Golwar's dashboard

Golwar marked one of doloop's replies in Hubdub as useful. doloop replied to the question "Have we become too concerned about gaming ?".

Golwar replied on February 14, 2008 17:47 to the question "Have we become too concerned about gaming ?" in Hubdub:

1. jersjusttrolling hd$323,753
2. pics4d hd$280,417

If you guys wouldn't be so friendly I'd have left hubdub meanwhile.
Well, the truth is that I abandoned playing anyways, but I'll keep an eye on the development here ;)

Golwar replied on February 14, 2008 16:06 to the problem "How does the system work?" in Hubdub:

Hum, well that might be a point where we just have different expectations at hubdub rohan ;)
For me it is currently far too much about great gains, is it based on completly under / overrated probablities by the questiongivers, by market manipulations or whatever. So if one of those problems solves itself as it's getting more and more unattractive to those with huge stacks ... wonderful ! :P

Raising the initial limit just to keep the benefit from totally misguided questions a bit longer would be simply counterproductive.
I'd really wish if our dear scotsmen would point out if they want to develop more of an serious service or more a kind of game. Later one just cares for fun and who might make however the most virtual money, former one sets priority on realistic reflections of opinions and offers a platform to share those.

Both together seems contradicting, at least that's my current impression.

Golwar replied on February 14, 2008 15:11 to the problem "How does the system work?" in Hubdub:

Ahem, that current system is very clearly intentional and has all logic on it's side.
The idea of hubdub is to weight predicitions. In opposite to polls where every person has only his single vote, you can measure your opinion by the cash you invest. So of course your bet is regarded in relation to the total inverstments too.

If the overall invested budget on a question is rather small, one huge bet changes balance more than in a huge market where the same bet is only a small fish in the pot.
I don't see anything wrong here.

Golwar replied on February 14, 2008 11:28 to the question "How can we improve My Hubdub?" in Hubdub:

I'd like a calculator which translates a target probabilty into cash.
Right now we have those 3 buttons for 20/50/100 investments and how those influence the probabilty. But that surely isn't of any help for those guys who put in $1k or more.

So when "Yes" is at 34,5% for example and I want to invest till it hits 41,0%, than I'd like a box where I type in 41,0 (%) and it tells me how much money this would need and if I want to do this investment now. That would prevent that market rushes up and down between the extremes just because we put in far too much money.

Oh and I'd suggest a maximum level of participation for every user on any question. Would prevent that a handfull of players dictate the trends or take all the advantages on good chances ( not to mention that it prevents manipulations - not including the multiaccounts problem of course )

Golwar replied on February 14, 2008 11:15 to the question "Have we become too concerned about gaming ?" in Hubdub:

No, that wasn't related to wrong set settlement dates. I made some errors there, but donal corrected everything in time.

It's obvious that those question have been manipulated pre-match and all of them at the same time and with the same strategy.

Golwar replied on February 14, 2008 11:09 to the idea "The Royal Bank Of HubDub" in Hubdub:

Just some few minutes ago I mailed Nigel a suggestion to add an interest rate on long termed questions, to make those more juicy for the potential "investors".

But besides that I don't really see a point in your idea. If you loan your money away it will just grow with the same speed that all the others also receive there - and that will usually be significantly slower than any actions on the market.
So the result with the bank should be pretty much the same as without the bank. If you don't actively use your money you fall behind in growth rate, you don't want that to happen so you ignore the bank as long as there is any acceptable question left.
It sounds like a better and secure investment over the holidays and an additional investment for those who have more money than they can spend. Rather than that I would support a monthly reset and a hall of fame for previous winners, would solve all the problems.

Or more radical - ban the cash in button. Ban open life questions like those on the indexes. Ban hubdub questions. Just make it all more about news and polls and less about gambling.

Golwar replied on February 13, 2008 19:53 to the question "Have we become too concerned about gaming ?" in Hubdub:

Oh whow, well that was something that happened with my UEFA Cup questions.

http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/UEFA_C...
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/UEFA_C...
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/UEFA_C...

Those are just examples how the markets have been manipulated. I was lucky ( seems like a dozen others on the leadersboard ), recognized what happened and took advantage ( went from 25k to 40k ).

I doubt that it's necessary to mention how annoying this is. I invested quite some time in good predictions and playing the game the way it was meant to be. But neither is there anything like a real developing poll / market, nor is it entertaining to match with the elite as there isn't any real elite.

So this was probably my last day at hubdub. I don't see a point in creating questions or in evaluating probabilities when all that really matters is the cash in button at the right time.

Golwar replied on February 13, 2008 10:19 to the idea "How Many Hubdubbers Are There?" in Hubdub:

I think wouldn't really change that much about the leaderboard itself. Just give every single user a more detailed feedback about his own progress and everyone will be happy.

So when I check the profile of someone else for example, don't tell me only his amount of cash - also give me his current rank ! Mention the total number of (active) players. Create a statistic summary of each players development day by day, month by month - just so that you see how much he improves or when he failed big style ( including some graphical display of course ).

With those gimmicks it wouldn't be necessary to change the leaderboard, as there will always be only a very small minority mentioned - however the leaderboard is designed.

Oh and perhaps one should consider to offer a restart ( with H$ 1000 ) to those who lost (nearly) everything. Just mention that restarts get noted in their profiles in a kind of tally sheet. So you won't lose those people who ain't satisfied with $20/day and it's still possible to clarify who totally failed.

Golwar started following the idea "Question creators should be able to Add/Remove news tags for heir questions" in Hubdub.

Golwar replied on February 13, 2008 10:02 to the idea "Question creators should be able to Add/Remove news tags for heir questions" in Hubdub:

Good idea. But does anyone really check the offered news anyway ? I trust my own searches & sources more :)

Golwar replied on February 13, 2008 10:01 to the question "New rule?" in Hubdub:

I like the new limit. It prevents that a market can be totally dominated by just one person at once. If he has to put his money in step for step, those few seconds more give others the chance to participate too, before the hugest ones ruin the prizes for everyone.

So thumbs up !

Golwar replied on February 12, 2008 21:21 to the problem "Delays in settlement" in Hubdub:

I was able to make +598$ ( spread over 3 bets ) with the 88 bucks I had available. Just a hint how much more I could have reached with my 20.000$ stuck elsewhere.

And the NASDAQ question was settled just within few minutes, while I had to wait hours and hours at the italian index, even as I offered all the necessary links just within few seconds.
So it's probably not like nobody from the staff is available, it's more about which questions get higher priority and which don't ?

Perhaps I should create a hubdub question. I pick 4-5 other questions and let the people guess which one of those will suffer most from the settlement delay :P

Golwar replied on February 12, 2008 20:36 to the problem "Delays in settlement" in Hubdub:

Damn, NASDAQ offers such a great opportunity with a late turnaround and my cash is "prisoned" in MIBTEL since 4 hours :(

Golwar reported a problem in Hubdub on February 12, 2008 14:18:

Delays in settlement

I know that your staff is still rather small. And of course nobody can be available 24 hours / day, but nevertheless I must mention that it currently ain't satisfying.

I have for example, pretty much exactly 2/3 of my cash in this question:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_t...

This was shut down about 6 hours ago, 3 hours ago I requested settlement with 2 links to news which clarified that the capital didn't fell and the rebels fleed instead even further away.

So my problem: I can't cash in without losing almost all of my expected win, as most of the activity on that question was caused by myself.

On the other hand I remain forced to minimum activity while I found another soon to be settled question that is ... well pretty much pure gold, with current standing at 80% and a probability of 99%.

So please, there is obviously not each day time / time zone equally covered atm. It's really disappointing if you are handicapped because most part of the staff is asleep, at work or whatever.

Golwar replied on February 12, 2008 11:32 to the discussion "New: Hubdub questions now have their own category" in Hubdub:

http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_t...

I don't really see how some very very rare good questions on hubdub, might sanctify the complete rest like the linked question.

It's not about any real news, it's possible to influence the outcome ( aka cheat ) and it's not really interesting in any thinkable manner. The gain of accepting hubdub questions is thatfor minimal, while the possible negative results are tremendous.

The earlier you make the logical step to stop this, the better ( and easier to do so ) for hubdub.

Golwar replied on February 12, 2008 11:06 to the idea "Product development: Power user vetting and leaderboards" in Hubdub:

I think the requirements could and should be a bit higher for the status of a power user.
Well it really depends on the level of charge you'll want to burden onto those users. But just 5 good questions ? ... that can be done within 10 minutes, while it surely doesn't gurantee a users addicition to the right stuff after those 10 minutes ;)

Golwar replied on February 12, 2008 10:55 to the problem "Account Settings Bug" in Hubdub:

I also use Firefox and I have the very same problems.

I guess the bug is similar to the one who sometimes makes my predicitions public and sometimes not, while I never ever dare to care about that stuff :)

Golwar started following the problem "Account Settings Bug" in Hubdub.

Golwar replied on February 12, 2008 10:52 to the idea "Would it be beneficial to be able to have the ability to set automatic "buy and sell" orders?" in Hubdub:

I surely support helpful tools to track down interesting questions and options, but while I'm already opposed to live / open trading on indexes, this would get even worse imho with automated tasks like those buy and sell orders.

I thought hubdub was about news. If more and more weight is placed on simple trading, I could finde many others and ( as directly centered on trading ) much better places for that kind of entertainment.

I'm sorry, but I really don't see what that kind of engagement has in common with a "news aggregator" and polls. So I give my ok for those tools, but more than ever I demand that pure open trading questions get banned.