Volodya's dashboard

Volodya reported a problem in Hubdub on February 03, 2008 15:18:

Will this question be voided?

I would really appreciate an explanation of why this question was voided without paying out:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_t...
It meets all published criteria; unambiguous, a clear yes or no, etc. If in the future you want to amend your rules to exclude all predictions about events internal to Hubdub, that may make some sense, but it makes me crazy that you guys keep changing the rules in the middle of the game, without even an explanation.

Volodya replied on February 03, 2008 03:15 to the question "Comments Monitoring" in Hubdub:

Ah, that works. thanks!

Volodya replied on February 03, 2008 01:11 to the question "Comments Monitoring" in Hubdub:

Someone somewhere said that a "user number" is part of everyone's profile, and that it could be used as a way to identify hubdub staff, who would have low numbers. (I don't remember exactly where I saw this, between comments, getsatisfaction, and the forum... no way to search for it either). Is this right? If so, where exactly? I'm not seeing it. On a related subject, some of the most interesting discussion is taking place in the "comments" sections of particular predictions. One only discovers that by stumbling across it though. Can you add a mechanism to sort the questions on the home page by number of comments?

Volodya replied on February 02, 2008 22:41 to the question "Comments Monitoring" in Hubdub:

Fair enough. So, will you check on the two comments I mentioned, now that they've been pointed out, or should I repost them here as well?

Volodya asked a question in Hubdub on February 02, 2008 22:30:

Comments Monitoring

Do Hubdub staff continue to monitor comments after a prediction has been settled or voided, or are thoughts on the action taken better offered on this forum? Specifically, I asked questions or made comments here:
Will this question be voided?
and here:
Will Bill Clinton's shady uranium deal limit Hillary to less than 10% of the super tuesday Democratic votes?

Volodya replied on February 02, 2008 20:10 to the problem ""Will North Dakota Reach -50 degree tempuratures" Prediction" in Hubdub:

Apparently, they don't presently have the ability to roll back profits that were realized before a question was voided.

Volodya replied on February 02, 2008 19:58 to the question "Should Hubdub insiders who settle questions be allowed to make predictions?" in Hubdub:

I have no problem at all with letting the live beta run a bit longer, resetting everyone on, say, Monday, February 11, 12:01 AM PST (see, tarheelv, I'm learning which time zone to use!) That would give everyone ample time to get used to the idea that their "winnings", ill-gotten or not, will disappear. I'd even go further and suggest that even once hubdub is out of beta, the leaderboard be reset maybe quarterly, to allow new users a chance to reasonably compete. That would in turn allow an annual playoff between the top two or three predictors from each quarter, competing against a set of questions selected by hubdub staff, or maybe voted on by users. That's probably better, so everyone feels involved in the playoffs.

Volodya replied on February 02, 2008 19:40 to the problem ""Will North Dakota Reach -50 degree tempuratures" Prediction" in Hubdub:

Thanks for responding Tom. I'm not satisfied though. I daresay, one can find ambiguity in any prediction, if one looks hard enough. For example, let's consider the Super Bowl question presently atop your "most activity" board:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Patrio...
Seems straightforward, but what is meant by "win"? The team that scores the most points? The team that covers the point spread? Perhaps the Giants can "win" a moral victory by sacking Tom Brady three times? I'm not suggesting that this question is truly ambiguous and should be voided; of course it isn't, and shouldn't be, although for Las Vegas, the point spread is precisely what's meant by "win". But equally, the ND weather question, as worded, has precisely ONE correct answer: NO. There is one, and only one, temperature measurement system in general use in North Dakota: Fahrenheit. There is one generally accepted definition of temperature that's germane to this prediction. I would actually have preferred it if you'd voided this on the grounds that there is no such thing as "tempuratures"!

Volodya replied on February 02, 2008 19:09 to the question "Should Hubdub insiders who settle questions be allowed to make predictions?" in Hubdub:

I'm not quite ready to give up on hubdub, but I'm getting close. I think the matter of admins making predictions is a secondary concern. The real issue is, it's not a lot of fun to watch people climb the leaderboards by gaming the system, apparently without repercussions. I confess I posed a few "gaming" questions myself, in the interest of testing the limits and application of the rules, and hopefully improving the system. I took pains not to generate any big profits for myself, as a glance at my H$ will verify. Apparently, hubdub has no ability to roll back outcomes to where they would have been without gaming. That said, I think the only way you will retain credibility and users is to declare a winner in the first round of predictions, and reset everyone at H$1000. Presumably you've learned enough in these first few days of live use to eliminate at least the worst abuses.

Volodya replied on February 02, 2008 16:26 to the problem ""Will North Dakota Reach -50 degree tempuratures" Prediction" in Hubdub:

Tom Griffiths wrote:
"1) Is the question clear enough to be valid at all?
No. Given that two critical factors in determining the outcome are not specified in the question (a: Celsius or Fahrenheit; b: is wind-chill to be taken into account), the question is not valid."

This decision by hubdub's "official rep" is sufficiently inept and simply wrong as to probably cause me to lose interest in participating in hubdub. This question has a correct answer: NO. "Celsius or Fahrenheit" really should have been specified, but it's entirely reasonable to assume Fahrenheit is intended in Garrison, North Dakota, USA. More important, there was no need at all to specify temperature with or without wind chill. THE TWO ARE EXACTLY THE SAME THING. As as been repeated many times on this thread, temperature is a measurement, wind chill is a calculation. There is no ambiguity in the question in that regard, none at all. I'll stick around hubdub long enough to give you guys a chance to respond to this; depending on that response, I'm probably out of here for keeps. Hubdub is a great idea, but it's fun only if it's transparent and responsive, with a level playing field and well-defined, evenly applied rules. Until this decision, I thought you were really trying; now I doubt it very much.

Volodya replied on February 02, 2008 15:55 to the question "Should Hubdub insiders who settle questions be allowed to make predictions?" in Hubdub:

I don't care if moderators participate. Presumably they're interested in prediction or they wouldn't be involved in the first place. I'm willing to trust them to avoid conflict of interest until they prove themselves untrustworthy; it's not like real money is involved. I. do think they should be identified with an asterisk on the Leaderboards, mostly because they've had more time to amass H$.

Volodya replied on February 02, 2008 01:23 to the problem ""Will North Dakota Reach -50 degree tempuratures" Prediction" in Hubdub:

Nigel, electroaffinity is right. It may be too late in this instance, but you guys really need to be able to roll back a bad settlement or void to where it should have been, otherwise people so inclined will have every motivation to continue to misbehave. I suppose option 3 is your best choice right now.
pics4d-- if I read option 3 right, he would keep his stake (presumably substantial) but at least lose his winnings.

Volodya replied on February 02, 2008 01:13 to the problem ""Will North Dakota Reach -50 degree tempuratures" Prediction" in Hubdub:

I posted this as a comment; probably it should be here also:
Mr. or Ms. Miami (don't know you well enough to call you Sea), are you perhaps being just a bit disingenuous? I think you know perfectly well why people are "whining", as you put it. I'll spell it out anyway: I'll take your word that analysis is your life; it doesn't matter. It would be one thing if you rose to the top in a month, or maybe even two weeks. But, no matter how shrewd, clever, or lucky you are, I very much doubt that it's possible to amass nearly H$30,000 in less than four days without gaming the system. (I don't call it cheating, because the rules thus far are so vague and ill-defined that I'm not sure what "cheating" would mean. I don't even fault you, really.) Don't be surprised if others who didn't try to cut corners are annoyed to fall behind. I don't pretend to know exactly what methods you've used, although I do find it interesting that jaybob58102, the ostensible creator of this prediction, hasn't commented even once. Without casting any aspersions, "tempuratures" was a nice touch.

Volodya replied on February 01, 2008 21:35 to the problem ""Will North Dakota Reach -50 degree tempuratures" Prediction" in Hubdub:

So, Blue Sea Miami, you're claiming that -54 f actually was visible on an actual thermometer in Garrison ND? You can't really believe that! The fact that some ND stringer for AP filed a badly worded report says nothing at all about journalistic integrity, although it may well speak to journalistic competence.

Volodya replied on February 01, 2008 21:00 to the problem ""Will North Dakota Reach -50 degree tempuratures" Prediction" in Hubdub:

If it's true that
"2 Hubdub employees are here listening and participating"
please feel free to chime in any time, if only to say you're "investigating the problem" or something.

Volodya replied on February 01, 2008 20:06 to the problem ""Will North Dakota Reach -50 degree tempuratures" Prediction" in Hubdub:

Here's a direct link to the wrongly settled prediction:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_N...

Volodya reported a problem in Hubdub on February 01, 2008 19:44:

"Will North Dakota Reach -50 degree tempuratures" Prediction

I made no prediction on this topic, I just happened across it, so I have no dog in this fight. That said, the settlement of this prediction as "Yes" was absolutely, beyond any doubt, wrong. The topic asked about temperature, not wind chill. It makes no difference what the poster of the topic meant to say. Temperature and wind chill are not at all the same. Consult any dictionary for verification. Based on the actual topic as phrased, the answer can only be "No".