NewsWrangler's dashboard

NewsWrangler marked one of anaverageamerican's replies in Hubdub as useful. anaverageamerican replied to the problem "Suspend v Settlement Times".

NewsWrangler replied on April 11, 2008 17:11 to the problem "Incorrect Settlement?" in Hubdub:

Hmmm ... the background in the market references an 11-year old girl.

The settlement link references a 15-month-old girl.

The link included in the market background has expired -- so it would require some wrangling to find the original story.

As an aside, there was some kind of glitch on this yesterday, as the market showed "Settled" -- but gave no result of what the winning prediction was.

I sent a "Contact Us" email on that yesterday when I saw it, but didn't hear anything about it. It does show now as "Settled - 'Yes' ".

[Disclosure: I have no predictions in this market, past or present.]

(I'll post a link to this discussion in the market's comments thread.)

NewsWrangler replied on April 11, 2008 16:57 to the question "Any objections to me making predictions?" in Hubdub:

I also think that you ought to make predictions! -- for all the excellent reasons you enumerated, and more.

With open predictions, I don't think that it's necessary, or even a good idea, to also have an admin state a prediction in the market's comment field.

I think it's "too bad" that category editors can't play in the areas they likely enjoy the most :-( but I agree that's the price of "perception" that must be paid.

"In actual fact questions that get escalated go to Get Satisfaction so I don't play that role."

As an aside, (as you know), since my most recent non-satisfaction escalation, I've been sending escalation requests via Contact Us email -- where they have been promptly resolved, rather than posting them here in the Get Satisfaction forum.

My understanding is that the purpose of Get Satisfaction will be sharpened in the days/weeks to come -- however until then I'll continue to use the "Contact Us" route.

NewsWrangler replied on April 11, 2008 15:07 to the question "Any news about the Getsatisfaction "new interface"" in Get Satisfaction:

I don't understand the change in promoting terminology from "useful" to "this answers the question".

IF the plurality of topics by users (across all clients) were actually questions, then perhaps it would make sense ... but even then, in my view, it would still be simply registering an opinion.

I'd cheer-lead for you to revert to the common sense terminology used on most forums that have a "promote feature" -- using "useful", "helpful", etc., rather than constantly begging the question.

NewsWrangler marked one of Guy Fawkes (BANNED!)'s replies in Get Satisfaction as useful. Guy Fawkes (BANNED!) replied to the question "Any news about the Getsatisfaction "new interface"".

NewsWrangler started following the question "Editing?" in Get Satisfaction.

A comment on the question "Any news about the Getsatisfaction "new interface"" in Get Satisfaction:

BTW, I just tried to edit a "Comment". I received the same "loading your reply" window ... which froze. When I tried to close it, my comment was gone as well. A refresh did bring back the original comment intact (with no further option to edit it.) – NewsWrangler, on April 09, 2008 20:28

A comment on the question "Any news about the Getsatisfaction "new interface"" in Get Satisfaction:

Over in Hubdub, the "mark as useful" was used -- dare I say, more than it wasn't!

The problem with it was the repetition of the same comment in the message thread. With message threads exceeding 150 posts, this duplication was an annoyance -- not to mention confusing to a newbie.

Rather than move the starred message to the top, leave it in context, in the thread.

Maybe put a widget near the top of the question to allow users to view the "most useful" questions if they wanted to.

I'm sorry to see it go. – NewsWrangler, on April 09, 2008 20:25

NewsWrangler replied on April 09, 2008 19:49 to the question "Any news about the Getsatisfaction "new interface"" in Get Satisfaction:

FYI -- just tried to edit the above post. Same error.

Using Vista -- if that helps. (Vista sucks!)

NewsWrangler replied on April 09, 2008 19:48 to the question "Any news about the Getsatisfaction "new interface"" in Get Satisfaction:

The "edit" function isn't working for me ... when I click on "edit", I get a "glimpse of a window opening and a message saying "loading your reply to..." -- but that's all (other than a new "reply" window)..

Bottom line: I can't edit.

The new "15 minute" info about edit/delete is a nice touch.

What I'd like the most most would be a message PREVIEW feature, which would occur before posting the actual message.

That would enable me to correct any html errors, or allow other formatting changes I might wanna make, BEFORE posting.

As it is, if a message reply contains errors, that message, with errors, is emailed out to everyone subscribed to that post.

