which I'd stated.
A better policy ought to be in effect when conflicting data is presented, by multiple sites. This is a news wagering site. Truth ought to matter from ANY mainstream source. Just my view. -
BlueSeaMiami marked one of Nigel Eccles' replies in Hubdub as useful. Nigel Eccles replied to the problem "Seeking repeal for the 50% penalty.".
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BlueSeaMiami replied on February 15, 2008 22:33 to the problem "Incorrect Settlement" in Hubdub:
Why does it always feel like I'm talking to the wall? Can anyone possibly address the issue at hand instead of turning defensive? I'm seeking intelligent answers only.
I'll say it again:
This brings up a critical issue for the future of the site. Does inaccuracy count as valid?
If NFL.com reports Tom Brady passed for 210 yards, but Fred's Page.com said he passed for 201 yards, or FIFA.com said Ronaldo scored 2 goals but SoccerFreak.com said only one goal, which one matters?
The site rules mandate data from a 'major, reputable news source.' I thought the truth counts for something, regardless.
*** I submit that if the question is based on settlement from a non-reputable news source and the truth can be proven from a MORE reputable source, at the very least, both sides should be declared winners.***
Thoughts relevant to the above issue are welcome. -
BlueSeaMiami replied on February 15, 2008 22:06 to the problem "Incorrect Settlement" in Hubdub:
Question was: Will the temperature at Washington D.C., USA fall below 0 degrees Celsius on Wednesday, 13th February 2008?
Answer was: YES. It reached -1.1 Celsius or -30 F.
This brings up a critical issue for the future of the site. Does inaccuracy count as valid?
If NFL.com reports Tom Brady passed for 210 yards, but Fred's Page.com said he passed for 180, or FIFA.com said Ronaldo scored 2 goals but SoccerFreak.com said only one goal, which one matters?
The site mandates data from a 'major, reputable news source.'
I submit that if the question is based on settlement from a non-reputable news source and the truth can be proven from a MORE reputable source, both sides should be declared winners.
Destry & AvgAmerican, Glad you won. This is far less about my useless 'virtual dollars' and more about ambiguity going forward. This issue requires addressing as it'll no doubt come up again and again.
PS: Destry, do you wear that tie in public??? ;-D -
BlueSeaMiami replied on February 15, 2008 21:25 to the problem "Incorrect Settlement" in Hubdub:
I think any website (Weather Underground) that posts incorrect data against a renowned authority for the data doesn't qualify as reputable. If the sight was reputable, they'd have posted the correct data. I was under the impression that the rules for the site call for a report from a major, reputable news site such as the National Weather Service (NOAA). Weather Underground isn't major and isn't reputable in the US. -
BlueSeaMiami marked one of rohan's replies in Hubdub as useful. rohan replied to the problem "Incorrect Settlement".
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BlueSeaMiami reported a problem in Hubdub on February 15, 2008 03:52:
Incorrect SettlementHi guys! Normally wouldn't make a fuss, but since the question was graded wrong and they took $20k from me for being right, I wanted to mention it. Here's the link:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_t...
Please note my 'Comments' in the respective section of the question page. Temps got to -1.1 C in Washington DC-- around -30 F. A non-reputable, non-mainstream news source was used in the question settlement. I attached a link to the NOAA National Weather Service site proving I was correct. Temps did in fact drop on 2/13 below 0 C around 11pm.
Thank you!
Best,
BlueSeaMiami -
InfernalMachine's reply to "Communicating with other members" was just promoted to the most useful! BlueSeaMiami and 2 other people think it's one of the best replies.
I agree. Sort of. Doesn't this possibly making cheating by collusion too easy? I mean that could go on outside HubDub already, but this opens up new opportunities to form cartels easily. I'd be more comfortable with this if the chatting was public and archived.
Unfortunately, public chat has its own problems, with spam and rudeness, etc., and it would use up human resources to monitor and arbitrate that would perhaps be better used elsewhere.
Isn't this better left to the HubDub Forum at
http://www.hubdubforum.com/
(Am I not a good acolyte, TarHeelV?)
Patrick -
BlueSeaMiami marked one of Steph's replies in Hubdub as useful. Steph replied to the question "Should Hubdub players be allowed to "hide" their predictions by making them private? What is the rational for this feature?".
