Steph's dashboard

Steph replied on February 28, 2008 06:24 to the discussion "hubdub addiction" in Hubdub:

Hi. My name is Steph. And I'm a Hubdubaholic.

I can't remember exactly how it started. Was it a Digg? Techdirt? Slashdot?

All the sites and blogs that I used to visit, I don't visit anymore.

As soon as I wake, I Hubdub. Fresh out the shower? I Hubdub. As soon as I get into the office? Hubdub. My daily commute? Leave home shortly before the DAX closes, arrive at work before the DOW opens, leave work after the DOW closes, and make it home before the reality shows and evening news shows. And, after dinner? I read up on all of the new Hubdub questions, just because I don't want to miss anything.

Sure, there were times when I went overboard. I bet way too much, and lost way too much in a single day. I'd place a few stupid bets: H$10K on the market closing up when it was down 100 pts 1 minute before close, just because the percentages were good. I'd lose way too much, and I'd tell myself that I would never Hubdub again. But I'd always come back for more. Always.

Nothing beats the thrill of winning a prediction. Or, of climbing the leaderboard. Or, of knowing that I was right when others were wrong.

If there's a cure for this, I don't want it.

Steph replied on February 25, 2008 16:13 to the question "Wrong settlement of the question Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average OPEN higher or lower on Feb 25 than the 12,381.02 it closed at on Feb 22? http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average_OPEN_higher_or_lower_on_Feb_25_than_the_1238102_it_closed_at_on_Feb_22_3026/view The Dow opened LOWER than the previous close and so is the right answer. Need to be fixed." in Hubdub:

Thanks Tom!

Did the losers get their money taken away that they incorrectly won? Also, what caused the incorrect settlement?

Steph replied on February 25, 2008 16:02 to the question "Wrong settlement of the question Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average OPEN higher or lower on Feb 25 than the 12,381.02 it closed at on Feb 22? http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average_OPEN_higher_or_lower_on_Feb_25_than_the_1238102_it_closed_at_on_Feb_22_3026/view The Dow opened LOWER than the previous close and so is the right answer. Need to be fixed." in Hubdub:

Thanks Tom.

Steph replied on February 25, 2008 15:53 to the question "Wrong settlement of the question Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average OPEN higher or lower on Feb 25 than the 12,381.02 it closed at on Feb 22? http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average_OPEN_higher_or_lower_on_Feb_25_than_the_1238102_it_closed_at_on_Feb_22_3026/view The Dow opened LOWER than the previous close and so is the right answer. Need to be fixed." in Hubdub:

Could the HD Admins please post their sources on this? I'm not finding any source that states a higher opening.

Anyone????

Steph started following the question "Wrong settlement of the question Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average OPEN higher or lower on Feb 25 than the 12,381.02 it closed at on Feb 22? http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average_OPEN_higher_or_lower_on_Feb_25_than_the_1238102_it_closed_at_on_Feb_22_3026/view The Dow opened LOWER than the previous close and so is the right answer. Need to be fixed." in Hubdub.

Steph replied on February 25, 2008 15:49 to the question "Wrong settlement of the question Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average OPEN higher or lower on Feb 25 than the 12,381.02 it closed at on Feb 22? http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average_OPEN_higher_or_lower_on_Feb_25_than_the_1238102_it_closed_at_on_Feb_22_3026/view The Dow opened LOWER than the previous close and so is the right answer. Need to be fixed." in Hubdub:

Please correct this settlement. The several links show that the market opened down at 12,380.77.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=.DJI

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5eDJ...

Steph replied on February 20, 2008 08:08 to the problem "Seeking repeal for the 50% penalty." in Hubdub:

I'm awake. I'm waiting for the Hawaii results in the Dem brawl.

Here's my response to

"...if someone else fails to bet on it or if it isn't voided in 12 hours it is a lapse on your side and it isnt my fault..."

When I see a question with outrageous odds that I know is a gaming attempt and that will probably be voided, I avoid placing any wagers on this type of question. Two reasons: Why waste my money by letting it get tied up in a question that will just be voided, and why risk giving HD admins the impression that I'm in on the gaming?

I imagine that most users agree, thus the low activity on your gamed questions.

Plus, we all know that HD admins don't review each new question, and that they sometimes don't settle questions immediately after the settlement date due to time zone differences. Your plea is confirming that you have taken advantage of both of these facts.

I think HD's decision is fair. Thanks for catching this, Nigel!

Steph replied on February 20, 2008 00:58 to the problem "Settlement resolution: washington temp" in Hubdub:

50 "Break into" 50.

50.1 "breaks" 50

The phrase "break into" was not used in the question, thus we are looking for anything about 50 to "break" 50.

N'est–ce pas?

Sounds like we are all in agreement here.

Steph replied on February 20, 2008 00:40 to the problem "Settlement resolution: washington temp" in Hubdub:

The American Heritage Dictionary includes the following definition for "break"

To force one's way out of; escape from: break jail.

So, to "break 50 degrees" would mean for the temperature to go above 50 degrees.

50 wouldn't be a break, that would be a "meet" or "reach".

