RyanJ's dashboard

TheDoctor replied on April 09, 2008 16:14 to the discussion "Should this market be settled? (Politics)" in Hubdub:

No more response have come in as of yet. Therefore I'm settling the market.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

TheDoctor replied on April 09, 2008 15:55 to the problem "Terrorism" in Hubdub:

The problem here is that if the news didn't report it as an act of terrorism, but some people on the site have an opinion of terrorism as one thing while other view it as another thing.

I'd want to keep on the track of having nominal acts such as the NYC pipebomb (late at night, no casualties, just a loud bang) not seen as terrorism. This is because with this definition, acts like throwing acid on the Japanese whaling boats or political protests can be seen as terrorism. A possible definition would be

"The systematic use of violence to achieve political ends or premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by sub-national groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience."

It is such a subjective term that when we settle we will have people on each side arguing one way or the other. In my opinion the terrorist activity should be seen as violent in nature. The NYC "attack" was not really violent it was more or less protest.

The problem is that the definition I'm using in a way make all types of political violence terrorism, which isn't always the case.

TheDoctor set one of RyanJ's replies as an official response to "Should this market be settled? (Politics)" in Hubdub

TheDoctor replied on April 08, 2008 14:23 to the discussion "Should this market be settled? (Politics)" in Hubdub:

Thanks for all the responses I'm going to settle the market as a no. Remember a resettle is always possible if those rumors from Michigan come true.

Not only did I forget to link this discussion to the market, I also forgot to suspend the market. I blame the strike :-) Anyway though I'll suspend the market now, link to this discussion and if by the end of tonight nothing new has come about I'm settling.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

TheDoctor set one of RyanJ's replies as an official response to "Politics Market Settlement" in Hubdub

TheDoctor replied on April 08, 2008 14:14 to the problem "Politics Market Settlement" in Hubdub:

After reading through everyones responses, I've decided to settle the market as a no. Kellor has not resigned as of yet, and no information leads to the belief that he will resign due to the Iseman incident.

If he did resign it would be hard to confirm the reasoning behind the resignation and with the current disappearance of the Iseman issue, it is doubtful the subject story would be the cause of a resignation.

Thanks to everyone who responded to this thread, couldn't have gotten a settlement status without the users responses.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

TheDoctor reported a problem in Hubdub on April 07, 2008 17:52:

Politics Market Settlement

I've received a flag on a politics market here: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_N...

The flag states: "I appreciate it's important to wait on these matters, within reason, but this question is about the editor Bill Keller. Now, it may emerge that McCain was shagging the Barbie doll but either way there is no chance I can see that NY Times Editor Bill Kellor will be fired or forced to resign. If evidence emerged McCain was doing the mango tango with her, Bill Kellor keeps his job with kudos. As it stands now, Bill Kellor is in fact wrong and has kept his job. What is the likely outcome of this almost dead event? Bill Kellor keeps his job.

Bill Keller has recently been prattling on about his man in Zimbabwe. I think we can safely assume he indeed has kept his job. Can we close the question?"

So the question I have is how should we settle this market?

Because the question creator designed the market with the suspend date, it would be hard to change the date or settle now. But, with that said I'd agree that the market suspend date is just to far away for a resignation to be attributed to the Iseman affair. So please comment and give your view on the settlement of this market and hopefully we'll have a decision soon.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

TheDoctor started a conversation in Hubdub on April 06, 2008 02:17:

Should this market be settled? (Politics)

Well with all the "hubbub" going on regarding gaming, maybe a refreshing discussion about a quarrelsome market to settle will alleviate the stress. :-)

Problem: I have a market regarding a contest in Michigan to seat delegates at the Democratic convention located here:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_M...

I've received a settlement request for the market using this report as the settlement source:
http://www.newsmax.com/politics/prima...

Here's the problem, I'm a bit hesitant because newsmax says no primary or caucus will be held. But the market in question regards a "contest" which is such a bloody ambiguous word that I'm kicking myself for not clarifying the market earlier.

So should we settle it now, or wait? For all we know some weird cockamamie contest will be developed to settle the MIchigan debate, on the other hand it's very hard to tell what will happen with Michigan. So what's everyone else think?

Cheers,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

TheDoctor replied on April 05, 2008 00:49 to the problem "Suspend v Settlement Times" in Hubdub:

Really in depth discussions going on here guys and gals. Some very good examples of how to find a solution to this problem. I'll try to play devils advocate not on one side or another but in terms of settlement.

How do we deal with popular markets, for example lets say we get a market on "Who will be the next President?" But the suspend date for the market is September 25th (not Nov. 3), with a high volume market such as that would we really want such a early suspend date? If we go along with allowing early suspend dates how are settlers (Admins) allowed to edit suspend dates at all. Would it only be if the creator asks for a change?

Sorry for asking more questions :-)

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

TheDoctor replied on April 03, 2008 16:52 to the problem "Suspend v Settlement Times" in Hubdub:

In my mind having markets that suspend a week or two before the end date are not worth it. As has been stated they keep peoples money tied up, and don't let people play the market which in the end means that our ability to predict news correctly is hindered.

What these markets (early suspend dates) are good for is taking a picture of perceptions for a certain time period before the event. But that is no what we want to do, we want to predict the news. And either way these pictures of perceptions based on how the graph looks at a certain place in time are in markets without early suspend dates as evidenced by the changes you seen in market graphs over time.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

*This is not an official response, just my opinion on the matter.

