InfernalMachine's dashboard

Nigel,

Please allow me to express what I hope is a clear way of looking at this situation.

1. The cheater in question, though certainly not the only "gamer" on hubdub, has ignored you and all the other admins! You guys warned him and fined him, but that did not stop him and he mocked your fine and warning by continuing to cheat.
2. He entirely disrespected you admins' authority to control this site and keep it fair and fun for all players!
3. Taking away only his profits from theft thru gaming the market, you are telling him and all other cheaters that a crime "if even caught" will only cost you what you stole in the first place. That my friend is Not just and only sends a weak message. ...... So please, make the fine much stiffer then that. For you guys' authority and for the integrity of this site.

Now this one is to get into the nuts and bolts of your Newest Proposal:
You Said: First identified instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined 50% of worth.
I Say: Bravo! This is a great 1st punishment. I feel that it is strict enough that most players will not cheat for fear of them losing half their entire fortune.
I Suggest: That you take seriously this "Public Watch List" and actually literally make it public, kind of like the "Leaderboards" but in a separate area, so as not to make it an honor to make the "Most Wanted List, hehe." So please do not limit this "Public Watch List" to a tag beneath the cheaters' name, but actually make it a real list for the sake of the community as a whole.

You Said: Second instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined down to H$1,000.
I Say: Thank you for making this penalty system serious! I think that step two will discourage the more hard core cheaters among us because they may figure that if they can make $500,000 cheating, then hey if they get caught, they'll still have $250,000, and so this makes that idea totally irrelevant and should discourage the other 95% of cheaters.
I Suggest: Please extend the "Public Watch List" from 2 weeks for a 2nd offense, and extent it to 30 days! After all, we are dealing with a repeat offender and this offender has shown an unwillingness to stop, and thus I believe, must be watched for a longer period, so as not to just "let the dust settle" and do it again once the situation calms itself.
Also, I think in addition to it being 30 days on the Public Watch List, and funds taken down to $1,000, I think they should ALSO have their ability to create questions removed for AT LEAST 30 days. After all, why let them be priviledged to participate in the greater community if they are showing continual signs of dishonesty? So I'd sugest removing their creating questions ability for anywhere from 30 days to 6 months, and that decision could be decided by you admins on a case by case basis if you'd like.

You Said: Any subsequent instance will result in definite, permanent suspension of their account.
I Say: Let me buy you admins, all of ya, a round of drinks :-D ... I am pleased to see that you are taking this seriously.
I Suggest: That you also Block their IP so as to prevent that user from creating future accounts and thus it would also eliminate any DUPLICATE accounts that that user ALREADY has in existence. Know what I mean? After all, why would we expect them to only have 1 account? If they are in trouble AND if they are cheating, like Jenni and Rohan spotted, they are most likely using multiple accounts to cheat anyway.
So Ban that account, Ban their IP, Ban their email, Ban their "GetSatisfaction" account, and also Ban all of their other accounts AND create a banned user list alongside the Public Watch List. You know, kinda as a reminder to all current PWL listees that they better get back inline with the rest of the community. And as a user pointed out, this does not stop someone with a dynamic IP, but it is the best I think we can do. And I strongly encourage you guys to do this.

Welp, thank you Nigel for communicating with us. I know that you guys DO care about hubdub, that is why you all work so hard for us members and try your best to keep this place cranking.
I have not been happy to go on strike, as I am disgusted that it ever got this far, but we in the community who have striked and those who haven't but that have expressed anger, distrust, dismay, confusion, etc., by this situation, we felt that this huge public outcry was our only hope of regaining the integrity of the game and regaining our passion for hubdub!
I sincerely hope that you admins do not have bad feelings towards us strikers/protestors, as we undoubtedly got angry yes, but we never meant it towards you guys personally! We were outraged that our concerns were being "ignored" while Satyaki was going around mouthin' at us while you admins sat quiet.
Well, turns out you guys were sleeping, hehehehe, so our bad here in America for that, but please understand that we felt we HAD to cause this huge stink publicly, otherwise, justice was never going to be met.
We felt this way because Satyaki had been cheating for weeks and nothing was publicly or quite frankly, truly being done to stop him. This again is why we believe that a gamer should have his question creating ability taken away! That way a cheater loses more then just time spent and money on hand, but even the ability to truly be an active member of this society as a whole, even if only temporary.

I know that I do not have all the answers and some users or admins may disagree with my "suggestions" however, you admins have asked us to participate in the ongoing evolution of this fantastic and addicting site, and for that I PRAISE YOU GUYS, because nearly no other place actually gives a rats rear end about the members' opinions and concerns!
You admins have always been lightning quick to respond to all my emails and comments and requests, then when this situation occurred, many of us users felt that when the chips were down, all of a sudden you guys stopped listening to us, and that added to our outrage.