NewsWrangler replied on April 09, 2008 19:36 to the problem "Terrorism" in Hubdub:

When I first read this question, I took it to mean just what Mork said s/he intended it to mean (in his/her first post, above). Further, I immediately related it to the pundit's comments floating around that "a terrorist attack would be a big boost to John McCain" (as was noted in the background of the market question).

That said, it is difficult to write great questions like that. And, when there is a vocal minority raising objections it creates, in my view, a chilling effect on users willing to risk creating new, great, questions. (OTOH, debate is a "good thing".)

I do think that both if there was a "terrorist attack" that the Department of Homeland Security and/or The Pentagon would weigh in on it as such -- and, at the same time, I don't trust either to tell us the truth.

Bottom line, for me, I don't think this was a terrorist attack, and the market ought go on.

[Disclosure: I have no predictions, past or present, in this market.]

NewsWrangler started a conversation in Hubdub on April 09, 2008 18:11:

Hubdub in The New York Times ("Betting to Improve the Odds")

In the Technology Section of today's New York Times is an article captioned,
Betting to Improve the Odds, written by Steve Lohr.

The article writes about the rapid change in the use of prediction markets:

CORPORATIONS live and die by ideas, and many enterprises have used Web-based technologies, like blogs, wikis and social networks, to gather thoughts and hasten their way into new services, products and cost-saving steps.

"Now executives say they are harnessing a new Web tool, called prediction markets, to transform the idea pipelines inside their companies. Companies like the InterContinental Hotels Group, General Electric and Hewlett-Packard are using prediction markets to try to improve forecasting, reduce risk and accelerate innovation by tapping into the collective wisdom of the work force.

The article includes a linked reference to Hubdub:

For years, public prediction markets have been used for politics, like the Iowa Electronic Markets and Intrade, where buyers and sellers bet on which candidate will win a particular race. And there are prediction markets where people place bets on news events (Hubdub, among others), video game sales (simExchange) or movie box-office receipts (Hollywood Stock Exchange).

"These markets have often been more accurate than professional pollsters or market researchers. The idea is that the collected knowledge of many people, each with a different perspective, will almost surely be more accurate than an individual or small group or even experts. The concept has been championed by academic economists and was popularized by James Surowiecki’s 2004 book 'The Wisdom of Crowds.'

The full article can be read here.

NewsWrangler replied on April 08, 2008 20:03 to the question "Result of the vote" in Hubdub:

You may want to put a link to this topic on the other relevant topics, so that users who voted will get an email advising them of the results.

NewsWrangler started following the question "Result of the vote" in Hubdub.

NewsWrangler started following the question "Result of the vote" in Hubdub.

NewsWrangler replied on April 07, 2008 21:10 to the question "Proposed new procedure for dealing with gaming (part 2)" in Hubdub:

steph -- however that's not one of the available options ...

NewsWrangler replied on April 07, 2008 19:25 to the question "Proposed new procedure for dealing with gaming (part 2)" in Hubdub:

I will post the notification here on Get Satisfaction (across all three relevant threads).

Just checking ... did this get posted across all three relevant threads?

NewsWrangler replied on April 07, 2008 16:50 to the question "Proposed new procedure for dealing with gaming (part 2)" in Hubdub:

Therefore, instead I propose we do it by email with each user sending me an email of how they want to vote.

What is your plan (scheme in the UK ;-) to notify users to send you an email?

Are you leaving it to those users who happen to see the above post in this thread?

NewsWrangler marked one of BostonGraf's replies in Hubdub as useful. BostonGraf replied to the problem "Suspend v Settlement Times".

NewsWrangler replied on April 07, 2008 15:36 to the question "Proposed new procedure for dealing with gaming (part 2)" in Hubdub:

If no option has a simple majority then we will average and round to the nearest integer option number (round up on 0.5). E.g. votes of 1, 3, 4, 2, 2, 4 averages to 2.667 and therefore we would apply option 3 (fine down to H$1,000).

If no option has a simple majority (are you defining a simple majority as "one" [1] ?), what would be the effect of averaging the top two voted options, as opposed to averaging all of the votes?

I also think that if you are going to go the route of trying to get a vote on this from the user community then an email to all users is in order.

As has been mentioned by Destry in this thread, and by you in the earlier thread, different users are on this site on different days ...

This proposed vote feels problematic to me. It would be unfortunate if the results of the "vote" were worse than the consensus you claim you don't have.