Poll Suggestion: Oscars 2020 - Early Best Picture Predictions

  • 1
  • Idea
  • Updated 2 weeks ago
We're in October and the awards season has begun.

While many movies have made their entrance in the Oscar race during the earlier festivals, some are already garnering positive buzz from critics, awards pundits and viewers and are considered right now as Best Picture contenders with two frontrunners.

Will Tarantino gets his first Best Picture award for his nostalgic love letter to Hollywood? Will Scorsese gets his second one for a nostalgia-driven gangster movie reuniting the last Mohicans of the genre? Will a dark horse spoil the party?

Which of the following Best Picture contenders would you bet your money on?

https://www.imdb.com/list/ls095972277/
Photo of 15yearsIMDber

15yearsIMDber

  • 3756 Posts
  • 4107 Reply Likes

Posted 1 month ago

  • 1
Photo of Paok-Kilkis

Paok-Kilkis

  • 3403 Posts
  • 3384 Reply Likes
Great idea ElMo! Let me tell you my thoughts about some of the categories. I think that the Irishman will take the most oscars including Best Picture, Director, and I hope for my man Pacino to win Supporting Actor. I also really hope Jordan Peele to win his second Oscar for Screenplay (both Get Out and Us will become future classics). Tarantino will get a nomination for Screenplay but he won't win. Christian Bale will probably be nominated for Leading Actor (and has good chances to win) and I'd really like Brad Pitt to be nominated either for Once upon a time in Hollyhood or Ad Astra (though it's very difficult to win). I haven't seen the movie Hustlers yet but something tells me that it will get a nomination for Adapted Screenplay. Scarlett Johansson will finally get her first nomination and propably Adam Driver. As for Joaquin Phoenix in Joker I haven't decided yet.
(Edited)
Photo of 15yearsIMDber

15yearsIMDber

  • 3756 Posts
  • 4107 Reply Likes
Great to see someone else rooting for Pacino, I'd be contented if he gets a nomination, not dreaming of an win but that would only be justice if he could equal the record of De Niro, Hoffman and Nicholson (who got 3 I know)

"The Departed" didn't deserve its win in my opinion and I wish it didn't because 2006 was a terrific year for other movies and "The Irishman" would have been a fine recipient... that said, I didn't see the film... and I'm counting the days :)
Photo of cinephile

cinephile

  • 1130 Posts
  • 1764 Reply Likes

I was planning to make this poll, I did the list 1 month ago: https://www.imdb.com/list/ls090853892/
Photo of cinephile

cinephile

  • 1130 Posts
  • 1764 Reply Likes
I'm too late a guess :(
Image result for too late meme
Photo of 15yearsIMDber

15yearsIMDber

  • 3756 Posts
  • 4107 Reply Likes
These things happen, I can't count how many times it happened to me as well...
Sorry, mate!
Photo of 15yearsIMDber

15yearsIMDber

  • 3756 Posts
  • 4107 Reply Likes
bump
Photo of 15yearsIMDber

15yearsIMDber

  • 3756 Posts
  • 4107 Reply Likes
Bump
Photo of cinephile

cinephile

  • 1130 Posts
  • 1764 Reply Likes
I predict Joker because

1- It is critically acclaimed (except for Metascore and rotten tomatoes)
2-Netflix movies like (Marriage Story and the Irishman never won to this date)
3-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, if they wanted a Quentin Tarantino film to win, they would have chosen Django Unchained or Inglourious Bastard.
4-1917 doesn't look that great.
5-Early reviews for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood an the other movies aren't exceptional.
6- Nobody talks about the Joker controversy and the endorsement of violence anymore.


7- If Joker doesn't win, I feel like the two movies with the most odds to win is The Irishman because Martin Scorsese is well known and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood because Quentin Tarantino never won an oscar for best director.


Conclusion, if Joker doesn't win, I will watch another ceremony, because each year my favorite movie get snub by the Academy.
Photo of Nikolay Yeriomin (Mykola Yeromin)

Nikolay Yeriomin (Mykola Yeromin), Champion

  • 3071 Posts
  • 4017 Reply Likes
About 6: well, some people continue to and there is also a fraction of people who are bitterly opposed to the way movie treats source material, but both seems to be fairly small. 

I saw it for the second time on 30th, it was one of the last showings in like 5PM which is rarely a crowd time and yet theater was surprisingly packed! Words "cultural phenomenon" does not seem that loud in this case and it really reminds me of 1989's Batmania: a sign that culture indeed is going in thirty-year circles, although with pleasant and interesting twists that really make the difference. 
Photo of cinephile

cinephile

  • 1130 Posts
  • 1764 Reply Likes
Totally agree
Photo of 15yearsIMDber

15yearsIMDber

  • 3756 Posts
  • 4107 Reply Likes
Answering your points:

2. Netflix will ultimately win but not this year. The Irishman is a gangster movie, no way. Marriage Story seems like the obligatory realistic tear-jerker a la Manchester by the Sea.