I appreciate you admins sooooooo much, I truly do! I have loved this site since day one of my participation (Jan. 29th) and again, I want to hug you all for allowing me to have a part in determining the destiny of this site! That is sooooo cool and so much fun! It's like we are a part of hubdub even though we are on another continent!

You guys and gals made this site possible, you keep it fun and active, and we just want to make sure that it stays that way going forward. It would be a terrible tragedy to lose my #1 site on the world wide web! I come here for hours every day, it is my most visited site!

So you guys truly rock! We love you guys here in America! We thank you all for allowing us to participate in this awesome game and in the evolution of the rules and procedures!

Thanks Again and I look forward soooo much to Monday, however, as a precaution and a loyalty to my fellow members of this ongoing protest, I Will Remain On Strike Until Monday, so as to do my part to insure as best I can from 10,000 miles away, that true justice is served, that the hubdub community is served rightly, that gamers past and present are punished accordingly, and that we can move on from this ugly episode and get back to why we all log in each day, Predicting The Outcome Of World News Events :-D

lucidstates (This user: Is On Strike)

P.S. Sorry to use up so much time, but I think I've now said my peace ... So until Monday, see ya later ;-D

I think that no matter what is decided, along with the email notification, a person caught gaming should lose the "privilege" of keeping predictions private (there could be a mechanism to restore it if there are no further complaints for 1-2 months).

Also, I think that the community should be able to know who is on the list (at infraction #1) and that this information not only be found on their personal page. This allows the community to assess subsequent behaviour.

It might also be an idea to prevent such "evil-doers" from wagering on their own questions.

This was asked by me in the first week of the public beta. There was much discussion then about gaming (unlike now ;-) ) and I was wondering, given that this was promoted as a prediction market site and that the cash-in button was explained as a means to pull out of a bet if it went south, whether day trading was acceptable. It's a classic noob question, and maybe some portion of the discussion here should be added to the advice for new players that's being constructed in another thread.

As for the holding onto bets when the odds drop, that's not always the best policy. If events occur in the real world that impact the question significantly (ie your prediction becomes impossible or extremely unlikely), then it's a good idea to pull out asap and maybe even bet on another option. Of course, if the market has changed solely because of the emotions or wishes of others (and not the facts or real-world probabilities), then it's often a good idea to hang on. In fact, if you're sure of your wager, it's a good thing that the price has dropped (although your net worth takes a temporary hit) because you can bet more on your prediction at a better price.

The one major difference between HD markets and financial markets is that a losing prediction is worth zero, not just "less", and has no opportunity to rise again, so as the deadline approaches the waiting it out idea becomes a lot like wondering if you should hold onto a stock that people are predicting will be worthless (ie the company goes bankrupt).

One added suggestion. If the game is to be played the next day, a settlement request could be made (or a flag) to keep it open, and if donal decides okay, it stays open instead of the usual void.

The reason for this is that, first, people who bet on the original may not know it has been voided. Secondly, there's the problem with the 12 hour cash-in delay on a replacement question.

It would be nice if people (who have wagered on a question) could be notified by email if an extension is given (or unsuspended or voided too)

Interesting. Thanks for the detailed answer.

Thanks. The problem I referred to above has been corrected.

I have a question though. I understand that the weekly gain overall is based on comparing the net worth on most recent Monday with the current net. But what does the weekly gain for individual categories actually compare. I assume it's comparing net weekly gain in the category against something. (Is it the amount wagered?)

Also, just out of interest, why are there minimum number of predictions to qualify for the various weekly gain leaderboards?

Thanks.

This is a great post. Informative, thought-provoking, and forward-looking. Off the top of my head, I agree with your ideas. If we need a one-size-fits-all solution, I'd say the choice is between voiding postponed games or having a "postponed" option among the choices. The former case is simpler. The latter case requires a meaningful assessment of how likely a postponement is (based on weather stats and whether or not the field is indoor or outdoor) for the initial odds - I predict that this would be messy, with initial odds likely to be questionable.

Impressive! Really opens up the game.

But can we trust the results? The current leader in quarterly gain has a gain 2.5 times greater than their net worth, which suggests a tabulation problem.

tee hee. i thought you were going to say "Roadies"

pretty good tips here so far.

try and set a percent gain per day you want to make. let's say 10%. so on day two you're hoping to have turned your initial $1000 into $1100. remember this is the sum of your cash and the current value of your predictions. it doesn't seem much, but after a month, a daily growth of 10% means you'll have about $20,000, and after two months $400,000.

if you make a wager, and the market turns against you because of events that change the likelihood of your winning, just cash-in the wager as soon as possible. cashing-in a losing wager may feel like a loss, but it doesn't change your net worth. it does, however, prevent your net worth from dropping more.

don't worry if you make incorrect predictions. everyone does. the future is unknown, all you're trying to do is to be right a little more often than you're wrong

Yes, what a mess, for what looked to be a straightforward set of questions. At least we're forewarned for the election.