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BlueSeaMiami marked one of anaverageamerican's replies in Hubdub as useful. anaverageamerican replied to the question "Should Hubdub players be allowed to "hide" their predictions by making them private? What is the rational for this feature?". BlueSeaMiami and 4 other people think it's one of the best replies.
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BlueSeaMiami marked one of Tom Griffiths' replies in Hubdub as useful. Tom Griffiths replied to the question "Another new rule?".
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BlueSeaMiami replied on February 07, 2008 00:53 to the problem ""Will North Dakota Reach -50 degree tempuratures" Prediction" in Hubdub:
Wrong again, 4d. I don't cheat. I saw the question was open and took a wager based on a very strong hunch. I was thrilled but not at all surprised to find out I was right.
Anyhow, I lost the $9,000 I'd won on the SuperBowl on a confirmed program bug issue. NOTICE, I didn't cry or whine-- I took the loss even though it set me back 33%. That's called being a man. And low and behold I made all back in less than a week. So I guess ALL the money I KEEP MAKING is from gaming the entire stock market also, huh? Lmao--
And Shadow, you're still whining and still in the bottom 1000 members... Nice job. -
BlueSeaMiami replied on February 04, 2008 08:52 to the question "Three key issues to be addressed to help improve the system..." in Hubdub:
Thank you so much, Nigel! Excellent answers, thanks again. I'll be happy to send you the exact questions with the bugs later today to your email address.
Hey, you're in one of the most stunningly beautiful and scenic parts of the country! Hope you drove a good part of the way on Pacific Coast Hwy. Try to rent a convertible if things warm up a little. Have a blast and congratulations on the progress of the site!
Best,
Jeff -
BlueSeaMiami marked one of Nigel Eccles' replies in Hubdub as useful. Nigel Eccles replied to the question "Three key issues to be addressed to help improve the system...".
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BlueSeaMiami asked a question in Hubdub on February 04, 2008 06:35:
Three key issues to be addressed to help improve the system...Hi, Guys!
I can't say enough about what an amazing idea HubDub is and how much fun it is to wager on real news! I hope someday we may be able to wager real money.
Tonight I ran across three issues which I wanted to bring to your attention to help optimize the system and reduce cheating.
1) As is often my style of investing/wagering, I'll make an initial wager, then later re-asses and decide to add to it, withdraw it or leave it. Tonight while adding to some of my Super Bowl bets, I noticed when you initiate additional bets on a question you've already bet on, if large amounts of additional money are put to work ($4,000+,) it can cause the odds meter to jump slightly, increasing the value of your original bet. Would it be unethical to 'Cash Out' your previous bet at that point, thus banking the immediate profit jump caused by the new self-added wager?
I say, in some ways yes, in some ways no. You can bank the profit, I imagine, but would still be locked into the wager at a less advantageous price to you. So maybe the profit banked offsets the larger gain if you're right.
I felt it was unethical, so I didn't do it. Which leads me to question two.
2) All my capital was fully wagered with almost nothing to spare. I came across new questions I wanted to bet on. In order to free up dollars, I was forced to cash out of some prior bets. For one of them I bet $5,000 early(!) at around 60% Yes. The question was now up to 84% Yes, so I should've had profit in the question built-in-- however my balances showed a drawdown on the current question showing it was at 34% Yes and reflecting a loss to me of around $2,000 on the question. I was only looking to free up dollars for other bets, but didn't want to take the erroneous $2,000 hit to my $5,000 wager before the outcome. But I saw the current odds were at 84% Yes, so why did it show -$2,000 @ 34% instead of up $1,700 at 84%? The same thing was showing on two other bets, as well. Just wanted to bring that to your attention in case it was a universal bug.
3) Though I've not taken advantage of this as it's cheating/gaming the system, I've seen many instances where betting is still open on questions after news outcomes have already been published. Shouldn't there be a universal standard to end all wagering one hour or more before the end-result is expected?
Just wanted to share my discoveries in the hopes of assisting you guys in making the site a smash success.
Thanks!
-Jeff
[BlueSeaMiami] -
BlueSeaMiami marked one of Tom Griffiths' replies in Hubdub as useful. Tom Griffiths replied to the problem ""Will North Dakota Reach -50 degree tempuratures" Prediction".
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