TheDoctor set one of RyanJ's replies as an official response to "Market unsuspended (resumed) without notice." in Hubdub

TheDoctor replied on March 31, 2008 00:40 to the discussion "Market unsuspended (resumed) without notice." in Hubdub:

Hi newswrangler,

Apologies for never responding to your initial request. I must've just completely overlooked it when responding to your post. In terms of voiding the market I wouldn't void the market.

This is due to the fact that all the other markets which have been reopened before your suggestions never sent out automatic emails either. I'm thankful for the post you made, and I hope no hard feelings come about.

Due to your post we've added a new objective to the "list of things to do" (it's long, very long) and we will be able to improve the Hubdub experience because of this.

Sorry again for all the confusion surrounding this post and market in question, and especially to wrangler.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

TheDoctor replied on March 22, 2008 23:33 to the discussion "Settlement of Feb. 5 Markets (Please Discuss)" in Hubdub:

Ok, well we can finally put Super Tuesday behind us mostly... I've settled all the markets including the one mentioned by 4d.

I'll probably still get those shivers down my spine when I hear Super Tuesday though....

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

TheDoctor started a conversation in Hubdub on March 20, 2008 19:07:

Settlement of Feb. 5 Markets (Please Discuss)

Hi everyone,

After researching new information regarding the delegate counts from Feb. 5 on the democratic side. I've looked over and collected data concluding that with much certainty Obama did win the most delegates on Feb. 5.

But before I settle I want to explain how I've come to this conclusion and get some feedback. The sites used for the data on the Feb. 5 markets where:

http://elections.foxnews.com/states/
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914#MO

From these sites I got the current Feb. 5 totals gained. Now none of the totals were exactly the same. But all the totals gave Obama a lead. These are the totals:

Fox: Obama-830 Clinton-814
CNN Obama-846 Clinton-823
MSNBC Obama-846 Clinton-832

With the links provided I ask anyone willing to check me to do so. The question is now should we settle with that information? The markets that would need to be settled are:

http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Which_...
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Which_...

So what do people think?

Cheers,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

TheDoctor replied on March 19, 2008 18:37 to the discussion "Market unsuspended (resumed) without notice." in Hubdub:

Hi Truthwrangler,

Sorry for not leaving any clarification or comment. I'd been traveling from Edinburgh to New York and was rushing through things as quickly as possible on my way. I checked the polling website, saw nothing had been released and reopened.

I usually leave a comment or clarification but I just rushed through this one.
Apologies for the confusion caused.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

TheDoctor replied on March 19, 2008 12:23 to the question "How should markets regarding the Florida (re-do) primaries be settled?" in Hubdub:

Market is being settled with settlement sources stating Florida will not hold a new primary.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

TheDoctor asked a question in Hubdub on March 18, 2008 09:00:

How should markets regarding the Florida (re-do) primaries be settled?

Well it seems Florida is at again. It seems to cause trouble whenever it gets its hands in something. The problem faced right now is with the following markets:

http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_F...
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_a...
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_F...

Now whats happened is that the Florida DNC is stating that they will not hold any new primaries or caucuses. But even though they have stated they won't hold new ones, the DNC might attempt something, but very doubtful. Here are news stories related to the news story:

http://apnews.excite.com/article/2008...
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/03/...
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/1...

What I plan to do is settle the markets stating that no new primaries/caucuses will be held due to the Florida Democratic statement. How do people feel about that?

TheDoctor replied on March 16, 2008 22:11 to the question "Grand Theft Auto - How Much Violence is it Responsible For?" in Hubdub:

Since the market states "blamed for an act of violence the day of its release?" I think that if the news media the day of its release reports on violence caused by the game this should be settled as a yes.

Since GTA games have always been blamed for violence, this market would need to have 90% odds of yes, because after the games release at some point it will be blamed for some sort of violent crime.

Just my two cents.

Cheers,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

TheDoctor replied on March 15, 2008 12:27 to the discussion "Drowning in vice-presidential candidates!" in Hubdub:

Hi jenniandboys,

I see your point on the amount of VP markets. I know that the amount of VP markets means their is allot to look for and predict. But, if we look at this like looking at Financial markets, good markets will get good play and more money on them.

While similar markets will be not be predicted on by the user base, and therefore get sent to the back of the line. If a question is different then another, I don't want to void it. I'll let the market (User predictions) decide where the question will be seen or won't be seen.

I hope this makes my intention clear in how I deal with similar markets. After looking at the Hillary/Obama markets I think I can squeeze one out, which isn't popular and is a duplicate of another Hillary/Obama market. But if I do this we might get into some wishy washy ground on how we define duplicates. What does everyone else think?

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

TheDoctor replied on March 15, 2008 12:06 to the problem "Consistency in settlement" in Hubdub:

Hi Destry,

As we saw in the Spitzer market, taking the stricter and longer settlement process for markets 7 times out of 10 leads to more confusion, anger and disruption. I could wait to settle the market in question until the actual debate begins, but I can also settle the market now. Doing this I give users their HB$ money quicker and allow them to have more fun. In the end the debate could not happen but if it doesn't, all I have to do is resettle.

Truth be told I have settled earlier markets on debates differently, but since I pulled a "Spitzer" the more common sense approach makes more sense. We have to remember that a resettle is always possible and will cause less of an argument in the long run.

Settling markets in the politics category is very different than say, settling markets in the Sport category. Politics is based on spoken word and intentions, and political double speak can wreck havoc on any politics market! This is more of a learning process in that we have to try one thing, see what response we get, and then move on from there.

Regards and hope this helps clear things up,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor