InfernalMachine's dashboard

Good point – InfernalMachine, on July 04, 2008 21:02

@onedave
How about replacing "Human aid required to return all dolphins to ocean" with "All dolphins return to the ocean with some human aid"

As far as I know, voided questions can't be re-opened. Something to do with the way the code for voids is written. But there is now a feature to copy an old question of yours, and repost it. Since these questions still have time to run, that should work out okay for you.

Here's what you do. Go to your profile and click on "Questions". Scroll down to where your Voided questions are, and click on the question you want to repost. In the top right of the question page there's a button saying "Copy question as new". Click on it, and you will get to the question creation page, with all the previous info filled in. Change what you need to, maybe put a note in the background text that it's a Repost, check that the suspend date and time are as you need them to be, as well as the category and subcategory, and publish it.

One suggestion. The NYC question was fine, but you might want to consider the comments you got on the Dolphin question. Adding an "Other " option might satisfy your critics. Another thing might be to rephrase the second option so that everyone knows that if "any" dolphins are aided, this choice is correct. Also, you should consider when you want the question to be decided by. The last one was voided because nothing had happened by the suspend date. Pick a suspend date long after you think something will happen, so that the same problem doesn't occur.

It's a bit of a pain, but the copy question feature really takes the slog out of reposting a question.

Hope this helps.

yup. this is me: http://infernalmachineblog.blogspot.com/

I'm going to do some posts on hubdub issues, ideas for possible improvements, sports (or other) fantasy leagues for hubdub, how to make hubdollars primers, and general stuff about prediction markets. at least that's the plan

Some thoughts:

1) Amazing job, Destry.

2) I hope that in future some of the "major events" include some international action. The Euro2008 soccer, the World Cup, even a cricket or rugby match. Most of all, the Olympics - there must be some events that would work well with in-play.

3) I agree with Donal on the hesitation about cutting off wagering too early. To my mind, it somewhat defeats the purpose of in-play. Half the fun of in-play is the excitement of turn-arounds, especially as the deadline approaches. That gets lost if we cut off too early -- it's just an opportunity to recalculate new likelihoods based on later information. Of course, in-play only works fairly if there is sufficient participation. Otherwise it's pretty well free money for the few.

I do see the value of cutting off with a minute left though. But whatever is chosen as cutoff, it must be clearly announced so as to be understood by the players. If I had one small criticism about the NBA questions, it was that in later games the cutoffs seemed a little too early, and so felt a bit arbitrary.

4) If there's a worry about people making too much profit on in-play questions (assuming the market has liquidity), I'd suggest maybe lowering the maximum single bet to $1000 for these markets. When a given outcome becomes extremely likely in the collective mind (say 90+%), the way to still make good money is to wager high (5-10 K). Although it's still a small risk, it's basically a safe bet. If we lower the max, 10 people could get in on the action, and the profits are spread around a little. (NB I'm not saying a limit on how much you can bet on a question overall, just a limit per prediction for in-play that is lower than the $10K for general questions.)

5) It would be nice if a group of in-play questions that all are to be suspended at the same time could be done so with one command and message by the admin or superuser.

6) If in-play is here to stay, and is seen as an important component of hubdub, then I think there will need to be some consideration of technical issues particular to it. Page reloads are troublesome now (probably because of the cross-site social bookmarks additions). Also, the important info is just the likelihoods and ones own predictions -- it would be great to be able to refresh these alone in-page.

But the biggest irritation for fast-paced predicting is the issue of what happens when the market moves between when you see the prediction page and when hubdub receives your prediction. (The cash-in feature works ok for this - it alerts you to the change but allows you with one click to continue or cancel.) But with predictions, I have found that you need to cancel the whole transaction, return to the question page, and start again, which kind of ruins the in-play fun.

I believe the whole "queueing of predictions in a market" protocol needs to be looked at again to make this work properly for in-play markets.

The other markets were banned. It had nothing to do with being in-play or not. At the moment, the only index questions are about the Dow and Nasdaq. – InfernalMachine, on June 18, 2008 07:20

That would be great. Probably not that difficult to implement either. – InfernalMachine, on June 11, 2008 06:33

my money's on jenniandboys! just think, our own britney! – InfernalMachine, on June 05, 2008 18:38

There's a further sense to "drama queen": someone who gets their own way by creating loud protestations of wounded indignation, when in fact there is no cause for such behaviour. The original settlement of the question should have stood, and this thread seen for what it actually is. – InfernalMachine, on June 04, 2008 23:25

Yes. Questions should have any currency references tied to the location in which a payment would be made. – InfernalMachine, on June 04, 2008 23:17

They could be interesting if they are likely to jump up and down and back up over time based on events out in the world. Otherwise, I agree, they're a drag.

The initial odds of 80% Yes should have been 5% Yes if currency rates really mattered to this question. – InfernalMachine, on June 04, 2008 21:15

"no shit" as a reply is not "cursing"
"drama queen" is not a "bigoted sexual orientation slur"
They are slang terms, but in neither case do they have the intent you are attributing to them.

"making accusations without evidence" - Well, I would say he was suggesting that your intent towards the question was not entirely in keeping with the spirit of the game. While, of course, he has no evidence of your inner state regarding the decisions you made when predicting on the question, your public statements are available. The insistence on re-settling a question based on a technicality (which goes against a common sense interpretation of the question) does suggest you are more concerned with the profits than the intent of the question (after all, it was mork's question, and his comments are highly relevant to the discussion, not to just be blown off as irrelevant). Finally, your unwillingness to consider seriously that your interpretation of the question would mean the initial odds of the question were horrendously wrong (and thus subject to voiding) does reveal that your aim in the discussion was not to get a fair ruling, but simply one that benefited you.

I don't see that the issues you are raising about the particular superuser are of more than minor concern. Could he have expressed himself better? Probably. Couldn't we all? Couldn't you? Did he abuse his authority in this case? Not at all.

What exactly are superusers? That may well be a discussion that needs to occur. Remember the plan is to extend the number of them, so it's not just a question of the few currently operating. They are players first, and it is in the context of their familiarity with the site, and their actions as regular players that they were chosen. In other words, it's a bit of the lunatics helping to run the asylum.

Maybe in future we should not allow the "if X occurs, will Y occur" type of question. If X doesn't occur, the statement is true regardless of Y, by the rules of logic. Not allowing this type of phrasing would force the creator to think more about the question, and hopefully ask a better and more durable question.

Everything about this election (especially the Dems) is a mess, so why should HD not also be a mess in this regard. I appreciate the difficulties you face here, Ryan. That said, I also vote #3

This feature wasn't there 3 months ago – InfernalMachine, on June 01, 2008 18:44

I like this idea. But I was thinking that rather than just being an extension of the leaderboards or the badges/awards, it could be a little like the Guinness Book of Records. So it's not just a list of names, but questions as well. Spitzer would be there, the top 5 or 10 activity questions, the most creative question, even a wall of shame for the satyaki/blueseamiamis of this world. It would function as a best-of-Hubdub section, and should be as interesting as possible (it might be a great introduction to the joys of HubAddiction)

I like both parts of the idea, the bookmark and the alarm-type notification. Many's the time I have wished to review a question 15 minutes before it suspends, or tomorrow morning after I get some much-needed sleep. The possible uses for notifications are endless.