crudsy's dashboard

The other markets were banned. It had nothing to do with being in-play or not. At the moment, the only index questions are about the Dow and Nasdaq. – InfernalMachine, on June 18, 2008 07:20

well the simple solution is to make this a true prediction site..predictions must be made b4 there is any possible final answer..while some in game sports and stuff may be fun it may turn out to b more fun if everybody knows there is an equal chance for everyone at all times and if they really are good at predicting events they will have a chance to move up even if they cant stay on their computers all day

My sentiments exactly. – Markov, on June 16, 2008 14:03

Skipper - Needless to say everyone except children knows the world isn't fair. I often have to remind my kids of this. However, the common theme to this particular forum site has been how to make Hubdub better and if you've been reading the posts for very long you would be aware that fairness has been a critical component of that effort. Perhaps my major failing in this thread has been my initial assumption that all of the participants' comments have been driven by the common goal of bettering Hubdub. My mistake. If we can't even agree that an even playing field will best serve the Hubdub community then you reading my comments is about as worthless as me reading your responses to them. How unfortunate. I guess I'm just going to have to ponder this awhile to see if I can handle it. – Markov, on June 16, 2008 14:01

hey u blokes i live in Australia, i get no chance only to guess on indices in the USA i remember (quote epicur saying i will have to find another cash cow unquote) i registered early but did not start using hubdud for three months being a sports person i have a go at those, i love the site and enjoy , but what really gets up my nose are those who do not make predictions open., just look up your leaders then you will understand what i refer to (perhaps), and how many of you work i wonder
let all indices be included as before as some one said you can always cash in surely this site is for ever one it is based in the UK and not the domain of only Americans lets have a level playing field.

This is a delicate issue which is not easily solved to please everyone. I hope people who are upset/thinking of leaving Hubdub realize Hubdub is in its infancy stages and changes will be made as time goes on.
Like Nigel said, some sporting events are in a trial phase of in-market to see how they go. Maybe there will be more sports events added to in-play questions, or maybe it will be done away with all together in future.
All indicies were allowed as in-market at one time, now its down to a couple. The # of indicies allowed as in-market may increase again as curios stated you want in reply #9, or all events with a certain begin time may suspend at that time in future.
All these discussions are part of fine tuning process of Hubdub. I am not a hubdub rep, superuser or anyone special- Just someone who knows like anything in life, you learn by trial and error. Hubdub will try some things, make mistakes, but in the long run will learn and grow from it all and be better and get better as time goes on.

Markov, I don't mean to sound rude but, guess what, in the real world everything isn't fair! There is day trading in stock markets, fair? No. People close to sport teams bet on games, fair? No. but guess what, that's the real world, those who work harder/have more access can win. Can you handle that? – Skipper, on June 16, 2008 06:02

Nigel,

There is no way to remove the unfair advantage from in-running questions on indices or sports when it gets down to the last day. It's a totally different dynamic with requirements beyond the capability (sports and indices) and access (for the indices) of most users. The only solutions are to either put an end to it or have a separate Hubdub for it that does not registers earning towards the primary Hubdub site.

The excitement of in-running wagering can be maintained to some degree by continuing to allow questions with suspend dates like these two examples:

1) Week (or month or whatever) long index questions that suspend 24 hours before settlement date.
2) Week (or month or whatever) long sports questions that suspend 24 hours before settlement date.

This will allow for wagering on fluctuations yet substantially reduce sure bets placed by those with privileged access via real time business access and/or too much time on their hands. Additionally, it will add credibility to the top of the leaderboard and reduce the number of people who feel they are getting screwed. If I had real time index access and/or felt like hanging out at my computer every day between 3:30 and 4:00 I could jack up my numbers pretty quickly at the expense of people who are working or sleeping and grab the hollow mantle of victory. However, this does not strike me as fair to others, indicative of my prediction prowess, or fun.

If there was a site exclusively dedicated to such "day trading" it might be interesting to have a go at it once in awhile, but co-mingling this with the vast majority of other question scenarios on Hubdub seems to be like mixing oil and water. IMHO single event in-running questions simply do not belong in this venue.

Curious, it is because they do not have Cat Eds to stay up and: A) suspend the markets and B) Settle the markets in a timely manner Plus the liquidity aspect. – Skipper, on June 16, 2008 05:45

trading the dow can still b a short term prediction but it would b a prediction b4 the likely result is known and everyone would have an equal opportunity to make money on it..as it stand now most u.s. people work during the stock hours and are not able to access the dow constantly through the day and incur full losses while people who have access can take less of a loss by cashing out..that adds up..many sports are in the evening especially the big games and therefore more people have access to them equally..betting on the dow when it is up 200 points doesnt seem very challenging and even if u lose one of those once in a while overall u will come out way ahead..i dont really bet the dow but this is how i c it

sorry nigel you are playing into the hands as to your part2 why only us indices trading they there selfs are wrongly put if you want to know y ask me but not on here .....ok

yes bob i have lost two on the bundersberg league i find the fun site yery entertaining – curios, on June 16, 2008 02:04

To date our decision on whether to allow in-running questions has depended on two things (1) liquidity of the market and (2) availability of admin staff to monitor them. We closed down the non-US indice questions primarily for the second reason however it was clear they weren't nearly as liquid as the US indices.

Liquidity matters as if the market is liquid it is difficult to make quick risk-free profits. We are constantly monitoring this but at the moment there is no plans to cease indice questions. In fact we are trialling in-running sports questions. In my view both of these are very exciting.

The primary problem here is how people are rewarded for different activity (i.e. a long term prediction versus trading the Dow). Both are challenging but it does feel that the current system overly rewards short term trading. We don't want to penalise that but it would be good to have a system that recognises both more equally. Any thoughts on that?

I'm in complete agreement. – Markov, on June 15, 2008 19:56

I had to read your post three times to make sure that I understood it correctly. I'm new to HubDub so I realize that my opinion probably doesn't carry much weight but: If you go to a bookie and try to place a bet after an event has started the chances of them allowing it are almost null. I would think that some of that same reasoning would apply here. Also, if you are going to disallow this type of betting in one catagory then what makes it legal in another catagory? Seems to me that the rule is there to benefit a very small number of users that know how to manipulate the system and make it work for them. It seems that I read somewhere that the powers that be were attempting to stop just this type of action on the site yet they have rules in place the seem to benefit them selves? Since I know very little about the stock market playing this type of hedging would not seem to benefit me (or the routine user) at all - on the contrary it would seem to put us at a serious disadvantage to playing the game which in all likelyhood would encourage us to leave the board all togather. Just my two cents worth. – AllenB, on June 15, 2008 19:25

I think it would be interesting to have an admin weigh in on this topic. With 10 of them supposedly getting updates on this, seems like this issue merits some official positioning.

It would appear nobody is cheating on the indexes as the rules clearly allow for in-running wagering in this category. However, I personally believe the current rule to be severely flawed and am hopeful it will be corrected soon. Until then, users wagering on the indices have every right to continue wagering as they see fit, if only to avoid falling behind others who take advantage of this highly questionable rule. Whatever damage has been done is water under the bridge. I respectfully challenge the Hubdub admins to take action as soon as possible to clear this thing up. It strikes me the best arguments for both positions have already been made and this contentious issue is ripe for a ruling. Fairness to all and consistency relative to other rules should be paramount to the final decision. Let's just take a good, objective look at the facts and arguments and put this thing to bed.

I've been getting more of these lately... "Oops, sorry. You've found a bug!". Plus I had two stakes on the Stanford NCAA Baseball game I do believe, and only received credit for one. Oh well, it doesn't matter.

I'm down to about $H37,000 so my departure from Hubdub is getting closer. I don't expect Hubdub admin to change things for just me. (e.g. Suspend stock and sports, etc. questions before the event(s), begin.), but I have chosen to not participate in it. As I've mentioned above, to me this is not true news prediction(s), but "gaming" and "gambling".

I am not arguing, but only stating my view. Hubdub's admin has the right to operate their web site the way they want to, and though I don't agree with the stock and sports issues I have mentioned, I am very impressed with Hubdub, and wish them well. As with any web site, the owners, admin, etc. can't please everyone. After leaving, perhaps I'll return in several months or so to see how things are then.

Take care y'all. Mostly, I have had a ton of fun at Hubdub.

Yep.! Well put Markov. With regards real time access to the indices - perhaps some users have access to Bloomberg terminals? Those buggers are in a constant state of update, way beyond (if by only a minute or two) anything online. – jimbo, on June 15, 2008 04:52

I agree 100% too with Destry's comments - but if the DJIA markets exist, then I also think ontilt you have a good idea there too. The once a year sporting events, if played in-running, could be quite good fun - for example, I could see a lot of us having a bit of fun prediciting the outcome in-game of the marathon at this year's Olympics. The DJIA questions are possible five days a week - I guess it's a sort of ATM for some users - whenever you run low, just nip into the DJIA for a quick top up. This seems to be against the spirit of HD somehow, and I stick by the idea that the number of points on the DJIA at close is not really news. – jimbo, on June 15, 2008 04:47