Jerry's Just Trolling's dashboard

Jerry's Just Trolling replied on April 05, 2008 02:59 to the problem "I am on STRIKE" in Hubdub:

I don't consider user satyaki competition in any form.
I get a strange smirk on my face when I see him on the leaderboards.
He is a cheat. He readily admitted it. He continues to do so after promising not to do so. He flaunts it in our faces.

I promised jenniandboys that I would refrain from any further comments on the issue within the hubdub comment boards. I agree that to escalate to a mini-war (on hubdub.com) will do the site more harm than good.

But I also believe that 'punishing' satyaki so minimally does reflect poorly on all of us. And that is bothering me.

Jerry's Just Trolling started following the problem "I am on STRIKE" in Hubdub.

Jerry's Just Trolling replied on April 03, 2008 14:32 to the question "Am I gaming the system?" in Hubdub:

A great thread. I'm in total agreement that buying and selling prior to settlement is not "gaming" the system.

Hubdub's marketplaces will penalize you appropriately, while still allowing a well placed wager to make money for it's owner.

When buying or selling, you are always paying the market some percentage points. (The premium you pay for a $H100 wager is greater than that of a $H20 wager.) When you sell a position, you are selling at the rate the market will pay, not exactly the true current value of your position. (When you sell a $H100 position, your sell percentage is lower than when you sell a $H20 position.)

I believe the market mechanics are just fine.

Destry's reply to "The Golden Rules for successfully playing the HUBDUB" was just promoted to the most useful! Jerry's Just Trolling and 2 other people think it's one of the best replies.

I think the first thing to understand is that there is no magic rule, or trick to making money. What a person notices who sees those moving up and down the leaderboards, is that those who spend time on the site, looking at questions, researching news, and making predictions based on informed knowledge tend to do better. As was said above, watching markets move to get a feel of the flow can really help. Remember as more and more people read these posts and move a market the same way, the less likely it will be to make money using those methods.
I do agree with meanderingsearch, I usually put predictions public that I want others to wager on the same direction I am to push the market in that direction. Sometimes I will show a prediction to settle a dispute about putting money where opinion is, but for the most part I keep my predictions hidden.
I like to keep a watch on new questions, usually can get good odds on a new market. Only downside is waiting the 12 hours before being able to cash out. I also like to watch questions in which alot of action is moving the markets, there ususally is chance to either make some quick cash profits, or get in a good long term position.
I agree with those above that playing long term markets (those lasting more than 3 months) are generally a big waste of cash. While you might get decent odds, the position will slowly move and your money be tied up too long.
My closing point is to have fun. Comment on questions, get involved and then regardless of profit or loss you will at least get a feeling of satisfaction..

Jerry's Just Trolling replied on March 24, 2008 13:16 to the discussion "The Golden Rules for successfully playing the HUBDUB" in Hubdub:

meanderingsearcher has hit the proverbial 'nail on the head'.
After all, this is why we are all here.
thx meandering.

meanderingsearcher's reply to "The Golden Rules for successfully playing the HUBDUB" was just promoted to the most useful! Jerry's Just Trolling and 3 other people think it's one of the best replies.

bet on what you know, enjoy the witty comments, don't worry what anybody thinks and/or has to say, everyone plays for a different reason so be true to yourself and to your own personal satisfaction

Jerry's Just Trolling marked one of kruijs' replies in Hubdub as useful. kruijs replied to the discussion "The Golden Rules for successfully playing the HUBDUB".

Jerry's Just Trolling marked one of kruijs' replies in Hubdub as useful. kruijs replied to the discussion "The Golden Rules for successfully playing the HUBDUB".

Jerry's Just Trolling replied on March 23, 2008 15:50 to the discussion "The Golden Rules for successfully playing the HUBDUB" in Hubdub:

Make up at least two add'l userid's, and manipulate the market to your advantage. ;)

ROFL

Jerry's Just Trolling replied on March 23, 2008 02:26 to the discussion "The Golden Rules for successfully playing the HUBDUB" in Hubdub:

While there are ways to make $H on both sides of a market, if it is a volatile market (like markets about the DOW, NASDAQ, etc), it is preferable to find a market where you feel confident of the outcome, and place wagers on that choice.

If your net worth is below $H3k, ...

You should not take positions for over $H100. (you're not getting the best returns because you end up moving the market up prior to your purchase.)
You would do much better making multiple $H20 or $H50 even though it may take more work and more time.
You need to shop around for a market where your prediction is below 40%, or preferably lower. (Buy low, sell high, applies here).
You want to avoid long-term predictions. You want your $H to churn, constantly making you money.
You want to cash out your position if it reaches 95% or more, and still has time before settlement. You can put your money back to work.
Avoid markets where your prediction has already hit 95%, even if it will close in a few days. You can make more profit on some other market by that time.
Do not place your wagers when your predictions are at or above 50%. While you may be sure of the outcome, again, your return is not agressive. Take a position when the percentage of your choice is below 40% (preferably less) in order to get a better return. In truth, if you want to grow rapidly, you need to shop around a bit, a take positions where your choice is below 20%. Then, other Hubdubbers who feel the same, will drive your 20% placement up to 50% or better. At this point, you've made 30%+ on your position. If the event is not going to be settled for some time, cash out your position and go shopping again.

