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TruthWrangler replied on March 11, 2008 00:06 to the problem "Question incorrectly voided - Ohio Snow" in Hubdub:
Thank you, Leslie, for your response.
Of course, the Daily Summary, provided in the settlement link was continuously updated, hourly, and now shows the total history for that date. And, silly me, I didn't take a screen-shot (who knew ;-)
Looking at the hourly summaries, at the bottom of that linked page, shows the following precipitation and conditions, after the last time (5:51pm) referenced in my settlement request:
. .Time . . . . Precip ... Events . . . . Conditions:
6:46 PM .... 0.01 in . . Snow . . . . . Light Snow
6:51 PM .... 0.01 in . . Snow . . . . . Light Snow
6:59 PM .... 0.00 in . . Snow . . . . . Light Snow
7:14 PM .... 0.01 in . . Snow . . . . . Light Snow
7:28 PM .... 0.01 in . . Snow . . . . . Light Snow
7:46 PM .... 0.01 in . . Snow . . . . . Light Snow
7:51 PM .... 0.01 in . . Snow . . . . . Light Snow
8:01 PM .... 0.00 in . . Snow . . . . . Light Snow
8:11 PM .... 0.00 in . . Snow . . . . . Light Snow
8:17 PM .... 0.00 in . . Snow . . . . . Light Snow
8:44 PM .... 0.00 in . . Snow . . . . . Light Snow
8:51 PM .... 0.00 in . . Snow . . . . . Light Snow
9:38 PM .... 0.00 in . . . . . . . . . . . . Overcast
9:51 PM .... 0.00 in . . . . . . . . . . . . Overcast
10:51 PM .... N/A . . . . . . . . . . . . . Overcast
11:51 PM .... N/A . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scattered Clouds
That totals an additional .06" of precipitation.
Now, comes the tricky part -- as converting precipitation into snow is not an exact science (as I've learned in looking at all of this).
At <http://forum.onlineconversion.com/arc...>, at the bottom of the page, there is a reference to snow conversion:
For a really detailed study, see the following very informative report (127 pages) at the Meteorology Education & Training website of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: <http://www.meted.ucar.edu/norlat/snow...>
That report proposes a classification of snow into six main categories, with corresponding mean snow/water ratios as follows:
4:1 - very heavy snow
7:1 - heavy snow
10:1 - average snow
15:1 - light snow
20:1 - very light snow
25:1 - ultra light snow
So, while one could use the "15:1" ratio for the "light snow" condition, the conversion is also affected by the temperature :-( as is noted in that same reference.
Anyhow, applying the "somewhat faulty" 15:1 ratio to the .06" of precipitation =
.06 x 15 = 0.9" snow
Adding .9" snow to the amount I reported at 5:51pm (8.70") =
8.70" + .9 " = 10.6" -- which is a difference of 0.2" snow from the total reported for the entire day (10.8") [less than 1/4" difference]
Calculating in the reverse (subtracting from the day's total): 10.8" - .9" = 9.9" at 6:00pm
This is likely wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much information ... but I was curious, I guess.
And, I do understand that you probably can't accept this math as an authoritative source.
I also know that you can't un-void a question -- and even if HD did settle this, are wagers and percentages saved (internally), once the question has been voided?
Soooo ... it's too bad the settlement request didn't get picked up sooner --- (you may want to add this "information" to the new "weather rules"-- such that "hourly" questions cannot be accepted -- only "daily totals" to prevent something like this in the future) ... I had made some great, and risky, predictions in this market!
Thanks again for your kind response.
- Roger-
TruthWrangler started following the problem "Is there a time zone issue?" in Hubdub.
TruthWrangler replied on March 10, 2008 17:30 to the problem "Conrad Black: Does this market have an outcome discussed in mainstream media?" in Hubdub:
You could leave it suspended, and wait for a week or two for any news to filter out.
When some other celebrities and notables have been incarcerated, some news concerning their activities has been reported in the press.
Certainly, Lord Black is/was a notable, and Lady Black has yet to make her first permitted bi-monthly visit.
(then again, it could be reported that he is doing "kitchen and yard work" -- resulting in a void anyway ;-)
my cent-cent worth
TruthWrangler replied on March 10, 2008 14:11 to the problem "Settlement email problem with hedged bet gain reporting" in Hubdub:
TruthWrangler replied on March 10, 2008 13:25 to the question "Contentious questions (part 3)" in Hubdub:
I support the rules amendment referred to in the OP:
An amendment I propose making to the rules is as follows:
All questions should provide context in which they are created (e.g. through linking to a relevant news story). If the question is potentially contentious (e.g. about loss of life) then it must be in the context of a mainstream news story
As a news site we need to be able to follow the news that other news sources are following however we also need to avoid the risk of becoming considered a 'death casino'.
In my view, virtually any question has the potential of becoming contentious. A partial, and random list:
capital punishment
child slave trade
killing animals or torturing pets
gun control
sex offenders
electoral college
abortion
genocide
civil rights
drug testing
national identity card
religion
censorship
stem cell research
gays in the military
life support and/or removing life support
child abuse
European Union
school prayer
Guantanamo Bay
same sex marriage
whaling
DNA database
animals used for testing
official language for a country
That users care about death, war and life is "a good thing" -- and ought be encouraged.
To try to eliminate it from "the news" is unlikely.-
TruthWrangler started following the question "Contentious questions (part 3)" in Hubdub.
TruthWrangler marked one of Nigel Eccles' replies in Hubdub as useful. Nigel Eccles replied to the question "Contentious questions (part 3)".
TruthWrangler marked one of Donal's replies in Hubdub as useful. Donal replied to the question "Contentious questions (part 3)".
TruthWrangler marked one of kruijs' replies in Hubdub as useful. kruijs replied to the question "Contentious questions (part 3)".
TruthWrangler marked one of Destry's replies in Hubdub as useful. Destry replied to the question "Contentious questions (part 3)". TruthWrangler and 3 other people think it's one of the best replies.
TruthWrangler marked one of kruijs' replies in Hubdub as useful. kruijs replied to the question "Contentious questions (part 3)".
TruthWrangler reported a problem in Hubdub on March 09, 2008 21:05:
Question incorrectly voided - Ohio SnowThe question, Will Cleveland, Oh recieve 10 inches of snow as reported at Cleveland Hopkins Airport on March 8, 2008 by 6PM EST? was, in my view, incorrectly voided.
The category editor stated the reasons for voiding were:
"The issue with this market is that it can be interpreted in several ways--illustrated in the issues brought up in the comment section of this market. I think the best way to prevent these questions from being voided is to be specific as possible. When you say 10 inches of snow, make sure you state something that indicates "more than 10 inches" or "less than 10 inches"...something to avoid confusion! Thanks for the market though; I am just trying to be fair!"
The first comment was from a user, stating how s/he interpreted the question.
The second comment was from the category editor: "That's the way I read it, 10 inches of snow ON MARCH 8th between 12am and 6pm."
The third comment was from the originator of the question, confirming the first two comments, affirmatively.
All of the other comments concerned whether or not the question meant "10.000" inches of snow, or more than 10.000 inches of snow.
All of those comments are/were moot -- as there was 8.7" of snow at the location specified in the question. (Albeit there was a lot of snow throughout Ohio yesterday -- just not where the question specifically asked.
I requested settlement at 6:01pm EST, and included a link for a weather station located at the reporting location:
<http://www.wunderground.com/history/a...>
I don't question that the category editor wants to be fair -- however in this instance, the "comments" made on the question do not relate to the outcome of the question. As far as I can tell, the ambiguity of "what the question meant" took place after the expiration time of the question -- and were moot. FWIW, I made no comments for this question.
I request that this settlement be reconsidered, and that the question be settled as of the time of the first settlement request (6:00pm EST, yesterday) -- and that all predictions made after that time be voided.
TruthWrangler replied on March 09, 2008 17:07 to the problem "Delays in settlement" in Hubdub:
Can someone settle this soon?
(I know it's weekend ;-)
Will Cleveland, Oh recieve 10 inches of snow...
Thanks!
TruthWrangler replied on March 09, 2008 14:32 to the question "US Daylight Savings Time" in Hubdub:
Historically, there have been a number of major US institutions that remained on standard time year round... however that was pre-web, and I don't know how many, if any, still have that practice. The point is, keeping the servers on standard time is not without precedent ;-)
Ideally, the board would be configured for user-preference localization (user settings) such that any user (world-wide) could set their own time-offset from GMT (or UTC). I dunno how much of a hurdle that would be for HD to implement.
TruthWrangler asked a question in Hubdub on March 09, 2008 13:53:
US Daylight Savings TimeWith the change this morning to Daylight Savings Time, I see that markets are still set to PST.
Will there be manual changes made to the Suspension Time in existing markets?
Would it be helpful for an announcement to be made to users, advising there is now a +1 hour difference between PST and PDT. so that time-specific markets can be set accurately?
TruthWrangler replied on March 08, 2008 14:18 to the problem "Server down - any update?" in Hubdub:
TruthWrangler reported a problem in Hubdub on March 08, 2008 14:01:
Server down - any update?The server is currently down, for me.
Any estimated time when it will be up?
TruthWrangler replied on March 07, 2008 17:45 to the problem "Settlement email problem with hedged bet gain reporting" in Hubdub:
TruthWrangler replied on March 07, 2008 17:35 to the problem "Settlement email problem with hedged bet gain reporting" in Hubdub:
TruthWrangler replied on March 05, 2008 17:14 to the question "Proposed rule amendment: Contentious questions" in Hubdub:
Nigel,
As I understand the proposed amendment, I don't know that it will solve the issue.
Adding "Will either Reuters or the AP report that nn numbers of American soldiers were killed in Iraq in mm/yyyy?" isn't likely to make it any less contentious.
Ideally, it would -- but rationality and emotions are likely to perceive the question differently.
That said, any enhancement is welcome.
[FYI, I haven't participated or wagered in any of these markets.]
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