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Donal replied on June 20, 2008 07:50 to the question "How do I "appeal" if I feel a question was settled wrong?" in Hubdub:

Atrane; you are right in that the question was settled incorrectly, but not precisely for the reason you state.

When doubleheaders occur as a result of a postponement and scenarios such as this arise, we settle questions on the results of the game originally scheduled when the question was created. The originally scheduled game was the first game that the Rangers won but the question was settled by one of our admins on the results of the second game which the Mets won.

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Donal replied on June 18, 2008 23:55 to the discussion "In Play NBA Final market feedback" in Hubdub:

First of all...Thank you very much to Destry for doing so much of the running on this. Thanks also to the other superusers who supported this endeavor. If we are going to have in-play going forward, we will need super-user support. We are really appreciative that the Super Users (especially Destry) made this possible.

Some thoughts on in play in general

- This was the second time we had in play and the first time we had in play supported by Super Users. We learned a lot from this and on our end, we will be working on the processes surrounding the selection, approval and running of in play events and questions.

- I agree with Destry that in-play should be restricted to major events. and this has been the policy since day 1. We will take a look at what events we will have in play for going forward. A lot depends on the liquidity envisage the willingness and capability of admins and superusers to monitor in play markets

- I think we did maybe have a few too many questions during the NBA finals games. For the superbowl, we just had 10 questions. For some of the NBA finals games we had over 15 (even approaching 20 I think). I think in-play works best when liquidity is concentrated on and spread over fewer markets during the game. I'm not saying we can't have lots of in-play markets for a given event, but going forward in the immediate future I'd be inclined to be initially restrictive of the number of in-play markets for a given event and over time as we get a good feel for the volumes we are likely to get on a certain event then we can increase the number of questions. For example on week one of the NFL regular season, we could have 5 markets on the MNF game. If that works well in terms of liquidity we could have 6 or 7 in week 2 and over time find the optimum number. What I am essentially saying is that we should take a more gradualist approach to the number of in-play markets on a given event.

- I wouldn't be as inclined to agree with the suggestion that we suspend in play markets before the conclusion of an event such as suspending after the third quarter markets on football games whose outcome will be known at the conclusion of the game. If we would have adopted that approach for the Superbowl we would have deprived users the opportunity to make predictions on who will win and who will be MVP during a very exciting 4th quarter. We must also remember that not all in-play markets will be exciting and that unlike the superbowl this year, the outcomes of many events will be pretty much a given during the fourth quarter/9th Inning/2nd half, whatever; its something we just have to live with.
Donal replied on April 01, 2008 20:35 to the discussion "Suggestions/Thoughts on creating well formed MLB game specific questions." in Hubdub:

OK

In the case of the question BostonGraf referred to, the wording referred to March 31st and "Opening Day". Given that no precedent has been set for this, I decided that given that the game would be played the following day (technically I may be wrong on that contention) and that the same pitchers would be starting, I would edit and extend the question.

I admit though that this could cause difficulties in the future

I'd suggest the best way to go is as follows - MLB game questions should be created just like other good hubdub questions and feature
- wording referring to the date of the game
- accurate starting odds
- preferably a link to background material, in the case of MLB, info on likely starters would be great.

If the game is postponed, I would suggest that that questions directly about (I emphasize this phrase) the game be voided.

This, I feel is the simplest approach
- it means we can have multi-outcome and yes/no questions
- it avoids the unseemly inclusion of a postponement outcome

You could argue that this would be a little harsh if the game is postponed and re-scheduled the following day and ends up having the same scheduled starters; and that we could have rules to account for this.....but from my experience of Hubdub to date, this would undoubtedly lead to complications down the line.

So - to summarize, I am in favor of tieing an MLB game question to its scheduled date (at the time the question is created). In the event of a postponement, the question is voided.

Any thoughts????

BTW - big thank you and major props to BostonGraf for raising this issue

Other that that - Go Os!
Donal replied on March 23, 2008 11:35 to the question "New category" in Hubdub:

You already have a category....its called "Cricket"

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Donal replied on March 10, 2008 09:44 to the question "Contentious questions (part 3)" in Hubdub:

When it was reported that Partick Swayze has cancer, it was also reported (probably incorrectly) that he had five weeks to live. His prognosis is a key part of the story; so tasteless or not, it is a legitimate question.

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Donal replied on March 01, 2008 21:55 to the problem "Siena vs. Niagara NCAA Basketball - Settlement Incorrect" in Hubdub:

I've corrected this

apologies for the error

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Donal shared an idea in Hubdub on February 27, 2008 15:55:

A lesson in converting odds to percentages
Hey

In the Sports section, I want to encourage more people to base their initial starting percentages for sporting events on the odds offered by online gambling sites/oddsmakers. One of the best sites for this is oddschecker.com which aggregates odds from a range of sources.

So heres how to convert the fractional odds quoted into approximate outcome percentages for Hubdub:

- Odds will typically be quoted in a fractional or over/under format.
For example NBA: Cleveland @ Boston on Feb 28th: Oddschecker quotes Cleveland at 45/17 and Boston at 1/4

- To calculate the percentages for an outcome: divide the under number (denominator) by the sum of the over (numerator) and under (denominator) numbers. Heres the formula: (under/(over + under)) * 100 = outcome percentage

In the example above:

Cleveland - (17 / (45 + 17)) * 100 = 27 (27%)

Boston - (4 / (1 + 4)) * 100 = 80 (80%)

But 27% + 80% is 107%? - The sum of the calculated percentages will always be over 100%. The additional percentage over 100% (7% in the example) is what the gambling site make their revenue from.

To comply with the Hubdub rule that outcomes must add up to 100%, just take a few percentage points off each percentage so that the percentages add up to 100% and the ratio of the percentages with respect to each other remains similar. In the example above setting Cleveland to 25% and Boston to 75% would be acceptable.

Hope this helps and encourages more of you to set more accurate starting percentages.

Regards

Donal
(Hubdub Sports Editor)
Donal replied on February 26, 2008 16:29 to the idea "Why don't you allow users to void their own questions incase they have mistaken something??" in Hubdub:

Because then they could also void it if the likely result of the question isn't in their favor

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Donal replied on February 24, 2008 14:24 to the problem "Incorrect Settlement" in Hubdub:

It was originally and correctly settled as No

Donal

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Donal replied on February 22, 2008 14:30 to the problem "Wrong settlement" in Hubdub:

Has been re-settled now - apologies for the error

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Donal replied on February 21, 2008 16:08 to the question "A question of morality" in Hubdub:

I don't think there can be a "line" drawn against which we can appraise the moralit y of all questions going forward. You could say that we can't have any questions pertaining to the possible death of a public figure. But then is predicting the death of Britney morally equivalent to predicting the death of Osama Bin Laden?

If someone creates a well structured, settleable question in a genuine (as opposed to a malicious) manner, then he/she and most likely others deem it to be legitimate and moral. As far as I am concerned, If I feel a question is immoral, I won't create it, nor will I make a prediction on it.

That said however, I would not at all be surprised if some legitimate question is voided in the next year on moral grounds (probably due to some groundswell of opposition). It all depends on the context and the circumstances. Since you can't predetermine the circumstances (a vaguely ironic statement in the context of Hubdub), you can't draw a line.

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Donal shared an idea in Hubdub on February 20, 2008 14:31:

NFL Draft questions - Rules, Clarifications etc.......discuss
Hey

As my recent post on the Hubdub Blog suggests, I'm looking forward to seeing how the NFL draft works on Hubdub, it being a sporting event that owes a lot of its popularity to predictions.

But I'm also aware that there is the potential for issues to arise. So, as questions on the Draft are now beginning to appear, I thought it would be helpful to start a discussion on acceptable NFL draft questions and how to settle them.

I'll start....

Acceptable Questions

Range Questions: NFL Draft - Where will Matt Ryan be Drafted?
- Ranges should be exhaustive. I'll allow for obvious exceptions, but try to have the outcome corresponding to the lowest draft position/range included the words "or lower": e.g 2nd round or lower
- If undrafted is not listed as an outcome, then question will be settled as the "as lower" outcome

What will they do questions: NFL Draft - What will the Falcons do with the 3rd overall pick
- I think it is preferential if these questions refer to specific picks and have an outcome that allows for the team to trade it away (either up, down or for a player). Having a question refer to their first round pick may cause difficulties if the team ends up with more than 1 first round pick (see the 49ers last year)
- The Kevin Williams precedent. Although Kevin Williams was drafted 9th overall in 2003 by the Vikes, he was actually drafted with the 7th overall pick as the Vikes didn;t submit their pick on time.

Team, player questions: NFL Draft - Will Miami draft Chris Long
- A Yes/No question.....pretty straightforward: Yes if Miami draft Chris Long anywhere from pick 1 to 255

Who will questiosn: NFL Draft - Who will draft Darren McFadden
- always include an Other option
- Subject to the Eli Manning/John Elway precedent. Eli was drafted by the Chargers, Elway by the
Colts (the real colts, not the Indianapolis re-threads!)

Trading Up/Down: NFL Draft - Will Team trade up in a round
- should refer to the round in question
- trading up in the first round defined as trading one pick in the first round + other picks/players to get a higher pick in the same round.
- Question - How should situations like the Browns last year be dealt with? Is that considered trading up?