Jerry's Just Trolling replied on March 21, 2008 22:33 to the idea "Leaderboards: the new solution" in Hubdub:

I think that any banking institution should require that $H deposits (or bonds) remain commited for periods of at least a quarter, commensurate with the interest rate to be expected. Large, long-term $H investments should attract a higher interest rate. Smaller, short-term investments, would receive a lower interest rate. Anyone, rich or poor alike could take advantage of the bank. Some are borrowers, some are lenders. The Bank takes it vig, ensuring that some $H is removed from the market. (Those funds can be used to pay Hubdub staff.)

If an investor loses all of their in-play $H, they, like anybody else, can apply for a loan from the Bank. However, unless you have funds deposited, the max amount you may borrow is (insert appropriate figure here). If a Hubdubber has funds deposited, they may take an interest-bearing loan up to half of their deposited funds, up to a maximum of $H20K.

The above $H are only examples. The community must decide if:
a) the Bank is appropriate
b) what are the rules.

Jerry's Just Trolling replied on March 21, 2008 14:47 to the discussion "Tits!" in Hubdub:

There are many slang words that could offend, but ARE in the public lexicon of english slang words. Such as Ass, Prick, Suck, etc. as in : He's such as ass. Oh, that sucks! Stupid Prick!

I've heard these words used during CNN newscast.

Jerry's Just Trolling started following the idea "Leaderboards: the new solution" in Hubdub.

Jerry's Just Trolling replied on March 21, 2008 14:38 to the idea "Leaderboards: the new solution" in Hubdub:

I like the Royal Bank of Hubdub, the potential tax scheme (Hubdub admins can use those $H to pay for staff ;p ), I like keeping my $H for now, but can sense that some rescaling will be necessary in the future (which I fully support). I think that SD's thoughtful approach to the mechanics of the rescaling makes a lot of sense.

I'd pay good $H for some pimping icons or other stuff. I wouldn't mind playing at a lower tier if those around me 'see my stuff' :)

I'd enjoy helping middle tier hubdubbers learn to reach for the heights. Kind of like the Warren Buffet of Hubdub, but not so filthy rich.

Now that's SATISFACTION! Thanks Hubdubbers for your zeal!

Jerry's Just Trolling replied on March 21, 2008 00:18 to the discussion "Leaderboard end-of-quarter changes" in Hubdub:

I could go with anAverageAmerican's idea as well. I give it a 6.
I can fully appreciate destry's comments as well.
Dipping into 'saved' funds does not sound like a good idea. Heck, I'd simply get all (or a large part) of my cash back and viola! I'm back on top.

The long-term holdings are the real stickler here I think. Rescaling every quarter makes long-term markets uninteresting at best, totally foolish at worst.

Jerry's Just Trolling replied on March 20, 2008 22:20 to the discussion "Leaderboard end-of-quarter changes" in Hubdub:

sry, <$H1

Jerry's Just Trolling replied on March 20, 2008 22:19 to the discussion "Leaderboard end-of-quarter changes" in Hubdub:

yes, as kruijs. Once an individual prediction is made, it can be rescaled at the next qtr-close. After that, it can not be rescaled again, and again, until it's value is >$H1.

Jerry's Just Trolling replied on March 20, 2008 21:54 to the discussion "Leaderboard end-of-quarter changes" in Hubdub:

I am in complete agreement with the 'overall' plan.

If a guarantee is made that once a position is rescaled, it will not be rescaled again, then I vote 8. If not, then I must vote 4.
.

Jerry's Just Trolling replied on March 20, 2008 19:57 to the discussion "Leaderboard end-of-quarter changes" in Hubdub:

I like the idea of quarterly scaling. It opens up the competition to every hubdubber, rich and not so rich. I like the idea of scaling tiers, so I don't have to fall too far down. However, I'd also vote for an across-the-board scaling back to $H1k.

I like even better the concept of competitive tiers, where it would be a challenge to move from one tier-group to the next. You would be promoted/demoted by your quarter end results. Each tier having their own leaderboard.

But I just got to have the "once a position is scaled, that position never gets scaled again option.", for the reasons stated above.

Jerry's Just Trolling replied on March 20, 2008 18:25 to the discussion "Leaderboard end-of-quarter changes" in Hubdub:

But then, long-term predictions continually lose their value throughout the life of the prediction. What sense would it make then, for anybody to place any wager on a market that might not get settled for years to come.

First wager = $H100.

After first quarter, scaled to $H20 (optimistic)
next qtr: $H5
next qtr: $H1
next qtr: 'just cash out'

I would not reinforce the wager regardless of my strong feelings under this scenario.

I understand that not rescaling causes the same problem down the road, but some consideration needs to be made or nobody will wager on the long-term markets.