3. Tarantino is popular but divisive. Some loved Basterds and Django, and some hated them. He's not consensual and I think his overdue Oscar is directing, which he might get. And if Spike Lee didn't get a BP nomination for Do The Right Thing of Malcolm X, I can live with QT never having a BP winner in his resume even if OUATIH was the best film of the year.

4. 1990s: 3 war films won BP (4 if you count Dances With Wolves)
     2000s: 1 war film (2 if you count LOTR)
     2010s: 0 war film

5. ... and movies that get great reviews like Dolemite aren't BP material. Maybe it'll narrow the choice down to a few movies including the Joker.

6. Because the controversy shouldn't have happened and at the end it's only bad publicity giving good publicity, critics say the film endorses violence which is the best way for viewers to go check for themselves and realize it doesn't.

Still, Joker will not win. Here's why:

The film is too depressing and too divisive, and the Best Picture generally goes to the crowd-pleaser, the film with a positive message or centering on romance or friendship. What's more you've got to consider today's mentalities, Joker is about a white male protagonist with no strong female role, no ethnic or sexual minorities etc. check the last winners and you get my point. The closest to a BP theme is its message about handicap and the way it makes an outcast of you because of people's intolerance..

And you know why, for the same reasons, neither Irishman or OUATIH might win: too male-oriented, no 'message', no minorities, no strong and positive female role (don't tell me Margot Robbie has a strong role as Sharon Tate)
(Edited)
Photo of albstein

albstein

  • 791 Posts
  • 1545 Reply Likes
Meant to write the same thing about Joker. However, there's no controversy around Phoenix' performance, it's an obvious actor's dream and career highlight, Phoenix is due after several nominations and has a good chance to win this time.
Photo of Stephen Atwood

Stephen Atwood

  • 1348 Posts
  • 1163 Reply Likes

I don't think Downton Abbey has any chance, let alone PBS giving it any sizable marketing budget to get it enough visibility to gain momentum for a BP campaign.

FYC:
The Farewell (I) (2019)
and maybe Booksmart (2019) - this year's Lady Bird.
Photo of 15yearsIMDber

15yearsIMDber

  • 3756 Posts
  • 4107 Reply Likes
Isn't "Booksmart" this decade's "Superbad"? (And I mean that in a good way)
Photo of Stephen Atwood

Stephen Atwood

  • 1348 Posts
  • 1163 Reply Likes
It's been put that way... and it does fit to a degree. So? Yes.

I called it this year's Lady Bird in terms of female filmmakers as a sizable role in the production.
(Edited)
Photo of 15yearsIMDber

15yearsIMDber

  • 3756 Posts
  • 4107 Reply Likes
Ah ok...

I thought "Lady Bird" was a fantastic film, a simple film, obviously Gerwig's baby-project and the right coming-of-age story for the whole Millennial generation, and while it provided strong female characterization, I didn't like the way it was sucked in all these gender-related conversations, because it gave the false impression that Gerwig's film was recognized because it was time to recognize female directors and because of the MeToo movement... while it was just a damn good film and I'm sure it would have been a Best Picture nominee when there were only 5 nominees.

I wasn't impressed by Gerwig's direction but the screenplay was one of the finest of recent years and should have won the Oscar. I hope "Little Women" will play in the same league (looks like a more classic Oscar-baity film) but nothing can beat a personal film, and I might find "Booksmart" a better film than "Little Women", but it'll take a lot to make me enjoy it more than "Lady Bird". 
Photo of Stephen Atwood

Stephen Atwood

  • 1348 Posts
  • 1163 Reply Likes

Thought about creating a JFF 2020 Oscar thread. Might as well as use this one to help drive what movies should be Best Picture worthy.

Predicting the following Oscar categories based on only movies I've seen so far. I'll update it when new movies come in (and hopefully others will chime in accordingly). These are pretty much determined by my bias and not necessarily on the current buzz (as it omits Jennifer Lopez and Hustlers).

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Kang-ho Song, Parasite
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit

BEST ACTRESS
Lupita Nyong'o, US
Florence Pugh. Midsommar
Awkwafina, The Farewell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
Asier Etxeandia, Pain & Glory
Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz, Pain & Glory (Maybe or lead?)
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

BEST DIRECTOR
Ari Aster, Midsommar
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Pedro Almodóvar, Pain & Glory
Robert Eggers, The Lighthouse
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
 
BEST SCREENWRITING (LUMPING THE TWO CATS TOGETHER FOR SHEER LAZINESS)
Ari Aster, Midsommar
Joe Talbot, The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Pedro Almodóvar, Pain & Glory
The Peanut Butter Falcon
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Taika Waititi, JoJo Rabbit


(Edited)
Photo of 15yearsIMDber

15yearsIMDber

  • 3756 Posts
  • 4107 Reply Likes
We'll see how this list will look after you see Dolemite