Positions
- as listed on nfl.com
- Offensive: QB, HB, FB, OL, TE, WR
- Defensive: DL, LB, CB, S
- Special Teams: K, P, KR
- Should we break down DL and OL further? - Personally, I don't think so
- There could be difficulties on Full Backs, Kick Returners, and the deliniation between a 4-3 end and a 3-4 LB...I'd just go with the NFL.com listings.

Also some other points
- Spygate: there are only 31 picks in the first round this year.
- Please prefix all draft questions with NFL-Draft

If you have any thoughts on the above or any further suggestions on how to deal with draft questions(I must have overlooked something), please discuss.

Regards

Donal
(Hubdub Sports Editor)
Donal shared an idea in Hubdub on February 20, 2008 14:14:

Sports Questions - Prefixes, Dates etc
Hey

We are getting a lot of good quality Sports questions. There are some great question creators and I'm noticing some very positive things emerging in the manner that these questions are created...namely the inclusion of prefixes and dates for sporting events.

By prefixes, I mean something indicating the sport, event or competition the question refers to. Here are some examples (that also reveal my own personal biases):
NFL: Will the Ravens win the Superbowl?
MLB: Will the Orioles win the World Series?
NCAA BB - Will the Terps make the Final Four?
UEFA Cup: Will Tottenham win the UEFA cup?

The inclusion of dates in Sporting event questions is also very important, especially for Regular season games in all sports (A named event like the Daytona 500 is less of an issue)

So....I'd just like to congratulate and thank you for your efforts so far and encourage ye to keep up the good work (especially with the two items referred to above)

Regards

Donal
(Hubdub Sports Editor)
Donal started following the idea "Proposed product fix: Claw-back of winnings on void" in Hubdub.
Donal replied on February 11, 2008 15:10 to the idea "Sports Questions Suspend Time Issue" in Hubdub:

I'm not particularly in favor of allowing questions open into the first hour of a game as I think its a bit arbitrary. TV times aren't a reliable closing time because games can go into overtime. On betting exchanges such as Betfair, in-play is an all or nothing proposition. There is no midway cut off points. I think this is the best precedent to follow.

In any event, liquidity is the major consideration when choosing to let questions go in play, and at this point the number of sporting events that would provide the necessary liquidity is limited.

Donal
(Hubdub Sports Editor)

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Donal replied on February 09, 2008 15:00 to the idea "Sports Questions Suspend Time Issue" in Hubdub:

At the moment, I go through every question. Where I miss a question, I void wagers after the start time.

But I have found that more users are making an effort on this, especially on the NBA, NCAA and NHL markets. So major thanks to all the users that are getting this right!

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Donal replied on February 04, 2008 03:33 to the idea "Super Bowl XLII in-play questions" in Hubdub:

Well....that was a great game

We would be interested to hear how you felt the in play questions worked....good idea or not?

Donal
(Hubdub Sports Editor)

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Donal shared an idea in Hubdub on February 03, 2008 17:45:

Super Bowl XLII in-play questions
To date we have been following a policy of suspending sporting event questions before the sporting event begins.

For Superbowl XLII however, we will be letting some Super Bowl questions go
in-play. This means that they will be open for predictions during the game.

Here are the questions that will remain open during the game

Who will win Superbowl XLII?
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_wi...

Patriots vs Giants - Superbowl XLII - Who will win?
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Patrio...

Who will be named Superbowl MVP?
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_wi...

Will Plaxico Burress' prediction of a 23-17 Giants victory in Super Bowl XLII be correct?
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_P...

Will the Patriots cover the 12 point spread in the Super Bowl?
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_t...

What will be the total points scored in the Superbowl?
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/What_w...

Will the winning score in the Super Bowl occur in the last 2:00 of the game?
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_t...

Who will be leading at half-time in Superbowl XLII?
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_wi...

Lets hope its a great game and that you (not me of course!) have fun making predictions on it while you are watching it!

Donal
(Hubdub Sports Editor)
Donal replied on February 03, 2008 16:49 to the question "Should Hubdub insiders who settle questions be allowed to make predictions?" in Hubdub:

Hi

I agree with Nigel. There is a conflict of interest. I am therefore cashing out all my positions on the Sports questions and will refrain from making predictions on them in future.

While I accept that there is a conflict of interest, I will defend myself against any implication that I have used my status as a Category Ed to my advantage in terms of the leaderboard.

"I am not a crook"

.....and I am absolutely 100% positive that the same goes for all the other Cat Eds. The integrity of the competition is of utmost importance to us, so we are going to do our best to maintain it and are not going to do anything to undermine it.

Thanks for your feedback and participation in sorting out these issues and helping to make Hubdub a fun and high quality site.

Donal
(Hubdub Sports Editor)

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Donal replied on February 03, 2008 16:27 to the problem "Will this question be voided?" in Hubdub:

(I will assume you are being serious)

It is not possible to settle the question. Therefore, it violates much of the published criteria on settlement issues

Donal
(Hubdub Sports Editor)

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