RyanJ's dashboard

Market has been settled thanks for pointing it out.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

Hi Orlin,

Sorry for not getting back to you about this. I had seen your posts about the issue just lost track with all the "Spitzer" nonsense that occured.

I'm looking into this right now. What I'm thinking is that when I settled the first time with the wrong time it voided you prediction, so then when I resettled the market since your prediction was already canceled (voided) it didn't return funds.

Give me some time to make sure I'm right. If so I'll just have to top up peoples accounts who have the same problem.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

Hi 4d,

I'll take a look at the newest delegate counts from the major sources and get back to you.

Cheers,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

Yep seems like good implementation to increase publicity. I believe the development staff are working currently on some things similar to what you stated.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

Well guys and gals,

The mess these markets have turned into has been a learning experience to say the least. I've throughly enjoyed the "Will Ryan See The Light?" markets :-)

An obvious problem here is that worrying about all the little things which make a market go bust is not as productive as hoped. But the question is how do we move on in terms of rule amendments? Because most people lay on the side of a looser interpretation.

For the written rule amendments, I propose a definition of what resigning will be.

Resignation Market: The deciding factor for settlement will be when the intent to resign is announced.

* If as in the Larry Craig case that intent turns out to be false the market is resettled.

Although we can wait for the official formalization of resignation, as we've seen this only polarizes users and creates a unstable market. Resettlement is simple and less controversial. If Spitzer decides not to dropout all we have to do is resettle.

In relation to the markets about Spitzer:
What I'm going to do is settle the market now for the likelihood of a resignation next week. This is due to the official response stating that Spitzer had not "resigned."

Then I will void the market due to the confusion it has caused. So the people who lost out will get their funds back.

Lastly, I know this has been tedious to say the least, believe me 263 comments is allot of text. But at least we've been able to deal with the situation. Thanks to everyone who kept on getting their point across so we could come to a decision.

How does this sound to everyone?

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

P.S. Sex scandals were so very amusing before Hubdub!!.

I hope people didn't misunderstand, although we are having a high level focus on US Politics. All regions participate, we aren't trying to undercut those not from the US at all.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

Thanks for the response to my question guys. I'll keep the market in play and see how everything develops.

To the question on why Politics is, for now only American Politics. With UK politics and the sort having their place in the world category, the answer is that as of now a large market of users is based in the US. In the future we may have different versions of the site based on where your located but as of right now we aren't focusing on that.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

Hi infernalmachine,

I'm settling once the "precincts reporting reach 95%-99%," so that there is no way of a turnover, unless it looks really bad. In some cases even at 58% someone is being trounced by the numbers and they can't possibly get back to tie or overcome so I settle early.

Regards,
Ryan

The market closes before the polls close, some in game betting is fine. We won't know the numbers of voters exactly until awhile after the polls have closed.

Ryan

Hi Truth,

Good point, I've know made a comment on that market with a link to this discussion.

Ryan

The good thing with CNN is that they have a simple listing of pledged delegates, and unpledged with totals, so that we don't have to use math to figure out totals. MSNBC doesn't have those total counts. The MSNBC stats require a bit of totaling up. And if my SAT scores have anything to say about my math scores, well......

On FOX, again however skewed they maybe they still report the story. And all media sites report infactual information. The 2004 election being a good example.

Ryan

FOX is a fine source for primary race information. The NYT has caused us headaches in trying settle markets, based on delegate counts. For other news the NYT would be fine.

And although the opinion of FOX News is skewed, they will still report something but just with a GOP slant. If enough people aren't happy with FOX we can put it below MSNBC?

Ryan

Hi destry,

Seeing as the market already has many bets on it, I'm going to keep the market open. But if the result of this question occurs in the 3 hours time difference (i.e. 3pm EST to 3pm PST) then we will void it. Otherwise it will be settled according to what happens.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor

These types of sales like the U.S. sales to Saudi Arabia can be prevented by Congress, but only if congress takes action to do this. So I think the market is fine, the only problem would be if the sale was canceled without any overt Congressional actions. Then the market would have to be voided.

Good question though, I have a feeling the sale would go through. Beefing up Australia as an ally against the rising red (China) wouldn't meet with much opposition.

Cheers,
Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor

I agree with Donal completely. People are always going to have a problem with particular markets. As has been said if it is structured well, it should be allowed to go on.

If a question comes up which is extremely malicious and vulgar then it should be voided, but none of those which have been put up as of yet are extremely vulgar in their terms.

Thanks for that article golwar, I'll add that in the comments section of the market in question.

Ryan

Yes, but they have recognized Kosovo as a independent nation, without formal recognition.