tarheelv's dashboard

quorny replied on April 05, 2008 13:59 to the problem "Whats going on, how are new members making a fortune over night? This feels wrong!" in Hubdub:

Yeah I don't really feel like sticking around if there are going to be cheaters..what's the point

Markov replied on April 05, 2008 05:39 to the problem "Whats going on, how are new members making a fortune over night? This feels wrong!" in Hubdub:

It seems many people are perplexed by some of the fantastic numbers that have been showing up on the leaderboards. I am one of them. In response to what is beginning to become a clear problem, both perceptually and practically, I have a suggestion for the admins:

Fast, clear, full public disclosure of the details of the gaming problem followed by decisive and retroactive action.

A sense of fairness must be regained and retained and the only way to do that is to put a hard stop to serial gamers and make sure all profits obtained through gaming are revoked so as to avoid rewarding cheaters for their transgressions. This means taking a good hard look at the full wagering history of suspect accounts and then doing something about it when something (a pattern as opposed to a single questionable instance) is found.

InfernalMachine replied on April 03, 2008 16:07 to the question "Am I gaming the system?" in Hubdub:

This was asked by me in the first week of the public beta. There was much discussion then about gaming (unlike now ;-) ) and I was wondering, given that this was promoted as a prediction market site and that the cash-in button was explained as a means to pull out of a bet if it went south, whether day trading was acceptable. It's a classic noob question, and maybe some portion of the discussion here should be added to the advice for new players that's being constructed in another thread.

As for the holding onto bets when the odds drop, that's not always the best policy. If events occur in the real world that impact the question significantly (ie your prediction becomes impossible or extremely unlikely), then it's a good idea to pull out asap and maybe even bet on another option. Of course, if the market has changed solely because of the emotions or wishes of others (and not the facts or real-world probabilities), then it's often a good idea to hang on. In fact, if you're sure of your wager, it's a good thing that the price has dropped (although your net worth takes a temporary hit) because you can bet more on your prediction at a better price.

The one major difference between HD markets and financial markets is that a losing prediction is worth zero, not just "less", and has no opportunity to rise again, so as the deadline approaches the waiting it out idea becomes a lot like wondering if you should hold onto a stock that people are predicting will be worthless (ie the company goes bankrupt).

Destry replied on April 03, 2008 16:05 to the question "Am I gaming the system?" in Hubdub:

I would agree completely that youare just successfully playing the markets. And just because it seems obvious to you, doesn't mean that everyone does it. Some people aren't comfortable trading that much, I love to trade a postion. A person can make alot of money by wagering on a position that don't think will be the outcome if they can get in at low enough of a percentage and get out before question is settled. I would say on a majority of the sports questions I try to get in and out of a market before the event. If I can wager $100 and get 40 or 50 bucks in profit, I will take that even if I could win a few hundred, because i could lose the original 100. So I like to make the guaranteed money.
I know for me gaming of the site is defined as purposely creating a question with lower odds than common sense would suggest, then wagering on that position to guarantee those profits. For example you take a question in which the odds should be 90-10 like will a certain baseball team score 3 runs in the first inning, but you set the odds at 60-40. Then you wager on the question, when the market forces move the question to a reasonable level of 90-10 or 95-5, then they cash in, profiting from incorrect starting odds. It is easier to do when you pick a sport that isn't as well known. It would be like starting the odds at 50-50 that the Patriots would beat the Dolphins last year. Obviously one team should be favored more like 90-10.

Jerry's Just Trolling replied on April 03, 2008 14:32 to the question "Am I gaming the system?" in Hubdub:

A great thread. I'm in total agreement that buying and selling prior to settlement is not "gaming" the system.

Hubdub's marketplaces will penalize you appropriately, while still allowing a well placed wager to make money for it's owner.

When buying or selling, you are always paying the market some percentage points. (The premium you pay for a $H100 wager is greater than that of a $H20 wager.) When you sell a position, you are selling at the rate the market will pay, not exactly the true current value of your position. (When you sell a $H100 position, your sell percentage is lower than when you sell a $H20 position.)

I believe the market mechanics are just fine.

anaverageamerican replied on April 01, 2008 22:20 to the question "Am I gaming the system?" in Hubdub:

InfernalMachine,

I just checked and you have around H$436,000. Pretty good for playing only, "a little less than a week" 8^)

Seriously, I don't think Hubdub sees itself as a site which only allows users to predict the news and wait for settlement ... it's a news prediction market. If you weren't allowed to cash-in early it really wouldn't be a market at all.

bcguelph,

I think your final statement belongs in this thread:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/top...
It's a cardinal rule of investing to not bail out in bear markets, but to try and wait them out ... or if you can buy while everything is discounted.

bcguelph replied on April 01, 2008 17:43 to the question "Am I gaming the system?" in Hubdub:

I am in general agreement. There is nothing wrong with buying a position because you think it appears weak (valued too low) and then selling it once you think it is over-valued.

I have made most of my H$ buying and selling on the politic questions (US election almost exclusively) and NONE of them have been settled. Yesterday I bought McCain at 25% (Presidential question) he went up to 37% and I sold it.

The media stories on Hubdub imply that you are to bet on how you think story will "end". Betting in the way you are right now actually takes more insight than predicting the outcome - you are determining how likely OTHERS will view the question and outcome, and you are betting on what they will do. Takes more insight, I think.

Finally, when I do purchase a position, and then it goes down, I just sit on it until it is settled.

Nigel Eccles replied on February 15, 2008 11:00 to the question "Have we become too concerned about gaming ?" in Hubdub:

Just to follow up on the gamers discussion. Keeping Hubdub really challenging is one of our top priorities. If there is a means to game your way to the top of the leader board then that destroys the challenge and makes the site dull.

Over the past couple of weeks we have really tightened the system to reduce gaming (some of you will remember when you could create a 50/50 question at 1% odds, bet big on the Yes and then cash out before the void). There are still a few loop holes in the system that we are working on.
We've really focused on fixing the system rather than trying to catch and punish individual gamers (although we have done that as well).

I guess you could compare us to a ship that went to sea with a few holes in the hull. The choice is to either patch up the ship or to bail the water. We've chosen to primarily focus on patching up the ship.

While we are hesitant about resetting the leaderboard, what we do want to do is to re-focus the leader boards on weekly and monthly performance therefore users that have gained massive wealth (by fair means or foul) have no great advantage. In fact some of you have noted that it can be challenging to get a high % growth if you have a lot of cash.

Destry replied on February 15, 2008 05:34 to the idea "Question settlement escalation" in Hubdub:

I also feel the staff at hubdub is doing an amazing job. I think the standard default position is that if a question is in doubt and there is no clear way to settle, just void question and return wagers. I don't wager on questions that I don't feel can be settled clearly. I think if more people read settlement details, and questions were voided if there was a potential question then that would force people making questions to be clearer. I think if a question is flagged and then suspended until it can be reviewed that would help with settlement issue.
I would volunteer to review questions that were flagged and agree not to wager on those questions I reviewed. That has been my suggestion for a group of power users that had ability to review questions, suspend questions, and send those that were still questionable to the category editors, not only could we build a better community, we each would feel more comfortable wagering on questions.
We even could have all new questions in a suspend status until the power users could review and a consensus could be reached to open question to wagering.

anaverageamerican replied on February 15, 2008 04:58 to the idea "Question settlement escalation" in Hubdub:

Destry,

If all the questions on Hubdub were perfectly clear I would agree with you, but as it stands now things are not always so clear. Given the current state of Hubdub, I can't conceive of a better method of resolving settlement disputes than community input and a decision by the Hubdub team.

The team has been remarkably positive about allowing all profits on disputed questions, and resettling with those who lost in initial settlements so that they also receive profit.

Destry replied on February 15, 2008 01:28 to the idea "Question settlement escalation" in Hubdub:

Questions that do not have a clear settlement should be voided. There should be no question as to the events. In the event of a question that is unclear, simply void and state reason why, maybe include idea for way question could be worded more clearly. I think questions should be cut and dry, no room for arguement, in that case just void and move forward.

electroaffinity replied on February 14, 2008 22:29 to the question "Have we become too concerned about gaming ?" in Hubdub:

Nice to see calm discussions prevailing. A very mature bunch on Hubdub.

I have to agree with tarheelv that integrity is key. Gamers must be stopped or at least a serious attempt made to do so! The power users and other ideas should help, time will tell.

No matter what protective systems are put in place Obvious gamers to the system should be quickly brought to justice by the Hubdub team. It is crucial to the integrity of the game to punish obvious cheaters quickly and harshly.

I have never received a clear answer as to why the Hubdub team will not drop the hammer on cheaters, is it a legal question? I doubt this site will ever be allowed to use real money, with real payouts so legal issues should not matter. Is it an ethical question? Is it a disagreement between Hubdubs creators?

Maybe we will never know.

Although I have helped to conceive some of the new rules that have been put in place and I am constantly "challenging" the system, I think it is important to Hubdub that we do not get to bogged down with rules etcetera. As I have stated before the Hubdub team needs to worry most about how to make money or this site will not last.

Ferdinand replied on February 14, 2008 21:45 to the question "Have we become too concerned about gaming ?" in Hubdub:

Imho good ideas. I particularly like the power user idea, because it could significantly reduce duplicat markets. Which in turn would create more volume in the fewer existing markets, which would make gambling less attractive.

Another couple of ideas (already brought foreward elsewhere):
- tax the cash with e.g. 1% per day
- a "Tobin tax" of .1 to 1% on all transactions

Golwar replied on February 14, 2008 17:47 to the question "Have we become too concerned about gaming ?" in Hubdub:

1. jersjusttrolling hd$323,753
2. pics4d hd$280,417

If you guys wouldn't be so friendly I'd have left hubdub meanwhile.
Well, the truth is that I abandoned playing anyways, but I'll keep an eye on the development here ;)

shadowfax replied on February 14, 2008 17:43 to the question "Have we become too concerned about gaming ?" in Hubdub:

I really appreciate the dialog taking place here.
To me it is interesting, engaging, lively and fun.
Looking forward to a great rollout of hubdub2 for
grins and hopefully hucks ;-)

Golwar replied on February 14, 2008 11:15 to the question "Have we become too concerned about gaming ?" in Hubdub:

No, that wasn't related to wrong set settlement dates. I made some errors there, but donal corrected everything in time.

It's obvious that those question have been manipulated pre-match and all of them at the same time and with the same strategy.

Nigel Eccles replied on February 14, 2008 10:18 to the question "Have we become too concerned about gaming ?" in Hubdub:

Hi Golwar,

I think these were some of the markets that suspended after the kick-off. It is fair to say that we've been fairly overwhelmed in the sport category. It generates a huge number of short term markets (although the nice thing is that settlement is generally very clear).

This week we are looking at how we should re-deploy our resources to better support the sports markets. Additionally, I would be keen to offer more in-running events (that is advertised in-running events rather than accidental!)

Hopefully you will see an improvement over the next week.

Golwar replied on February 13, 2008 19:53 to the question "Have we become too concerned about gaming ?" in Hubdub:

Oh whow, well that was something that happened with my UEFA Cup questions.

http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/UEFA_C...
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/UEFA_C...
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/UEFA_C...

Those are just examples how the markets have been manipulated. I was lucky ( seems like a dozen others on the leadersboard ), recognized what happened and took advantage ( went from 25k to 40k ).

I doubt that it's necessary to mention how annoying this is. I invested quite some time in good predictions and playing the game the way it was meant to be. But neither is there anything like a real developing poll / market, nor is it entertaining to match with the elite as there isn't any real elite.

So this was probably my last day at hubdub. I don't see a point in creating questions or in evaluating probabilities when all that really matters is the cash in button at the right time.

electroaffinity replied on February 13, 2008 03:42 to the idea "Product development: Power user vetting and leaderboards" in Hubdub:

"I think all predictions should be confidential until they have settled. After settlement they should become public so users who suspect cheating can have access to the evidence."

As I stated earlier anaverageamericans idea is excellent. Transparency is the key, but I think I have said that before. LOL

anaverageamerican replied on February 13, 2008 03:37 to the idea "Product development: Power user vetting and leaderboards" in Hubdub:

I want to clarify that I was specifically recommending that Hubdub not prohibit multiple accounts using the same IP address, not that they make no attempt to prevent cheating. My wild-ass guess as to the number of legitimate multiple accounts using the same IP vs. cheaters would be 90%+. Using multiple accounts at the same IP is too easy to detect if you _are_ cheating, and it's easy to spoof an IP or to have internet access through a multiple IP's if you're serious about cheating.

As I recommended on a separate thread, I think all predictions should be confidential until they have settled. After settlement they should become public so users who suspect cheating can have access to the evidence.

Having said all of that, I do not think Hubdub will be able to police serious cheaters, and I think that at this early stage in the site's development it is in the interest of the Hubdub team to err on the side of allowing cheating if they cannot prevent it. In my opinion the site will lose more users as a result of Draconian rules than as a result of cheaters reaching the top of the leaderboard.

And the game the site creators are in is all about having users, and not registrations, but users who log on every day and participate, Build the community and the advertisers will come!