Steph replied on February 15, 2008 02:53 to the idea "The Royal Bank Of HubDub" in Hubdub:

Are you referring to the DOW questions with the long math problems? (Twice the NASDAQ plus twice the S&P divided by half the DOW multiplied by a third of the DAX divided by 5 times the delegates....)

Wow, I was wondering how those were going. Especially when I was losing so much on the DOW questions today.

Ditto on watching the HD markets vs IRL. And ditto on dumping tons of H$ on an obvious answer. Seems like I had someone betting against me too today on a question that I dumped tons of cash into.

And, who was it that was counter-bidding you? I'm just curious... = )

Steph replied on February 15, 2008 00:02 to the idea "The Royal Bank Of HubDub" in Hubdub:

Infernal, you are such a market killer! hehe!

I viewed this topic thinking that you were going to give up the goods on how you made it to H$150K so fast! How'd you do it?

Steph replied on February 14, 2008 02:50 to the idea "HubDub Topic questions and the Leaderboard update mechanism" in Hubdub:

H$100K! Congrats!

Steph replied on February 10, 2008 15:58 to the idea "Customizable question filtering would be nice" in Hubdub:

Voting questions off? This would potentially allow players to game the system more.

If 100 people are bound to lose money on a question that has been suspended due to a pending settlement, and they can't cash in because the "cash in loophole" has been corrected, they can still get an easy out by voting the question off.

Steph replied on February 10, 2008 15:48 to the question "Help: Rules and common (mis)understandings" in Hubdub:

I don't like all of the "bonus rewards" programs that players are pushing, including the one above. I've seen suggestions for giving bonuses to question creators, bonuses for questions with the most activity, etc....

These bonus programs would allow the player that creates 100 bad questions that draw 2 predictions each to be better rewarded than someone that creates one good question that draws 150 predictions.

This potentially changes the game to "whoever creates the most questions wins". Not good.

Steph replied on February 09, 2008 20:13 to the question "Help: Rules and common (mis)understandings" in Hubdub:

Dow questions.

Please leave the questions open while the markets are open, and close the questions when the markets are closed, as is being done currently.

With the Dow questions open for the duration, players that buy in to an obvious answer by the close of the day will have far lesser returns than someone that buys into the winning answer at the beginning of the day.

Usually, the answers are around 50 - 50 at the beginning of the day, and they change to 97-3 in favor of the winning answer at the end of the day. My early 50% wager will return much more than a players late 97% answer. Thus, the market works!

Also, I enjoy buying in low when players panic during the day! = )

Steph replied on February 09, 2008 19:49 to the question "Should Hubdub players be allowed to "hide" their predictions by making them private? What is the rational for this feature?" in Hubdub:

I also want to add: Please do not show all of the past predictions for players. I make predictions all the time, just to change my mind and pull out, and then I make the prediction again, just to pull out again.....loop that tens of times and you have my past predictions.

I don't know how anyone could find that information useful.

Steph replied on February 09, 2008 19:40 to the idea "Server outage: How to deal with open predictions?" in Hubdub:

I'm a web developer too! *waving to anaverageamerican*

I think betting for all questions, not just the Dow questions, would go a lot smoother if you merge the functionality of the "How certain are you" page with the main question page.

Place a wage predictor next to each answer that includes an open text box. Players type the desired wage into the text box. Players then click a "Price" button to view the price and possible winnings for their wagers. Then players click an "OK" type of button to confirm the wage.

Changes along these lines won't help you with your server problems (good luck with that), but it will speed up the betting process and could possible cut down on the number of hits to your servers.

I didn't bet on Monday's Dow question.

Steph replied on February 09, 2008 19:24 to the question "New rule?" in Hubdub:

Rohan, you're such a high roller!

I'd like to know why this limit was chosen, and I think that the H$10K limit should be removed. I'd love for some of the players on the leader board to "bet the whole house" and lose!

Steph replied on February 09, 2008 19:20 to the question "Should Hubdub players be allowed to "hide" their predictions by making them private? What is the rational for this feature?" in Hubdub:

Instead of looking at player profiles, I rely on common knowledge, common sense, stats, CNN and Google for the info I need to make predictions. I agree that publicizing predictions will lead to a "follow-the-leader" game.

Category editors, and question creators, shouldn't necessarily have their predictions shown, at risk of "driving the market" based on their prediction. If a question creator creates a question on a topic that most players know nothing about, and you can see how the creator placed his wage, players are more likely to place the same wage.

Players will no longer be predicting news outcomes, instead they will be predicting the accuracy of certain players wages.

Get it?

Let players continue to have a choice between what is shown and what is not shown in their profiles.

Steph replied on February 09, 2008 19:01 to the idea "Product development: Power user vetting and leaderboards" in Hubdub:

What constitutes a power user? I'd like to be in that group.

Currently, whenever I come across a question that needs to be voided, I submit a settlement request and I explain the reason why the question should be voided. I also post my concerns in the comments section. I've noticed that most of my void requests are handled quite quickly.

Thanks guys!